btownheel Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 24 minutes ago, downeastnc said: With a 1020 high over NE and a more realistic 930-940 cane land falling over ILM everyone NE of the center is gonna get effed up. We saw the same thing here in Fran where PGV had one of the highest gust in the storm ( away from the coast). Still this is far out and this will move again though that track is classic and I get nervous whenever the models go back to it. Yup. Geography makes Frying Pan/the mouth of the Cape Fear a cane magnet. Anyone in NC has seen this track a bunch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 18 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Now this is quality posting folks....that make a lot of sense and explains why the Euro is in Cuba since its 40-50mb off with initialization... Thanks, just an observation. Will be interesting to see the trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: I'm saying the same thing. Drove home today and took time and looked at everything, and realized it's so beautiful here! Cary would never be the same if the 18z is right I'm a lot more worried about my family at the coast, but yeah I guess it would be pretty bad here. Crabtree Creek would probably rise above the top of the Holiday Inn at the mall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Meteo France Radar.... click the Guadeloupe link. http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-marine-antilles-guyane/cotes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Recon --- 917mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Not surprising, but 18Z GEFS definitely west of the OP. *edit: The Mean, that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Thanks, just an observation. Will be interesting to see the trends tonight. Its pretty damn valid though and explains A LOT.....the OP Euro makes no sense compared to the ensemble spread, but the OP was 962mb at initialization so 40 mb to high this totally fits and I bet you will be proven correct if they can get the pressure to initialize correctly at 00Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Its pretty damn valid though and explains A LOT.....the OP Euro makes no sense compared to the ensemble spread, but the OP was 962mb at initialization so 40 mb to high this totally fits and I bet you will be proven correct if they can get the pressure to initialize correctly at 00Z... How hard is it to get the in initilization scheme correct? Or at least within 40 mb. That seems like an absurd margin for error...especially for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How hard is it to get the in initilization scheme correct? Or at least within 40 mb. That seems like an absurd margin for error...especially for the Euro. I was shocked when I saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Yeah one would think the Euro would be closer than that, and then it keeps it 950-970mb the entire run, its just wrong, this doesnt mean it goes to NC with a landfall if its got the right pressure but there is a reason the higher pressures ensembles are all east of Florida on most of the models. We still got days to watch this and it will move again probably but in the end I think this is trending to something like a Hugo or Fran track somewhere between Charleston and Lookout.....wish I was wrong but escaping east seems very unlikely and the trend is going to be a back and forth in SC/NC from here on out I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I'm seeing people on social media like Facebook have completely written off a Carolinas hit because they 1. Don't know how to read and understand the NHC cone and 2. Are totally unaware of the numberous models. They think there's one track and one track only. Some lady just argued with me that I don't know what I'm talking about. NC isnt possible and demanded I tell her where I am getting this crazy info. She lives in Wilmington now. I'd hate to be her and misinformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I vote for the hard right option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 36 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: I'm saying the same thing. Drove home today and took time and looked at everything, and realized it's so beautiful here! Cary would never be the same if the 18z is right We've done it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Regan said: I'm seeing people on social media like Facebook have completely written off a Carolinas hit because they 1. Don't know how to read and understand the NHC cone and 2. Are totally unaware of the numberous models. They think there's one track and one track only. Some lady just argued with me that I don't know what I'm talking about. NC isnt possible and demanded I tell her where I am getting this crazy info. She lives in Wilmington now. I'd hate to be her and misinformed. I truly hope she gets wild guess lucky right here and rubs it in your face. Bald Head Island is my favorite place on this planet, and that GFS run would do to it what Hazel did to Wrightsville Beach Alas, I've learned to pay attention when Hky speaks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: I vote for the hard right option. I'm on that same train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Come on y'all, Lithia says we ain't got anything to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 So the ensembles tell operational GFS it's on dope. Not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 17.2°N 60.5°W Moving: W at 15 mphMin pressure: 916 mb Max sustained: 185 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Solak said: 8:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 17.2°N 60.5°W Moving: W at 15 mphMin pressure: 916 mb Max sustained: 185 mph Feels like one of those storms that you keep saying next reacon it'll weaken, next run it'll turn just enough but that next one never seems to come. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: I vote for the hard right option. Sucks for Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Solak said: 8:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 17.2°N 60.5°W Moving: W at 15 mphMin pressure: 916 mb Max sustained: 185 mph ANd its gonna hit several of the NE islands head on.. http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 so far the GFS is the only global to be in the ballpark with respects to pressure (insert token blind squirrel/broken clock joke here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Come on y'all, Lithia says we ain't got anything to worry about. The other day, I made a joke about being in the bullseye 10 days out (meaning, I was ultimately gonna be in the clear) and was basically scolded that hurricane tracks are much more stable than winter storms. Anywho, my suspicion is that Irma is going to interact with land enough (either directly or ingesting dry air or whatever) which will weaken her to a Cat 3 or below when she finally makes landfall in the US. This isn't set in stone, but it's what I would guess at this point. If she avoids land and then hits FL, then she'll probably be a Cat 4/5 at impact. If she slides up the east coast of FL, I bet she will weaken before hitting SC/NC. Essentially, I don't favor SC/NC getting hit by a Cat 4/5 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 54 minutes ago, JacobNC said: Wilmington would handle Cat 4-5 better than OBX/Hampton Roads, which would pretty much be wiped off the map due to storm surge. ILM is at least at 30-40 ft above sea level. But it would not be pretty. Exactly. Half of my area is <10ft above sea level. plus we're surrounded by bodies of water. Cat 4 would wipe off most of Va Beach and Norfolk off the map. But then again, cat 4 up here is borderline impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Can someone explain why Wilmington NWS just mentions Irma in two sentences saying the forecast depends on track? Where GSP basically dedicates the entire long term discussion, as they have for multiple days, to the subject. Yet, we are 100+ miles inland and in much less danger than places like Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Seems like a gross misjustice to the residents who live in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, GunBlade said: Can someone explain why Wilmington NWS just mentions Irma in two sentences saying the forecast depends on track? Where GSP basically dedicates the entire long term discussion, as they have for multiple days, to the subject. Yet, we are 100+ miles inland and in much less danger than places like Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Seems like a gross misjustice to the residents who live in the area. What is there really to say that wasnt covered there....most folks down here are pretty hurricane savvy I promise you Irma isnt gonna sneak up on anyone in eastern NC.....and this was written before the 18Z GFS came back to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Can someone explain why Wilmington NWS just mentions Irma in two sentences saying the forecast depends on track? Where GSP basically dedicates the entire long term discussion, as they have for multiple days, to the subject. Yet, we are 100+ miles inland and in much less danger than places like Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Seems like a gross misjustice to the residents who live in the area. The just say only what they actually know. No speculation. Despite 1000 posts, what is in those two sentences is all we know as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'd wager there are few NWS offices that have tracked more tropical systems than ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OpAck Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Well, my flood insurance (and wind/hail) is all paid up...but I still much rather not have a cat 3/4 hurricane strike ILM (and I'm closer to Carolina Beach). Then again, I've got family all over Florida, so it's a case of pick your poison. Definitely hoping for Cuba to shred it down and hit Florida as a much weakened storm. Wherever it goes though, gotta be on guard and be ready to get the heck out of the way, if necessary. Just amazing how powerful this storm is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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