ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 South of 18Z at hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looks to be about 50-60 miles south at hour 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Still South at 132 and moving what looks to be moving more WNW as opposed to more like the NW the 18Z was showing. Still going to pass North of the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 At 168 it looks a good 100 miles or so South of where it was at 18Z still moving more WNW then NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Slams into the NC-VA border at 234 moving NNW showing a pressure of 928 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I guess folks are following this on the tropics board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Yeah I have the other board open while I go about my normal workday just to follow the discussion. Irma is something that I'm aware of at this point but it's just too far out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 The big take away from last nights run was the Euro going with a probable OTS run versus south and into the GOM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 11 AM NHC update below. Max forecasted winds now at 125 MPH at days 4-5 The general synoptic situation remains well established due to a building mid-level high, which should cause the hurricane to turn westward later today and then move west-southwestward through the weekend. An upper-level low will be dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning westward and west-northwestward early next week. There is a noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 39 minutes ago, griteater said: 11 AM NHC update below. Max forecasted winds now at 125 MPH at days 4-5 The general synoptic situation remains well established due to a building mid-level high, which should cause the hurricane to turn westward later today and then move west-southwestward through the weekend. An upper-level low will be dropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a key feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning westward and west-northwestward early next week. There is a noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster mentioned above. Hmmmm this is pretty telling they favor a more southern track thus more westward in the long run.....this is were actual forecasting and experience come in versus just hugging models...this will be the crucial interaction that sets the stage for the end game....more north is a miss, further south and a SE landfall is on the table. If this thing goes south of the 20N 60W benchmark the chances of a US landfall go up significantly IMO. Most guidance is over it or north of that in the last runs...the official NHC track looks to keep Irma south of it at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 GFS is a little south on the track thru 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS is a little south on the track thru 114 If neat to watch the ULL on the 500mb vort maps it totally steers the storm the 12Z yesterday had the ULL dive SW over the Haiti and Irma gets kicked north, this run the ULL is more westward moving and over the Bahamas which will pull Irma more west for sure....how much more though is tough to tell but the trough is already bottoming out at 150 and if Irma is moving more WNW than NNW she might miss it this run or at least get left behind and stall a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Trough misses her this run she is almost running WNW again by hr 186 this one is gonna be close to showing a landfall again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Thanks for pbp. keep us updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 LOL GFS has a 910 MB at 198 headed for Carolinas.....with nothing really to turn her upstream. Anyone wanna guess how this plays out with the high location over NE.....gonna be very close to running right up the east coast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 21 hours ago, packbacker said: I forget how much fun day 8+ op Euro runs can be. lol, now when I start an 8 day winter storm thread in a few months, nobody give me any grief about it! I think it's way too early to worry about this storm. In my opinion there's just as much chance of it turning out to sea than not. I'm not a big tropical fan as they so rarely affect CLT, but geez modeling these things long range is like herding cats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 And there she goes. There she goes again: Never underestimate a good trough/ULL in September. Nice 970 into Rhode Island, though. Canadian is in the process of recurving at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Really after hr 144 its all up in the air and while it would be awesome to have a better agreement in that range its not gonna happen...but we do now however have pretty damn good agreement at hr 144 for her to be at or below the 20N 60W benchmark which ups the chances this gets really close or landfalls.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Fairly good agreement at day 9-10 between GEFS/EPS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 GFS Ensemble increased its number of hits into Florida this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: If this thing goes south of the 20N 60W benchmark the chances of a US landfall go up significantly IMO. I've heard of that benchmark before, but there is plenty of historical precedent for recurves away from the CONUS south of that benchmark. I'm thinking in particular of Luis and Marilyn from 1995, which before '04-05 was the most hyperactive Atlantic season in recent memory. They both battered the Lesser Antilles as majors but turned out fish as far as the U.S. is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: I've heard of that benchmark before, but there is plenty of historical precedent for recurves away from the CONUS south of that benchmark. I'm thinking in particular of Luis and Marilyn from 1995, which before '04-05 was the most hyperactive Atlantic season in recent memory. They both battered the Lesser Antilles as majors but turned out fish as far as the U.S. is concerned. Its not so much that storms south of that benchmark cant/dont curve out its that almost all storms that pass NORTH of that benchmark recurve, there are some exceptions but I bet 95+% of storms that went on to hit the US went below 20/60. There are notable exceptions like Fran and Isabel that went above that benchmark and went on to hit the US.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 CMC if it ran 3-4 more panels was probably a NC landfall over the sounds/IBX or very near miss for the OBX...Euro so far through 120 is pretty much balls on the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, downeastnc said: CMC if it ran 3-4 more panels was probably a NC landfall over the sounds/IBX or very near miss for the OBX...Euro so far through 120 is pretty much balls on the previous run. CMC out to 240 on meteocentre....it gets close to FL, then it turns NNE and looks like it would be off the OBX...maybe skirt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro is a little more west this run. Less east coast trough influence / more west Atlantic ridge nosing in. Just east of Bahamas at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Ouch, this looks like a memorable 9/11 for a very different reason. Historically speaking mother nature has a difficult time trying to drive hurricanes into the SC/GA coast but the strength of the building ridge to the north just might do the trick this time. This run aint pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, griteater said: Euro is a little more west this run. Less east coast trough influence / more west Atlantic ridge nosing in. Just east of Bahamas at 192 At 240 extrapolating looks like a carolina's hit to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 This Euro run is probably worst case for SC/NC just bad bad bad....strong Cat 4 almost right on the climo track for a SC/NC border landfall traveling NNW or N would put all of NC east of CLT in play and flat out crush NE SC and NC from RDU to the coast. That thing probably has a 300 mile wide hurricane force wind field at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 920mb due south of Wilmington and east of Daytona Beach at day 10 on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Live look at latest satellite imagery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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