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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

It's very difficult to get a storm back up to Cat 5 after it has been there and then weakened some.  Andrew did it, but that was reclassified after the fact.  I think David actually got to Cat 5 three times, but that's an extreme rarity.

Anyway Irma has set some amazing records, it peaked at 185 mph and stayed there for 36 hours, which is twice as long as any other hurricane in Atlantic basin recorded history (David did it for 18 hours.)  You don't expect a storm to stay at Cat 5 all the way to the coast anyway, especially when it becomes a Cat 5 so far away from the mainland.  It'll still have Cat 5 surge damage though, regardless of wind speeds.

 

Yes.

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1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Differences between 150 and 170 is splitting hairs but you are right about 170 vs 120.  Even if this is a Cat 3 the surge will be higher than what you typically see with a Cat 3 just because it's been a Cat 5 for so long.

It has perfect outflow and high surface temps. Today into tomorrow the hurricane will look its best. With minimal interaction with cuba this won't be a cat 3 long, and likely will rebuild its lost intensity. The only changes occur as it gets in closer to florida.

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7 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

If you're 30, 40 or 50 stories up in a major hurricane you've got a death wish...

Windfields on the north and east side of this storm are huge.  I'd be curious to see how it compares with the widest hurricanes in the basin.  I'm pleased to see winds come down over night because I believe there's a strong possibility of a strengthening storm at landfall.  High SSTs, high TCHP and perhaps some slightly increasing shear but some of those shear vectors as we near landfall may serve to enhance an outflow channel and aid in some reorganization.  Starting this process from a cat3 or cat4 storm will be much better than beginning intensification from 170mph.

Some people have the idea that they're going to escape the surge by going higher up- which is really bad for the reasons you stated.  I'm not sure this can get back to Cat 5 again but it's definitely better to have it weakening right now than start intensifying from 170 later on- I'm not sure where that'd lead and really not willing to find out (even from afar.)

 

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18 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said:

I thought the new Euro model has it more East now then even the NHC track? I am trying to figure out there track when 3/4 of the models have it well east of where they have it including the GFS and the ECMWF

The 0Z ECMWF Ensemble mean and the GFS 06Z Ensemble mean are slightly West, not East, of the NHC Track  - far more tracks over Tampa than Miami. 

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6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

and don't forget the surge, anywhere east of the eye will experience that.

With the storm coming from the south, the reef will mitigate some of the surge. There will still be a complete over wash of the keys from Islamorada east, flooding in much of the middle/lower keys. I worry about the critters at Theater of the Sea (and the two legged critters who don't get out).

The further west it tracks, the "easier" it will be for Miami, but still expect extensive flooding, possibly with over wash of Miami Beach. 

As I mentioned before (and others have mentioned too), this is forecast to go west of Lake Okeechobee, and this will push much of the shallow lake to the northern end (flooding at the north). It will eventually have to slosh back south. 

Water, water, everywhere.

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I do think that some reintensification is possible...HOWEVER, some of the inflow will be disrupted by Cuba and other landmasses.  That may counteract any possible strengthening. Just because the eye is over water doesn't mean strengthening is guaranteed.  If any part of the inflow is being disrupted by terrain and a dryer airmass, that can help disrupt things.

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I do think that some reintensification is possible...HOWEVER, some of the inflow will be disrupted by Cuba and other landmasses.  That may counteract any possible strengthening. Just because the eye is over water doesn't mean strengthening is guaranteed.  If any part of the inflow is being disrupted by terrain and a dryer airmass, that can help disrupt things.

The models have the pressure dropping over the straights, which is indicative of a strengthening system. Charley did it.

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I do think that some reintensification is possible...HOWEVER, some of the inflow will be disrupted by Cuba and other landmasses.  That may counteract any possible strengthening. Just because the eye is over water doesn't mean strengthening is guaranteed.  If any part of the inflow is being disrupted by terrain and a dryer airmass, that can help disrupt things.

It has nearly perfect outflow, it won't be near the higher elevations of Cuba, and the water its going into is not only hot, but deep. The size of the storm will mitigate dry air, and the shear environment is almost non existent until it gets to the keys.

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Just now, Crazy4Wx said:

The models have the pressure dropping over the straights, which is indicative of a strengthening system. Charley did it.

If the size of the storm is increasing that may put a cap on how much it can strengthen.  Charley (as well as Andrew) were both pretty small systems.

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Just now, Paragon said:

If the size of the storm is increasing that may put a cap on how much it can strengthen.  Charley (as well as Andrew) were both pretty small systems.

Sure...I do not think it will get back up to 185mph before Landfall...but you never want a deepening system at Landfall and that is what the models are projecting.

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1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Sure...I do not think it will get back up to 185mph before Landfall...but you never want a deepening system at Landfall and that is what the models are projecting.

Also that area is really marshy so it won't weaken as quickly when it hits land.  

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Henry Margusity not buying Euro at all and makes a good point why.  This thing will likely try to avoid hitting Cuba by doing the usual tip toeing around land.  That may be enough of a jog occurring when it does that for it to verify closer to the hurricane models or GFS 

Even the 06Z GEFS has limited  members over Miami - Ensemble Mean is over Ft. Myers. 

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Does the NHC update the cones at the 8AM and 2PM advisories?  I thought the track was only adjusted at the 11 and 5 ones?  Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

I believe you are correct, I'm a bit fearful that the new cone at 11 AM will be more shifted to the left, I'm getting more and more worried that here just outside of Tampa we will be getting closer to the Eye wall. I also really hope people don't get a false sense of security if the max winds continue to decrease a little bit or don't bump back up because I think the worst part of this storm is going to be the length of time that many places will be under Hurricane and TS force winds. Many places will be dealing with these winds for 8+ hours, when adding in the rain this will lead to many trees being uprooted/torn apart with debris flying around and can cause severe damage with broken windows or worse.

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3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Henry Margusity not buying Euro at all and makes a good point why.  This thing will likely try to avoid hitting Cuba by doing the usual tip toeing around land.  That may be enough of a jog occurring when it does that for it to verify closer to the hurricane models or GFS 

I agree. Also the 0z Euro has a west track that should begin right around now and last for a good part of the day. If that doesn't happen, or is shorter in duration than advertised, the LF near the SW coast is far less likely. Either way, we should find out over the next  6-12 hrs if this south/west trend is real. 

 

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13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Irma took a good hit last night with the ERC. Curious if it will recover. Looks like it could be mighty close to Cuba

 

Yeah.  The inner eyewall is persistent and not giving away easily.  And it might make impacts in Cuba less severe.  But this thing still likely has 3 days over mostly juicy conditions.  I'm afraid that's plenty of time for this outer eyewall to take over and contract.

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1 minute ago, Roy said:

Some people wondered if the west trend would continue, and it keeps happening. People in Miami may never listen to evacuation orders again....

They'll still get insanely bad wind damage regardless.  Likely worse than Wilma where they were gusting 90-100 and the damage was pretty severe.  If they get 110-120 mph gust even with the center 60 miles west of them it's a bad event 

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