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Major Hurricane Irma

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Even though the model spread amongst the 4 major global models (Euro, UK, CMC, and GFS) was more than it was at 12Z, given that the Euro solution didn't really change from 12Z to 0Z, maintaining that probably catastrophic track right up the SE FL coast, and given the superior Euro verification scores in the 3-4 day timeframe, I'm thinking there's no way the NHC changes their forecast track at 5 am.  i..e., that's a long way of saying I agree with you, lol.  

Yea. But spread aside, I did mention the 0z GEFS members and how that relates to the 0z Euro. 

To me, it's not that important that we have spread; it's knowing what's the main cause of it. We have a potent trough that begins interacting with Irma right as she closely approaches SE FLA. As a result small differences in track --to the south or north-- are being greatly amplified over time. 

But if we determine Irma's position around hr 72 is closest to the 0z Euro--what is the most likely outcome given the UL depiction at that hr across all guidance? To me it results in a first LF close to Miami.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905631742391762944/photo/1

#Irma has now had winds of 185 mph for 33 hrs - no other TC around the globe has been this strong for so long in satellite era (since 1966).pic.twitter.com/RKorceW6nS
 
Previous record was 24 hr set by Supertyphoon Haiyan in 2013.

 

I would think Irma would have been "retired" just for this fact alone.  After what we're seeing from the islands yesterday, it's a given now.  That St. Maarten video someone shared about an hour ago on here is just tearing me up.  Such a beautiful island...damn you Irma! :(

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The folks at NHC always do critically important work, but what they do over the next 48 hours and how they communicate it to the public is going to be hugely important. Pretty tremendous levels of responsibility and stress.

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I feel strongly that SE FL is going to take a direct and I have felt this for days. If you average out the tracks of the GFS and Euro from the last few days the track is very close to the Northern most keys, over Dade County and then back offshore near Palm Beach with a secondary landfall in SC. I also see no reason why Irma won't be at minimum a high end cat 4 on approach to FL, and it could be much deeper and larger than it currently is.

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3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

So EVERY model has had an East-East Northeast bias with Irma so far:

bia.png

I think this image probably reflects the difficulties in forecasting the speed (i.e. most all have been too slow at those leads), with a touch of north bias in there as well, which is probably tied into the speed errors)

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25 minutes ago, Raine1212 said:

This couldn't not get any closer on head, this is worries me, I don't think anyone is preparing around here. I've noticed we barely get aal11_2017090700_track_gfs.pngmentioned anywhere.

You can essentially eliminate half of those northern/eastern members based on how off they were between 0z and Irma's current position...

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I think this image probably reflects the difficulties in forecasting the speed (i.e. most all have been too slow at those leads), with a touch of north bias in there as well, which is probably tied into the speed errors)

 

If the storm is moving NW, and the models were too slow, shouldn't that cause a SE bias and not a NE bias?

 

Edit, looks like in the short term that's exactly what it is showing.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:
4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:
I think this image probably reflects the difficulties in forecasting the speed (i.e. most all have been too slow at those leads), with a touch of north bias in there as well, which is probably tied into the speed errors)
 

If the storm is moving NW, and the models were too slow, shouldn't that cause a SE bias and not a NE bias?

The image posted was while the storm was moving due west (and for awhile, WSW)....

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2 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

GEFS 6z mean looks to be slightly west of the op

Another correction west for the GFS.

That was notably west of the 0z GEFS. Also much less spread on approach to SE Fla.

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Locked and loaded folks now i'll pray alot.  locals are staying including myself or as the old song by the impressions goes people get ready theirs a train a coming you don't need ticket you just get on board. LOL.

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29 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It seems like there is some confusion among local residents regarding who should evacuate.  I've heard of some able-bodied Floridians evacuating inland locations outside flood prone areas.  I can understand that if you want to avoid potential inconvenience, power outages etc, but it could contribute to shortages and traffic jams etc, which impact coastal residents who really do need to evacuate

From what I've been seeing you are correct.  

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10 hours ago, toller65 said:

I was just browsing for some data on Miami topography and ran across this http://en-us.topographic-map.com/places/Miami-7034739/ . 

It would appear to me that if storm surge from Irma exceeds 10 feet, a very high percentage of the city of Miami will be inundated by salt water...

Question for the experts:   Shouldn't we model/forecast probability for the most worrisome possibility?

To me, the chance of a 15-20 foot storm surge/storm swell in the Miami area is the biggest worry.  Experts:  what are the

probabilities that so much of the Miami area could get such significant inundation?  Why would people not evacuate in areas where they could likely get inundated?

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4 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Question for the experts:   Shouldn't we model/forecast probability for the most worrisome possibility?

To me, the chance of a 15-20 foot storm surge/storm swell in the Miami area is the biggest worry.  Experts:  what are the

probabilities that so much of the Miami area could get such significant inundation?

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ETSS&area=GOM_EAST&plot=srg&loop=1#contents

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

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3 minutes ago, WildFlower said:

From what I've been seeing you are correct.  

So the people by the coast should leave first and the people inland should wait?

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14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Another correction west for the GFS.

That was notably west of the 0z GEFS. Also much less spread on approach to SE Fla.

Looks like 0z GFS was a fluke run.  There are no GEFS members that far east now.

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Reviewing the last 20 IR slides, the circumference of Irma is getting larger now. She may have lost some bite but she is definitely increasing in overall mass. 

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This will likely be my last post for the day as this forum is decidedly against me communicating. So I figure I'll leave today with this gem. Amazing. Just absolutely amazing.

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2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

That's the diameter of the total circulation, not the core.

 

2 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

That's the diameter of the total circulation, not the core.

I understand that, is this the largest ever recorded that size in the Atlantic?

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I understand that, is this the largest ever recorded that size in the Atlantic?

Nah, not even top 5.

Sandy is the biggest.
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