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stormtracker

Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

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13 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Band moving into Keys likely contains sustained hurricane force winds.

3459d458c0df8a4acae136ca48cfe5fb.png

That may have cut power in many areas as most of the Key West cams have lost their signal.

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5 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Updated NAM (yeah useless for tropical systems...) 

has landfall near Marco island and up the spine of FL into central-SW GA.

Implication:  slight shift right=E

Not the 3k which should be of better use here....West of the 12k:

nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_28.png

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Even though the wind field is fairly broad, you would have to think the winds will start to come up a bit at some point. 120 mph is fairly low for the current pressure.

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1 minute ago, USCG RS said:
6 minutes ago, friedmators said:
Almost cleared out

Capture.thumb.JPG.111e5175f9cc039f4480ed39731b76c1.JPG
 

Stadium effect starting to show up on here and sat

Hate to say it, but the core is doing what it has to in order to ramp up again and respond to the pressure falls to get back to Cat 4. That's a mean OEW developing and about to take over.

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There is a thread for adding links of live feeds and comments about them. Please take talk of live feeds there 

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Hate to say it, but the core is doing what it has to in order to ramp up again and respond to the pressure falls to get back to Cat 4. That's a mean OEW developing and about to take over.

You still capping her at high cat 4 for lf?

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With such a broad wind field I don't think winds will get above 140-145. Also, Irma has a limit window until shear inhibits further strengthening. I also bet that broad outer wind max is making it hard for the winds to pick up near the core.

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2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Looks like there is still a double eye/wind max

 

recon_AF302-2911A-IRMA.png

Nah... that's just the OEW then what's left of the IEW, doesn't look nearly as obvious as it was earlier either.

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Pressure doesn't look like it's changed since last pass.  Double wind max is a lot less pronounced.

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3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:
13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:
Hate to say it, but the core is doing what it has to in order to ramp up again and respond to the pressure falls to get back to Cat 4. That's a mean OEW developing and about to take over.
 

You still capping her at high cat 4 for lf?

I have no clue, I guess if I had a gun to my head I'd say it gets back to 145-150mph at some point. It looks to be ramping back up and the pressure drops will have to matter if the new eyewall takes over. But there's 88-90F water for a while coming up and it could really go to town. We'll see. 

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I have a question, and I'm sorry if this is really dumb.


I realize there's a double wind max, and this inner and outer eye wall going on -- but, what stops first wind max from reaching 140-145, and containing itself inside the other outer wind max? No need to ELI5, I've been researching and reading every single post about hurricanes that I could possibly find for the last 12 years, but, that is something that I truly do not understand. I'd really love for someone to explain, if they could. 

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