USCG RS Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 What do you know that we don't know that she is even going to get close to have any effects at all.. Most models show Cuba having really no effect at all.. Your making it sound like the Strom is just gonna die and fizzle out.. no need to down play and possible dangerous situation for some folks in the u.sSent from my SM-G900R4 using TapatalkHe's not. A direct hit on the southern part of Cuba, at a slow speed, will significantly mitigate the strength of Irma. The mountains will disrupt the circulation and, given enough time, will significantly weaken the storm. Doesn't mean it cannot re strengthen with those ultra hot sst s, however, the models showing no effect on a direct hit to Cuba are flat out wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 UK ensembles updated...still over Cuba but tracks bulk of members off eastern side of FL. Previous runs had them over Hisp and south of Cuba, now north of Hisp and over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I really think some guys "think" they want a Cat5 to head their way, until a CAT5 heads their way. You must not like Chinquapin, NC., if you want this in your backyard. Where I would love to chase a Cat 1 or Cat 2, no way would I want this monster heading my way intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, packbacker said: UK ensembles updated...still over Cuba but tracks bulk of members off eastern side of FL. Previous runs had them over Hisp and south of Cuba, now north of Hisp and over Cuba. Yeah I wonder what it is making the OP run so far west, if you looked at the Euro ens without the mean or OP track overlaid and were asked to draw where you thought the OP run would be, would you really draw the OP run the 12Z had lol....I wouldnt. I would have gone with something very similar to the GFS run but more towards Charleston/Myrtle Beach. I have to believe if Irma runs on or north of track the next 24-36 hrs we see them correct back NE quite a bit as the southern ens runs dont pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 17.1°N 59.8°W Moving: W at 15 mph Min pressure: 926 mb Max sustained: 185 mph The eye of Irma is within range of the Meteo France radar in the northeastern Caribbean, and recent images show the development of an outer eyewall, likely the beginning stages of an eyewall replacement. These changes in inner-core structure will likely result in fluctuations in intensity during the next couple of days. Otherwise, increasing upper-ocean heat content and a very favorable upper-level pattern are expected to allow Irma to remain a category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next several days. Once again, the NHC forecast shows limited interaction of the hurricane with the islands of the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Cuba will shread up Irma if she passes too close. She looks to pass at least near Cuba which will likely weaken her even if she never makes LF there. High terrain will just wreck a tropical system for those that don't know. How disrupted did Irma get? How are the conditions for redevelopment in that part of the ocean? How much time does she spend near those mountains? Lots of questions still out there. But all of that added up tells me Irma will never be the same again after her approach to Cuba. Could she still go back cat3 or 4, sure but there are going to be things working against a monster cane after that dance with Cuba. JMO, I'm just a weather nerd keep in mind the central northern part of Cuba is flat. The mtns are on the book ends so to speak andI beleive its the eastern ones that are highest. that north shore in the center is like a coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, DixieBlizzard said: I really think some guys "think" they want a Cat5 to head their way, until a CAT5 heads their way. You must not like Chinquapin, NC., if you want this in your backyard. Where I would love to chase a Cat 1 or Cat 2, no way would I want this monster heading my way intact. Considering I live hear there and lived through Floyd, I agree. In no way do I want this thing coming up this way but at the same time, in no way am I going to discount it. Saw that done during Floyd and Matthew last year and it was a total cluster for the"experts". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, LithiaWx said: The NC centric comments would lead novice to think you guys were under the same threat as you were a couple of days ago where both globals were showing a storm around SAV - CHS. Dont confuse dininished threat with no threat, please. You refuse to grow up. First of all, take the banter over to the banter thread. Yes, whining about "NC centric posts" would qualify as banter. Personally, in this part of NC, I am concerned that many of the models, for days now, have shown a very dangerous scenario for my back yard and further south into SC. Do you know why I post about those locations? Because it's where I live. If you're feeling froggy and want a Georgia or Florida centric thread, then create such a thread. We we are not going down this same whiny road again this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: You refuse to grow up. First of all, take the banter over to the banter thread. Yes, whining about "NC centric posts" would qualify as banter. Personally, in this part of NC, I am concerned that many of the models, for days now, have shown a very dangerous scenario for my back yard and further south into SC. Do you know why I post about those locations? Because it's where I live. If you're feeling groggy and want a Georgia or Florida centric thread, then create such a thread. We we are not going down this same whiny road again this year. Yep, a lot of ENS still put this thing up the coast, and honestly the spread is frightening....heck I would almost feel better if SC/NC border was the current landfall spot being modeled as its still 5 days out and shifts are surely going to occur, looking at the ensembles makes me fear those shifts will be east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFS is running. Does she keep with her easterly movement so far today or does she go back west and follow the EURO? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFS wants to go NE this run north of the previous few runs at almost every plot but not too much maybe 50 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Out to 54 and the 18z GFS is noticably north of the 12Z. See where it turns and ends up at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Wow probably a good 100-125 miles north or 12Z at hr 66... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 At hr 66 a good bit north of 12zSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Out to 72 and staying on that more North track. Interested to see where this ends up at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Passing through the Central Bahamas at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This is looking bad for GA SC and up into WNC. Especially if Irma avoids land in the Cuba area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Still has that odd little west turn, if that doesnt happen she would stay in the central or even NE Bahamas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 If this NE trend translate into the turn this will be Charleston/central SC landfall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: You refuse to grow up. First of all, take the banter over to the banter thread. Yes, whining about "NC centric posts" would qualify as banter. Personally, in this part of NC, I am concerned that many of the models, for days now, have shown a very dangerous scenario for my back yard and further south into SC. Do you know why I post about those locations? Because it's where I live. If you're feeling froggy and want a Georgia or Florida centric thread, then create such a thread. We we are not going down this same whiny road again this year. And it's much less ominous than it was a couple of days ago for those locations. South Florida is under the biggest threat by far. Please reread the posts from me today in this thread. I've added some other content today that is more realavant to comment on imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 And there's the north turn at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 At hour 102 it doesn't even touch Florida making the hard turn northSent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks to be moving almost due NW at 102 just north of Andros Island in the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like it might just miss Florida with the core this time turning pretty good by 102....might keep the center 60-100 miles offshore this time hopefully....at 108 heading north I might have to sweat this run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 At 108 some interesting interaction with a shortwave diving SE through N. Miss and that elongated trough NE of Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 WOW almost straight North at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, lj0109 said: At 108 some interesting interaction with a shortwave diving SE through N. Miss and that elongated trough NE of Irma High over GL a tad further east as well if its moves much more east then she will go north further before being turned back NW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Not looking good for northern SC and southern NC. Due north right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Heck a little NE 120-126..I have seen this dog and pony show before....I am however wary of model runs with large changes in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Mayday! Mayday! GFS is east. Charleston crush job incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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