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Hurricane Irma

downeastnc

By downeastnc,
in Southeastern States

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senc30

senc30

Posted
Posted

So I'm catching up from over night. I see the east shift has continued. One thing I will say is that I believe the OTS option is still on the table. The slower this storms moves forward, the better chance it has of something picking it up or nudging it enough to keep it out to sea. May be wishful thinking but I do believe the chance is still there, even of it's a small chance. 

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HKY_WX

HKY_WX

Posted
Posted

EURO trended towards my ideas last night w/ regard to the upper low. You could see this coming once the models started trending towards that cutoff over new england. It favors a stronger Upper Low over the southeast, the same way it does in the winter time. This is the same concept as during a January SECS. Our main hope is this hits florida first and weakens prior to curving North. Scary times for this crew if the gfs/euro is right. I would start prepping early if 12z suite starts to line up on the carolinas.

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Regan

Regan

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

https://twitter.com/NWS/status/905392622608556032

NHC is really slow to consider new models and rightfully so. They are cautious. They just this morning updated for the changes and drew a new cone emphasizing east shifting. Still a huge field on the cone for error of course, but that's how they do it.  If more models keep coming in offshore, I'm sure they will adjust. Clearly, the whole east coast needs to be prepared and it shows. 

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Thor

Thor

Posted
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14 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

EURO trended towards my ideas last night w/ regard to the upper low. You could see this coming once the models started trending towards that cutoff over new england. It favors a stronger Upper Low over the southeast, the same way it does in the winter time. This is the same concept as during a January SECS. Our main hope is this hits florida first and weakens prior to curving North. Scary times for this crew if the gfs/euro is right. I would start prepping early if 12z suite starts to line up on the carolinas.

Been seeing the same items you have and appreciated your posts. Seems like the NAM saw the north trend first. It will be key to see how the models evolve tbrough the bahamas today for us. The ridge that ultimately pushes the storm into land is critical as well. Hopefully an OTS solution becomes a reality. People on this board are informed, no harm in telling your friends, coworkers and neighbors what we see. At this point the area is not prepared, but there is certainly time. 

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StormyClearweather

StormyClearweather

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, senc30 said:

So I'm catching up from over night. I see the east shift has continued. One thing I will say is that I believe the OTS option is still on the table. The slower this storms moves forward, the better chance it has of something picking it up or nudging it enough to keep it out to sea. May be wishful thinking but I do believe the chance is still there, even of it's a small chance. 

I think if you look at what the ensembles are doing, you'll see it's not necessarily a small chance. If nothing else, the chance of it floating out to sea has definitely gone up since yesterday. As someone mentioned above, everything keeps shifting a little east with each run (the 6Z made a minor westward shift, but that's likely just noise). Having said that, we're not going to know for sure for several more days.

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senc30

senc30

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I think if you look at what the ensembles are doing, you'll see it's not necessarily a small chance. If nothing else, the chance of it floating out to sea has definitely gone up since yesterday. As someone mentioned above, everything keeps shifting a little east with each run (the 6Z made a minor westward shift, but that's likely just noise). Having said that, we're not going to know for sure for several more days.

I always go with a small chance so I don't get my hopes up that it goes out to see and it doesn't. I've seen this dog and pony how before with models. Usually a store makes landfall further north, in this case, I'm thinking SC/NC line, but if it keeps trending, I'm hoping for that OTS track. 

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

I think it's pretty clear by now, that after about a 24 hour time frame, we have no idea where this thing is going.  I think models will correct and correct (or incorrect) each day on a different solution

And I have a hard time buying the due north path as I think we rarely see it.  If I were a betting man I'd say this thing's going to hit the curve and curve on out to sea once it starts.  

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StormyClearweather

StormyClearweather

Posted
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5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I think it's pretty clear by now, that after about a 24 hour time frame, we have no idea where this thing is going.  I think models will correct and correct (or incorrect) each day on a different solution

And I have a hard time buying the due north path as I think we rarely see it.  If I were a betting man I'd say this thing's going to hit the curve and curve on out to sea once it starts.  

GSP mentioned the other day how the track the models have been showing is very rare climatologically speaking. Having said that, if the New England high builds in, that would seem likely to force her more NNW. But who knows at this point. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Solak said:

Found this rather interesting from RAH this morning:

  


Ensembles and the operational models continue to suggest that
central NC will escape totally unscathed, however, and so am not
inclined to make significant changes to our ongoing forecast at this
time.

Are they talking about the Canadian models?

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ragtop50

ragtop50

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Solak said:

Found this rather interesting from RAH this morning:

  


Ensembles and the operational models continue to suggest that
central NC will escape totally unscathed, however, and so am not
inclined to make significant changes to our ongoing forecast at this
time.

I just read that as well and found the statement odd, especially given the latest model trends.

But if you read the rest of the discussion it starts explaining the impacts that in reality we could expect.

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StormyClearweather

StormyClearweather

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Solak said:

Found this rather interesting from RAH this morning:

  


Ensembles and the operational models continue to suggest that
central NC will escape totally unscathed, however, and so am not
inclined to make significant changes to our ongoing forecast at this
time.

Based on the sentence before it, I think it's just a typo and should read, "will not escape totally unscathed."

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Regan

Regan

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

How about that CMC?

pBhYCE3.png&key=dc65740bd426d3209451b1c8

Why now after trying to call the gfs an outlier yesterday, be making strong statements today about a lone cmc run/ cmc in general when they weren't heavily caring before?  You know?  Gotta be a typo like others have said. Idk 

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Pocosin

Pocosin

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Solak said:

Found this rather interesting from RAH this morning:

  


Ensembles and the operational models continue to suggest that
central NC will escape totally unscathed, however, and so am not
inclined to make significant changes to our ongoing forecast at this
time.

What is RAH? I am in Central NC and want as much info I can get, although I have to agree I think this particular one is a mistake. I have a feeling we may have a bulls-eye on us at least for a while.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted
Just now, Pocosin said:

What is RAH? I am in Central NC and want as much info I can get, although I have to agree I think this particular one is a mistake. I have a feeling we may have a bulls-eye on us at least for a while.

RAH is the NWS office in Raleigh, NC

 

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WXinCanton

WXinCanton

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Regan said:

Why now after trying to call the gfs an outlier yesterday, be making strong statements today about a lone cmc run/ cmc in general when they weren't heavily caring before?  You know?  Gotta be a typo like others have said. Idk 

Most Guidance has come east, OTS is looking very possible vs this time yesterday.

Edit:

My bad you were referring to the AFD, not the post of the model.  Sorry about that 

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