Major Hurricane Irma

[WildFlower]

10 minutes ago, JoMo said:

FWIW, the Euro 'gusts' product is showing gusts probably 120-130, takes the center of the eye just to the west of Boynton Beach.

Much appreciate your FWIW... the "gusts" you mention are much more in line with my expectations of "gusts".  I'll be more careful and double check what I "think" I'm seeing before I post.  Still praying for something unexpected to occur to knock her block off before SO FL approach.  Peace

[jbenedet]

29 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

From what I can tell, through 48 hours the euro is just faster and farther south with the track, so at 72 hours it has made it farther west before the turn arrives.  

Simple enough, but the southeast Florida pass can be further simplified to the first part of what you originally stated, which is quoted above. To say it slightly differently, the further south track has a more west component so it travels further west over the same amount of time and feels the trough--which is coming in from the north--later. As a result she recurves later and makes LF in/near Miami. The GEFS clusters clearly show this as well.

Gven the euro's far superior verification scores for the short term track thus far, I'm hedging strongly in favor of a LF in southeast Fla. and won't begin to question this forecast until/if Irma's short term movement deviates notably north of the 0z euro's track over the next 48 hrs.

[Kleimax]

At 240 Euro has Jose about to slam south Florida again!

[nycsnow]

Nam east again 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Simple enough, but the southeast Florida pass can be further simplified to the first part of what you originally stated, which is quoted above. To say it slightly differently, the further south track has a more west component so it travels further west over the same amount of time and feels the trough--which is coming in from the north--later. As a result she recurves later and makes LF in/near Miami. The GEFS clusters clearly show this as well.

Gven the euro's far superior verification scores for the short term track thus far, I'm hedging strongly in favor of a LF in southeast Fla. and won't begin to question this forecast until/if Irma's short term movement deviates notably north of the 0z euro's track over the next 48 hrs.

Even though the model spread amongst the 4 major global models (Euro, UK, CMC, and GFS) was more than it was at 12Z, given that the Euro solution didn't really change from 12Z to 0Z, maintaining that probably catastrophic track right up the SE FL coast, and given the superior Euro verification scores in the 3-4 day timeframe, I'm thinking there's no way the NHC changes their forecast track at 5 am.  i..e., that's a long way of saying I agree with you, lol.  

[nycsnow]

Yup nam is a scraper again, these upper air features are screwing models. Some ensembles still have ma/ northeast track 

[mempho]

I'm somewhat surprised that they didn't go with a hurricane watch on the SE FL coast in the last package. I know it would be early but I was sort of expecting the NHC to go with extra lead time.

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[Snowman99]

Eh..6 hours isn't that much of a difference at this rate. They'll be issued late this morning. Everyone knows they're coming, a lot of people are already leaving.  NHC usually does everything by the book.

[psv88]

24 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Yup nam is a scraper again, these upper air features are screwing models. Some ensembles still have ma/ northeast track 

It's been ots the whole time 

[Random Chaos]

Saint Martin from Dutch navy:

 

[UpstateSCBud]

5 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Saint Martin from Dutch navy:

 

Could you translate for those of us who don't speak freaky deaky dutch?

[MDScot]

 

Per Google "The aerial images from the NH90 helicopter above St.Maarten. Huge ravage is clearly visible"

Huge ravage is a good way to express what this storm is doing. 

 

[Random Chaos]

1 minute ago, MDScot said:

 

Per Google "The aerial images from the NH90 helicopter above St.Maarten. Huge ravage is clearly visible"

Huge ravage is a good way to express what this storm is doing. 

 

Thanks! BBC had posted that tweet and a brief description of what it was, but not a translation. This is what BBC said: "The Dutch navy has posted a video taken from a helicopter above Saint Martin which shows widespread damage on the island.They also said that the island's airport is unreachable, and they are prioritising deliveries of help and supplies.Saint Martin is divided between the Netherlands and France."

[lakeeffectkid383]

Did anyone else notice the NHC finally dropped down Irma's wind speeds at the 5am advisory...? Down to 180mph lol. 

[Random Chaos]

I did notice. IR showed the eye briefly occluding, and 248nm radar shows an inner/outer eyewall. I suspect the poor eye appearance is due to an ERC. Storm is probably weaker than 180mph, but with the ERC several hours in and the eye clearing, should be strengthening again. I suspect we will see it back to 185mph sometime during this morning's recon.

