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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

6z GEFS looks to be roughly in the center of EPS cone...if you are in Florida not sure what you do.  

One thing about the EPS for the tracks east of FL.... tracks are either re-curving off coastal NC or they are hooking back in over GA/SC.  Still a miss wide right on the table.

 

That's yesterday's 6z.. it's moved east

PZSwKBe.png

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16 minutes ago, Wow said:

That's yesterday's 6z.. it's moved east

PZSwKBe.png

pretty telling how the 06z gfs and it's ensembles shifted east while the euro/eps shifted west/had a lot of members a lot more west.  The 06z gfs/ensemble shift was quite a bit in fact...Just goes to show you how much is still up in the air and why as others have pointed out, it's extremely foolish to write anywhere off right now. 

 

 

AL11_2017090500_ECENS_large.png?66967808

 

Yesterday's 12z

 

AL11_2017090412_ECENS_large.png?66967808

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Just now, Poimen said:

 12Z track guidance. 

11L_tracks_12z.png

Not surprising based on the shift of the 06z gfs. But some of those tracks really are scary...where it devastates southeast florida/large section of the east coast but there is so little land interaction there wouldn't be a lot of weakening and/or an ability to quickly restrengthened before the 2nd landfall in ga/sc. Some are close to worst case scenarios. 

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34 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

That will effectively relocate your house.....the crappiest part is there is ZERO chance the models will nail that turn this far out, hell we wont be sure exactly were until it actually turns....the turn just happens to be modeled to be in a area where 100 miles one way or the other has HUGE ramifications for literally millions of people. Best thing that happens now is the models have the ridging to strong and she never gets that far west and ends up east OTS otherwise someone is probably getting a Cat 5. Need this thing to start gaining some Lat fast otherwise the NE islands are toast. 

I know right?!   :lol:    I expected a shift to the east today but with all of the small changes past day 3 the difference of 50 miles is HUGE   :( 

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1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I know right?!   :lol:    I expected a shift to the east today but with all of the small changes past day 3 the difference of 50 miles is HUGE   :( 

It would be nice to be out of the woods, it going to be a long long long week....I am only 100 miles west of Hatteras so its gonna take several east jumps to put me back in the worst of it, however the last run before the models jumped to Florida was :yikes: for MBY.  Hoping it doesnt get back to something like that....if it does correct east it should start doing it in earnest soon I would hope by the time its approaching the Bahamas the 48 hr agreement would be tight enough we know who gets it ( or who gets it first ugh) but somehow I doubt Irma is gonna let us off that easy......not cool Irma. 

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42 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

12z runs are going to be big today in terms of: is there now a trend eastward (..after a day or so of westward trending).

   

All the 0z runs last night , had all the new data ingested, all the extra balloons over the Midwest to sample the trough upper air conditions, as well as recon flights. Doubt we see big shifts in models from here on out, IMO 

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All the 0z runs last night , had all the new data ingested, all the extra balloons over the Midwest to sample the trough upper air conditions, as well as recon flights. Doubt we see big shifts in models from here on out, IMO 

 

The thing is, it's not big shifts. A minor shift could still produce a very different scenario.

 

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13 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

All the 0z runs last night , had all the new data ingested, all the extra balloons over the Midwest to sample the trough upper air conditions, as well as recon flights. Doubt we see big shifts in models from here on out, IMO 

Hmmm how soon people forget....

 

8 am Sat forecasted track

AL142016_5W_041_A.GIF.158b95b2e383e54ca9879576777689ee.GIF

8 am Sunday exactly 24 hrs later

AL142016_5W_045_A.GIF.96564eb6eb48752571860735b059f543.GIF

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Just an on, she's getting a little raggedy looking atm, ERC? 

Also saw on TWC, over the Midwest and Ohio valley, they are releasing weather balloons every 6 hours to figure out this trough! Looked like about 20 -30 stations doing this. Regularly, it's every 12 I believe!?

Every 6 hours I believe is what they said.

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Recurving east coast hurricanes are always difficult to forecast for the same reasons: pinpointing the precise timing and location of a change in direction 4-5 days out is nearly impossible. Add to that the proximity of land, the contour of the east coast, and a category 5 hurricane, and you have an extremely difficult forecast. By and large the models do a great job of signaling the timing of the expected turn. But as others have pointed out--the slightest difference east or west has enormous impacts downstream.    

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

8:00 advisory=== CAT 5

7:45 AM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 16.7°N 57.7°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph
 

929 is extremely powerful. And if this eye stays over water, Oh My. Remember in the 60's, Hurricane Donna. Took a path similar to this projected path. He FL and still made it to the NC coast as a CAT 3. East Coast and Golf Coast, be prepared.

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Pretty incredible.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.
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19 minutes ago, WXinCanton said:

I'm so hoping for an OTS solution to verify.   Still think we a shot, however slight.   Sister lives in West Palm.  I want nothing to do with this thing.   I have always told her I would come down and chase, but not this one.   Forget that!

Family in N Palm, want them to leave!

 

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7 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Pretty incredible.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES

Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.

Pretty incredible to say the least...and there is a decent chance it could go higher over the next several days.  Hard to believe we are having two back to back record smashing and history making hurricanes. Like with harvey, it's hard not watch this constantly all day because i know i'm watching something special...albeit terrifying.

 

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