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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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1 minute ago, SP said:

I was watching the radar and his island took about as bad a hit as one could draw up.  When you compare the scenes emerging from other islands that did the same, one has to wonder if he had a survivable structure/bunker. St Martin looks bad.

He's in a concrete win cellar. I doubt they have power though. 

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2 minutes ago, SP said:

I was watching the radar and his island took about as bad a hit as one could draw up.  When you compare the scenes emerging from other islands that did the same, one has to wonder if he had a survivable structure/bunker. St Martin looks bad.

Necker Island is a island and is located in British Virgin Islands. The estimate terrain elevation above seal level is 16 meters. Looks a the highest point is 25 meters.

 

One hopes that the surge + waves didn't come in higher than that.

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Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

It is wrong.  Have been listening and they repeated that it was just 1 fatality and are trying to get that info out there to correct the other info.  The PM had been on a Sat phone when he had originally called.

Back on topic - Jose just declared a Hurricane but am wondering how much Irma has contributed to upwelling and SST cooling.  If I am reading this right, it looks like it is cooler closer to the coast of FL vs by the Gulf Stream -

 

florida-sst-09062017.jpg

North of PBI, its always cooler near the coast - that's the shelf water / countercurrent running down from the north.  South of PBI the GS runs within a few miles of the coast (and there's barely any shelf, which is why surge is relatively low).  In that region even cat 5 storms can intensify basically all the way until landfall.  Tons of TCHP in those near-shore waters.

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Necker Island is a island and is located in British Virgin Islands. The estimate terrain elevation above seal level is 16 meters. Looks a the highest point is 25 meters.

 

One hopes that the surge + waves didn't come in higher than that.


75 feet? Would hope not


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

North of PBI, its always cooler near the coast - that's the shelf water / countercurrent running down from the north.  South of PBI the GS runs within a few miles of the coast (and there's barely any shelf, which is why surge is relatively low).  In that region even cat 5 storms can intensify basically all the way until landfall.  Tons of TCHP in those near-shore waters.

Makes sense.  Interesting that you have that counter-current.

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24 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

As far as surge goes in Florida, I am worried that even it does weaken, that this will be like Katrina and produce a cat 5 level surge even if it landfalls at sat a cat 3.

Andrew's surge was 16.9', and that was on a direct westerly course.  Fortunately, the only thing the surge really damaged was the BK HQ.  Of course, been a ton of development on the coast since Andrew.

I don't see surge being a huge problem if FL - mostly wind and general flooding.  Not Katrina or Harvey type flooding though.  E coast of FL is a different animal

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I know I asked this question earlier and was abruptly told no, but it does appear that a very large intense band of convection is forming around the eyewall. Looks to me as if a concentric eyewall is forming, but please excuse me if I'm incorrect. 

 

Starting to me to look like a concentric eyewall - the most defined outer eye wall i've seen since Monday.

 

 

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Just now, jpeters3 said:

 

Starting to me to look like a concentric eyewall - the most defined outer eye wall i've seen since Monday.

 

 

I'm not sure, I switched over to composite and just looks like very intense banding around the eye, hence I deleted my post. 

With the recent pressure drop I doubt we're about to see an ERC. 

Anyway looks like both recon planes in Irma are headed home.

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

 

Starting to me to look like a concentric eyewall - the most defined outer eye wall i've seen since Monday.

 

 

 Inner one looks about 11nm (inner edge); outer is 30nm (inner edge)

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24 minutes ago, canderson said:

The 1,000 Barbuda death number IS NOT CORRECT. The tweet later repeatedly mentions the line was awful and they weren't clear on that number and likely meant buildings. 

Only 1 fatality reported to date. 

Barbuda only has 1600 people

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7 minutes ago, cwc said:

Andrew's surge was 16.9', and that was on a direct westerly course.  Fortunately, the only thing the surge really damaged was the BK HQ.  Of course, been a ton of development on the coast since Andrew.

I don't see surge being a huge problem if FL - mostly wind and general flooding.  Not Katrina or Harvey type flooding though.  E coast of FL is a different animal

How many examples of a LARGE cat 4/5 landfalling in southern Florida though?  I'm just throwing it out there.  Certainly don't have intimate knowledge of the coastal areas.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not sure, I switched over to composite and just looks like very intense banding around the eye, hence I deleted my post. 

With the recent pressure drop I doubt we're about to see an ERC. 

Anyway looks like both recon planes in Irma are headed home.

 

Yeah, honestly it's been hard to tell with this particular storm.  I've thought an ERC was about to begin several times, but the outer eyewalls seem to have merged with the inner without much disruption.  

Edit: Agreed - there seems to be no sign of the outer ring impeding the inner, or the storm weakening so who knows...

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How many examples of a LARGE cat 4/5 landfalling in southern Florida though?  I'm just throwing it out there.  Certainly don't have intimate knowledge of the coastal areas.

