yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like Irma is about to get pulled north (the start of it) between 66 and 72... am I seeing that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, SACRUS said: Don, excellent summary. One note the Great Miami Hurricane I think you are referring to was n 1926. The others for reference 3 of the 4 basically going right through or very close to both Miami and Tampa, dont think that is in play here but interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GFS seems pretty much right on with the NHC forecast through Hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Don, excellent summary. One note the Great Miami Hurricane I think you are referring to was n 1926. The others for reference Yes, it was 1926. I had a typo. Thanks for posting the tracks of the Category 4 hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 North turn made by Irma at 78... looks to graze SE FL with western eyewall perhaps... but eye should stay just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 90 moving due N... eye stays off shore... but SE FL gets pounded anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 it's pretty much the same spot off of Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GFS misses SE FL coast/Miami by about 25-30 miles - slight shift east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 TT makes it look like there is a slight jog NNE between 90 and 96... but its prob noise and still moving N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 102 moving N... or perhaps just east of north... looks like NE FL will be spared the winds that SE FL got earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Slightly more west than 18z 4 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: it's pretty much the same spot off of Florida 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: GFS misses SE FL coast/Miami by about 25-30 miles - slight shift east... Come on folks. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 East shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 102 definite NNE movement. Almost NAM like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: GFS misses SE FL coast/Miami by about 25-30 miles - slight shift east... And 50+ miles offshore as Irma goes by Daytona Beach. Good run for Florida if you want to reduce major damage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Come on folks. Which is it? Definitely a touch east, but fairly minor. However, that minor difference could be a massive difference for SE FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 114 headed due N... looks like a NE SC hit this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Come on folks. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Come on folks. Which is it? Considering the GFS is averaging being off by over 200 miles at 96 hours with this storm I think I'd just call a 20-30 mile shift east more or less the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Def more east That's 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Secondary trough over NE pulls Irma slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Look out Charleston @114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Dunkman said: Considering the GFS is averaging being off by over 200 miles at 96 hours with this storm I think I'd just call a 20-30 mile shift east more or less the same. Was about to say the same, this change is the textbook definition of model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Still moving North at 120 looks like NC/SC border landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Come on folks. Which is it? Virtually the same spot as 18z until about West Palm Beach. Then the next 6 hours is NE. Now headed straight to Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Kleimax said: Look out Charleston @114 Nope further northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Myrtle Beach LF at 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Looks like landfall Myrtle Beach area at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 A good thing for everyone to remember is the GFS has been shifting east and west every other run for the past two days, and that's to be expected, consistency probably won't be achieved for another day or two of runs. However if the Euro is around the same mark and not jumping around tonight again too, I'll be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Big shift east at 120 looks to be heading in between Charleston and Myrtle Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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