[Random Chaos]

6z GFS run - tad closer to Miami, but still not onshore, at hr 78.

[Mountain_Patch]

2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

6z GFS run - tad closer to Miami, but still not onshore, at hr 78.

It would have to make up a good bit of latitude for that run to work.

[delijoe]

I don't get it.... 0z Monday on the Euro the center is over Vero Beach.  On the GFS it's about 100 miles ENE of that.

Shouldn't these models be in closer agreement this close in...

Looks like landfall around Charleston, SC on the GFS

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, delijoe said:

I don't get it.... 0z Monday on the Euro the center is over Vero Beach.  On the GFS it's about 100 miles ENE of that.

Shouldn't these models be in closer agreement this close in...

Not really. It's a major hurricane after all. Very un-predictable systems usually.

[UpstateSCBud]

Looks like Jose is interacting with Irma and getting absorbed by it at hr 108.

[taylorsweather]

3 minutes ago, delijoe said:

I don't get it.... 0z Monday on the Euro the center is over Vero Beach.  On the GFS it's about 100 miles ENE of that.

Shouldn't these models be in closer agreement this close in...

You're quibblling over 100 miles 3.5 days out?  I'd say that's fair agreement in all honesty given the complexity.  The eventual location will be dependent on track to that area and then the shape, location, and strength of the trough over the NE.  

[delijoe]

2 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

You're quibblling over 100 miles 3.5 days out?  I'd say that's fair agreement in all honesty given the complexity.  The eventual location will be dependent on track to that area and then the shape, location, and strength of the trough over the NE.  

The problem is this 100 miles is the difference between total devastation of the Florida east coast and dodging a bullet.  If the eyewall misses the coast it'll make a huge difference in damage and lives... and hopefully before it reaches SC it weakens enough that it won't be nearly as devastating...

[taylorsweather]

Just now, delijoe said:

The problem is this 100 miles is the difference between total devastation of the Florida east coast and dodging a bullet.  If the eyewall misses the coast it'll make a huge difference in damage and lives... and hopefully before it reaches SC it weakens enough that it won't be nearly as devastating...

You cannot expect better agreement given the complexity.  Both sets of solutions (and others) are possible given the players on the field.  You may not know if it'll hit MIA until it does or does not.  Unfortunately, planning for Irma will be a PITA.

[Jebman]

The uncertainty of hurricanes is what drives meteorologists crazy.

[CoastalWx]

 You guys need to take it easy, on some of the posters asking questions. It's OK to ask questions if someone does not know.  Yes it is perfectly natural, for 100 mile differences to occur in models when you are four or five days out. 

[Jebman]

Check out Masiello on the complexity of the various circulations that are influencing and that will influence where Irma goes:

 

[TPAwx]

The Euro, along with the GEFS, should be enough to convince official/people in Miami Dade to accelerate evac protocols. Very tough around and up to say Ft Myers, which is still east of the projected track but it won't take much of a shift to spell disaster for those areas. Not sure about other areas but here in Tampa gas stations are low or out. It's going to be sheer panic if the Euro or GFS shift West and cause the NHC to adjust the track significantly.

[Raine1212]

This couldn't not get any closer on head, this is worries me, I don't think anyone is preparing around here. I've noticed we barely get mentioned anywhere.

[TPAwx]

The motion portion of the NHC 5am discussion gives a good sense of the upcoming dilemma.  Weighting Euro at this point.

 

The initial motion is 290/15.  The hurricane is currently being
steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next
48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in
the forward speed.  After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough
digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a
break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward.  The timing of
the turn is the most important question and one still filled with
uncertainty.  The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAViGEM are the
models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula.  The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the
middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern
portion of the Florida Peninsula.  The GFS, Canadian, and GFS
Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of
the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States.  The
new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the
Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and
it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern
Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into
southern South Carolina by 120 h.   Users are again reminded not to
focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days
3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.

[taylorsweather]

1 minute ago, Raine1212 said:

This couldn't not get any closer on head, this is worries me, I don't think anyone is preparing around here. I've noticed we barely get 

mentioned anywhere.

Evans GA?