1926 Miami hurricane was a large storm. Also I've seen damage estimates from that scenario today and it would likely be the costliest natural disaster in US history.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

How many examples of a LARGE cat 4/5 landfalling in southern Florida though?  I'm just throwing it out there.  Certainly don't have intimate knowledge of the coastal areas.

I have been asking this question for a little bit now. Anyone have an idea of what the surge + waves rolling into Miami would be in a worst case trajectory?

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1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

 

Yeah, honestly it's been hard to tell with this particular storm.  I've thought an ERC was about to begin several times, but the outer eyewalls seem to have merged with the inner without much disruption.  

Saw that yesterday. How much research on high end Cat 5's in other basins? Is this something that happens to other storms?

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Just now, Random Chaos said:

Saw that yesterday. How much research on high end Cat 5's in other basins? Is this something that happens to other storms?

ERCs are still a poorly understood phenomena.  It's hard to actually make them happen in simulations, so that they can be studied in a "controlled" setting.

Also, it's rare that such an intense hurricane sits within a region of good radar coverage for so long, so there probably aren't many prolonged observations of this behavior. 

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How many examples of a LARGE cat 4/5 landfalling in southern Florida though?  I'm just throwing it out there.  Certainly don't have intimate knowledge of the coastal areas.

Dunno.  My knowledge is merely anecdotal.  During Andrew I lived less than 1 mile west of BK HQ.  The surge receded fairly quickly, and I don't recall flooding to be an issue at all.  But like I said, back then there was a lot of mangrove on the coast which is now heavily populated.  

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First time in many years we have seen three hurricanes lined up in the Atlantic and Gulf. And one of those recording breaking. But back on topic Irma really is remarkable holding this intensity so long. And remaining so symmetrical. Pretty rare esp in Atlantic for very long duration. Here's my question though. If the atmospheric conditions look the same the next few days and water temps get warmer and if it avoids any major land interaction, why can't Irma hold as a high end cat 5 and not weaken as quick as NHC has it? I get ERC's will cause fluctuation and I know as it nears the US some shear will be introduced but up till then I'm not so sure this will weaken as quick as NHC has it

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4 hours ago, Tatamy said:

In August 1992 Hurricane Andrew hit Homestead, FL as a Cat 5. Destruction in the southern Miami suburbs was unprecedented. In April 1993 my wife and I took a vacation to south Florida. We drove around the Homestead area. At the time there were undeveloped areas along with ravaged neighborhoods. We drove down Palm Dr. (SW 344th St.) which is the road that leads to the Turkey Point Nuclear Plant. Destruction in the area was total (The nuclear plant was okay and back in operation). Entire forests were ripped out of the ground by the roots and the trees were laying on their sides. The tops of the trees were pointed towards the east as the center of the storm had passed slightly to the north of that street.  Of course they were dead. If you are familiar with south Florida it is topsoil layered on top of coral. The coral has the consistency of concrete and has a tan color. The trees that I saw were covered in this tan dust - it had an apocalyptic look to it. In any case if you live or know people who live in South Florida you should make plans on where you are going to weather the storm. If you have a concrete safe room in your home you might be okay. If you do not you are not going to be safe there. If you are in a low lying area that can flood plan to leave. Same goes if you in the Keys. Know where your neighborhood shelter is located. If you are going to drive north it is 5 hours and 30 minutes to Jacksonville and 4 hours to Orlando - without traffic. Don't wait until later in the week to make this decision. The highways will be jammed once people start to realize what this storm can do. While it is not definite that the storm will make a direct hit in the Miami area the simple fact is that numerous model runs are indicating exactly that. While we all know that the rule regarding these forecast models is to wait until we get closer to the event the simple fact is by the time a Hurricane Watch is issued it will probably be too late to leave due the amount of traffic that will be going on to the highways.          

I saw a documentary about Andrew a few years ago and it was scary how much damage it caused.  The only other time I've seen that level of destruction was Haiyan in the Philippines (which I believe was the strongest landfalling hurricane on record at 190 mph, just 5 mph shy of its peak at 195 mph) and the Indonesian Tsunami in 2004.   I didn't see any documentaries about Mitch in 1998 although that must've caused the same kind of catastrophic damage down in Central America (over 10,000 deaths!)  Some of the scenes in the documentary were right out of something out of the Planet of the Apes, with deserted streets and buildings leveled everywhere and no signs of people anywhere but roving bands of chimps and orangutans that had escaped from a zoo during the storm running down the streets of deserted towns and cities.

 

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think this point has been emphasized enough. The gridlock is going to be incomprehensible as folks try to escape northward out of the peninsula...they need to impose a travel deadline.

Yes, Ray, Rita showed what kind of a disaster the evacuation itself can become!

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