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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc
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Figure there is enough action that we can split this out into its own thread...up to 70% chance for becoming Irma and the NHC is talking issuing TS watches for parts of the SC/NC coast as this will be a short fuze event. Probably not going to be much more than a middle of the road TS, and probably only affect the immediate coastal areas of the SE but it could landfall in the Carolinas...again though not looking at much more than a heavy rain threat with some minor wind issues on the OBX as it stands now.

Vis loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-vis-long.html

Charleston LR radar loop

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Can't wait to see their first advisory and track. 

lol NAM and HRRR take it inland over north Florida...but that might be a cast off LLC I would think a new one would form further east under the better storms, its such a large circulation its gonna be fun to watch how it plays out...buoys off Fl and SC both gusting well into the 30's so there is a large broad wind field. NAM was a pretty big rain event for the SE especially NC.

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This brings it ashore around SC/NC border and then up and over eastern NC and the OBX and then offshore again just east of Nags Head...albeit as a extremely weak TS....they have issued a TS watch accordingly.

 

although the potential impacts are within 36 hours, given the
uncertainty in whether tropical storm force winds will occur on land
in northeastern South Caroilna and southeastern North Carolina,
south, a tropical storm watch has been issued for these areas.
Note that north of Duck, North Carolina, hazards from this system
will be handled with non-tropical products issued by local National
Weather Service offices.

 

INIT  27/2100Z 31.2N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  28/0600Z 31.6N  80.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  28/1800Z 32.4N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 34.1N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/1800Z 36.6N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/1800Z 40.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1800Z 43.0N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1800Z 47.0N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Decent flare up, just imagine what this thing would be doing if there was no shear......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-ft-long.html

circulation still broad at the surface but still looks to be trying to organize in spite of the shear...

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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Shear is still kicking this storms ass, though the circulation looks better on radar than the sat presentation suggest it should. It doesnt sound like the NHC thinks the shear is going to let up very much so this means what you see is probably what you get. Maybe 2-4" of rain along the coast minimal wind with less than TS gust except right along the beaches...

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5 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Shear is still kicking this storms ass, though the circulation looks better on radar than the sat presentation suggest it should. It doesnt sound like the NHC thinks the shear is going to let up very much so this means what you see is probably what you get. Maybe 2-4" of rain along the coast minimal wind with less than TS gust except right along the beaches...

I was looking around to see if the shear may relax a bit today or tonight so thanks for the update on that.

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One thing to remember is the high off the NE coast is fairly strong for this time of year and as the "storm" moves up from the south the gradient will get tighter.....already we are 12-15 mph gusting to low 20's so a lot of eastern NC might see winds sustain in the low 20's gusting 35-45. Not horrible but with 2-4" of rain thrown in it might almost feel like a tropical storm.

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Models continue to spread heavier rain totals west, Solid 2-4" east of I95 and now the CMC even pushing the 2" totals close to the Triangle. That said  PTC 10 still looks like a hot mess with the shear blasting it, according to the NHC the shear turns more out of the SW today and the storm will start moving NNE this will lessen the overall effect of the shear some....then there will be a short 12-18 hr window for this thing to get to legit TS status before the westerlies crush it again.

 

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3 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Models continue to spread heavier rain totals west, Solid 2-4" east of I95 and now the CMC even pushing the 2" totals close to the Triangle. That said  PTC 10 still looks like a hot mess with the shear blasting it, according to the NHC the shear turns more out of the SW today and the storm will start moving NNE this will lessen the overall effect of the shear some....then there will be a short 12-18 hr window for this thing to get to legit TS status before the westerlies crush it again.

 

How much for my back yard? :)

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28 minutes ago, Solak said:

Recon is out there looking for something in that sloppy mess.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Pressures still around 1006mb so that's not terrible but there is no LLC and its tough to see how this thing gets a chance to organize given the environment....its persistent with firing storms but they are blown away as soon as they form....its to close to land and doesn't have much time left I doubt this ever gets the name Irma and if they do name it it will be a pity naming...this pretty much says it all

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has been flying through the
disturbance and so far the aircraft data depicts a sharp
trough with a few spots of tropical-storm-force winds east of the
trough axis. The overall cloud pattern has not become any better
organized, and most of the weather is located in bands well to the
northeast and southeast of the trough. With the shear increasing,
the chances for the system to become a tropical storm are
diminishing, but if it does occur it should happen within the next
24 hours or so while the system moves near the Outer Banks of
North Carolina. Regardless of whether tropical cyclone formation
occurs, tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warning
area in North Carolina. Beyond 24 hours, the system should acquire
extratropical characteristics. However, the exact timing of the
transition is uncertain since the cyclone will still be moving over
warm waters.

In reality, we can not track a center of circulation that does not
exist and NHC is following an area of minimum pressure. This makes
the initial motion highly uncertain and the best estimate is toward
the northeast or 040 degrees at 10 kt. The system is already
embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a
trough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the
northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed.

 

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25 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Sandwiched in between the two storms it was a coolish summer day with clouds in Atlanta.  Beautiful for August. 

Yeah its 72 here with drizzle/mist on a 14 mph NE wind gusting into the low 20's......long range doesn't have any 90's in it for most of the SE, though 90s as late as early Oct are fairly common.

 

RDU AFD

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

As of 232 PM Monday... ...A flash flood watch and wind advisory remain in effect south and east of the Triangle from 8 pm this evening through 8 pm Tuesday... 12Z model guidance suggests that potential tropical cyclone 10 will track just inland of the NC coast late tonight and Tuesday. With an upper level trough approaching from the west, expect the heaviest precipitation (2-5" or 3-6") to fall left-of-track along/west of Hwy 17 between midnight tonight and ~noon on Tuesday, with a tight gradient in precipitation amounts on the NW periphery of the cyclone (invof the Hwy 1 corridor). If PTC10 tracks further west than currently anticipated, significant rainfall (and flash flooding) would be possible invof the Triangle. With ~1020 mb high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, the MSLP gradient will be tightest on the W/NW periphery of PTC10, and a period of strong northerly winds/ gusts will be possible in concert with heavy rain and rapid pressure falls south/east of the Triangle tonight/early Tue, and perhaps again Tue afternoon as winds back to the NNW/NW in response to pressure rises in the wake of PTC10. Ultimately, precipitation amounts and winds in central NC will highly depend on the precise timing/track/intensity of PTC10, and adjustments to the flash flood watch and wind advisory area may be required later this aft/eve into tonight. Expect below normal highs ranging from near 70F in the N/NW Piedmont to the mid 70s in the far SE Coastal Plain. -Vincent

-- End Changed Discussion --


 

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Glad they didn't waste a name on this dud! Not a ton of precip either. Models over did it a bit

Just a tad....though the Nam did start backing off last night...this is my point forecast at the moment.....so maybe we still see some wind on the gradient but rainfall is going to be meh....which is fine by most here in eastern NC I am sure, we dont really need it. 

"Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with a northeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming southeast 21 to 31 mph. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible."

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