psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 She looks VERY healthy now. Rapidly expanding in size, huge decrease in cloud top temps. Best she has looked in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Is that the same general area where the 1935 hurricane reached Cat 5 status? No. The Labor Day cane in '35 achieved Cat 5 status long before FL Bay in the Eastern Straits. It went directly over Islamorada in the Keys and whipped the town clean off the map and took years before it was habitable again. Here's the track of the canes lifespan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: No. The Labor Day cane in '35 achieved Cat 5 status long before FL Bay in the Eastern Straits. It went directly over Islamorada in the Keys and whipped the town clean off the map and took years before it was habitable again. Here's the track of the canes lifespan. Thanks! One of the interesting stories I heard about that one was that the winds were so fierce that friction with the sand actually caused sparks and fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENC2017 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 What is keeping it doing a rapid turn west and missing Nc entirely? Everyone here is scared this will be a rerun of Matthew and be expected to turn and doesn't at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Inner eye looks to be in the flat tire phase now, some cool satellite pics ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: No. The Labor Day cane in '35 achieved Cat 5 status long before FL Bay in the Eastern Straits. It went directly over Islamorada in the Keys and whipped the town clean off the map and took years before it was habitable again. Here's the track of the canes lifespan. Near as I can figure, the closest analogy is Donna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, ENC2017 said: What is keeping it doing a rapid turn west and missing Nc entirely? Everyone here is scared this will be a rerun of Matthew and be expected to turn and doesn't at the last minute. If I'm not mistaken, there is a shortwave to the west that will grab Irma and pull it inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The westward shift on 0z Euro keeps the core of eastern eyewall just west of the big SE FL population centers. New run old run Who knows though. It's really gonna be a crapshoot exactly where it tracks over Florida Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Are we avoiding Cuban airspace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Who knows though. It's really gonna be a crapshoot exactly where it tracks over Florida Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Those shifts are all in the margin of error at this point. 30-50 mile swings are nothing. The eye could be that big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Who knows though. It's really gonna be a crapshoot exactly where it tracks over Florida Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The model runs today and tomorrow will be really big in determining the final landfall. It's certainly within the margin of track error at 60-72 hrs to shift back to the east again closer to MIA. Last few Euro runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The westward shift on 0z Euro keeps the core of eastern eyewall just west of the big SE FL population centers. New run old run Thanks for posting. Is that the closest pass to Miami? Seperately, the exact track of the eye will never be resolved, and errors inside 48 hrs, can easily be 50 miles or more as a result of nuanced wobbles and mesoscale effects. That said, I think the important take away here is the graze track has lost considerable weight and if the east coast takes a direct hit it will most likely be in the strongest quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 If it does take a Euro track, the final effects in Ft Myers/Naples will be a lot worse than I-95. Still hurricane force winds there and disruption, but nothing catastrophic. The GFS is a much different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Thanks for posting. Is that the closest pass to Miami? Seperately, the exact track of the eye will never be resolved, and errors inside 48 hrs, can easily be 50 miles or more as a result of nuanced wobbles and mesoscale effects. That said, I think the important take away here is the graze track has lost considerable weight and if the east coast takes a direct hit it will most likely be in the strongest quadrant. See my reply above to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Mountains of Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee look to take a pounding on 00z Euro. Possibly lots of power outages in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This may have been posted but, here is a link to Cuban radar. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, NavarreDon said: This may have been posted but, here is a link to Cuban radar. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif You can see the storm growing in that shot quite beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Treat these models as polls people.. MOE is ~50m just like the MOE on polls are 3-5% good idea where its going, but it'll never be exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Surface and Gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 At first glance this morning Irma looking healthier on radar imagery. When she hits the Fla straits bathtub I can't see how re- intensification doesn't ramp up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I'll be interested to see how the fluctuations in intensity influence the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The dual wind max seems to be gone on that last recon track into her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, HO1088 said: If the ECMWF continues a west trend the area from MIA-FLL-PBI won't see too much damage. Big if. Even if the current ECMWF were to verify the surge comes up into MIA. Also...if you have a 40 mile wide eye it still puts those areas in the eye wall. Sure it could go west...and then again...it could go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Would any of the meteorologists here care to share their best guesses about the overall model track shifts? We've seen an east trend, west trend, east a little bit and now west shift overnight so that Florida landfall may be just on the left side of Key Largo. LF closer to Homestead? Next collective model shift and why, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Looking at radar loop this looks to at least get part of the eye onto Cuba. Should help disrupt it a bit although it sucks for that island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Frictional effects with Cuba could be quite important as the steering flow from the WAR becomes more nuanced. It may be a good idea to hedge against the guidance which has Irma's center partly traversing Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I'll be interested to see how the fluctuations in intensity influence the track. It mostly just the strength of the ridge to the north and the timing of the turn as to whether Irma tracks closer to Cape Sable or Miami. We still need another 24-36 hrs of runs to know if this is a SW FL or SE FL landfall. The margin of track error keeps both areas in the cone of uncertainty. So anyone in those areas needs to prepare like the worst part of the hurricane will impact their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Latest IR from GOES 16 definitely shows the breakdown commencing of the once IEW....New, bigger eye, feature on IR will been seen over the next few hours.... ....fascinating storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Mountains of Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee look to take a pounding on 00z Euro. Possibly lots of power outages in these areas. I live in Greenville. Yikes. There would be a lot of toppled trees from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Latest IR from GOES 16 definitely shows the breakdown commencing of the once IEW....New, bigger eye, feature on IR will been seen over the next few hours.... ....fascinating storm!! Can you explain radial outflow dynamics a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.