Ser Pounce Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Too much uncertainty past day 4/5 for anyone to feel like a threat is diminishing. A 50ish mile early turn towards the north could mean all the difference between a landfall in FL or a landfall in Wilmington. Irma will definitely be testing my patience this week Well put, it'll be like the days leading up to Matthew last year. I have a feeling that even after the turn happens everyone will be wondering about specifics right up until the very end because of the shape of the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Based on the way this is approaching the US, all it takes is a turn north just a little bit earlier than what the models are printing out now and it's SC/NC instead of FL. yeah, literally a 50 mile shift is all the difference. will be a nightmare evac wise similar to floyd if this is the same look we have late week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Based on the way this is approaching the US, all it takes is a turn north just a little bit earlier than what the models are printing out now and it's SC/NC instead of FL. I agree. But the projected track has also gotten closer to Cuba too. I'm not writing it off by any means. Just thinking the odds of a Cuba/Florida strike have risen, vs what we were seeing the other day. Likewise, the odds of an OTS solution have decreased. This is just based on recent trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I agree. But the projected track has also gotten closer to Cuba too. I'm not writing it off by any means. Just thinking the odds of a Cuba/Florida strike have risen, vs what we were seeing the other day. Likewise, the odds of an OTS solution have decreased. This is just based on recent trends. Seems less so Cuba compared to yesterday (there's been a small north trend with the models), but perhaps cutting north on the GOM side of FL are higher ranked options with todays models. But should the Atlantic ridge break down just a bit faster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I agree. But the projected track has also gotten closer to Cuba too. I'm not writing it off by any means. Just thinking the odds of a Cuba/Florida strike have risen, vs what we were seeing the other day. Likewise, the odds of an OTS solution have decreased. This is just based on recent trends. Latest model guidence I saw with the new data put in for the 18z runs showed more grouping together and a track further north from Cuba that it would have very little, if any, impact on the storm itself. Give it another 48 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Trend of the hurricane models for the day. More north, a bit more west once it cuts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 36 minutes ago, Wow said: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17244&y=7286&z=4&im=54&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wow said: Seems less so Cuba compared to yesterday (there's been a small north trend with the models), but perhaps cutting north on the GOM side of FL are higher ranked options with todays models. But should the Atlantic ridge break down just a bit faster... Ok, and your graphic shows what you're saying. I just remember the other day, there wasn't a lot of guidance taking it near Cuba or Florida to the degree that we've seen over the last 48hrs. I guess that's what I was saying. IIRC, we had more direct SE/mid-Atlantic/NE/OTS solutions a few days ago than the farther south/west tracks we're seeing now. That's just going from memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Ok, and your graphic shows what you're saying. I just remember the other day, there wasn't a lot of guidance taking it near Cuba or Florida to the degree that we've seen over the last 48hrs. I guess that's what I was saying. IIRC, we had more direct SE/mid-Atlantic/NE/OTS solutions a few days ago than the farther south/west tracks we're seeing now. That's just going from memory. Yes, before yesterdays big southern trend it was moving more NW through the Bahamas, then a question as to whether it was going to plow inland, head due north, or OTS. Now we seem to be getting good agreement of a more westerly movement before turning north, and a more abrupt turn at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wow said: Trend of the hurricane models for the day. More north, a bit more west once it cuts north. Has there been a hurricane that hit FL or GA and tracked up the Savannah River like some of these show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Dont see a Jose thread yet so I'll ask it here, what happens when a still tropical Jose slams into a decaying Irma as she runs up the coast? Does Irma push Jose down and into the GOM? Fujiwhara still in play? Or maybe they arent close enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I booked a hotel in Sanford earlier this evening as a hedge against the GEFS/ride up the west coast of FLA scenario, for Sat through Tues, assuming it may take most of the day on Sat to travel the distance from Tampa to Sanford. Very few rooms were left, so people waiting until mid week are going to be out of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 54 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I'm starting to feel like the threat for a direct hit to the Carolina coast as a major hurricane is diminishing. Of course, all possibilities are still on the table, but the odds of it interacting with Cuba or Florida are going up, which will obviously negatively impact the circulation. Yeah, if it tracks past 80W then I would think most likely we just have to worry about the rains. The 12z Euro did track it over Charleston, SC which would be pretty bad. The 12z EPS was fairly stout for GA to NC landfalls too. I guess wide right is still on the table too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks like it's moving just S of due west! WSW maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Looks like it's moving just S of due west! WSW maybe To my eyes it looks like it's moving due West maybe a little North of West the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 hard to tell because its doing a ERC, and they wobble anyways the general motion for a while now has been W.....will the 00Z Nam runs have the expanded data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 hours ago, timnc910 said: Yea the west trend continues. . It will be interesting to see the 00z suite . 4 hours ago, ncskywarn said: Tonight's 0Z run is going to be intersting with the baloon & G-IV data collected incorporated into it. To see if there will be any changes to model ouptut. Does anyone ever think the next set of model runs will be uninteresting? "No point in staying up for the 00Z suite: they're sure to be a major letdown providing no new information." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Nam a tiny bit slower and deeper with the trough at 00Z versus the 18Z GFS it keeps Irma maybe 50-70 miles NE of the track GFS takes.....obviously it doesnt go far enough to show the turn and well its the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 hours ago, Wow said: Trend of the hurricane models for the day. More north, a bit more west once it cuts north. Yea, models are definitely trending away from interaction with Hispaniola or Cuba. What's interesting is the guidance generally struggles with WSW moving Hurricanes. We saw it w/ Katrina after it went WSW over Florida and into the Loop current in the GOM. The models corrected west solid 150 miles from Florida to New Orleans. They have done the same thing w/ Irma. Whether the west trends have slowed and we start to correct back towards the east remains to be seen. These north curving Canes are so hard to predict b/c the trough timing is always impossible to predict 7 to 10 days out. I'm sure there are many more plot twists to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 hard to tell because its doing a ERC, and they wobble anyways the general motion for a while now has been W.....will the 00Z Nam runs have the expanded data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, downeastnc said: hard to tell because its doing a ERC, and they wobble anyways the general motion for a while now has been W.....will the 00Z Nam runs have the expanded data? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Does anyone ever think the next set of model runs will be uninteresting? "No point in staying up for the 00Z suite: they're sure to be a major letdown providing no new information." I think that every winter storm that's approaching 3 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 34 minutes ago, downeastnc said: hard to tell because its doing a ERC, and they wobble anyways the general motion for a while now has been W.....will the 00Z Nam runs have the expanded data? You sure it's doing a ERC? It just finished one today. There isn't any secondary wind max on the recon data and I can't see the outer eyewall on microwave. Also, NHC makes no mention of an ERC in progress. To me, it looks like it's primed to strengthen. But I'm no expert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, SteveVa said: You sure it's doing a ERC? It just finished one today. There isn't any secondary wind max on the recon data and I can't see the outer eyewall on microwave. Also, NHC makes no mention of an ERC in progress. To me, it looks like it's primed to strengthen. But I'm no expert I meant that she has done one in the last 6-10 hrs and that makes the eye look ragged, she still has a "ugly" eye and hasnt been able to get a good stable eye though the last several frames it finally appears she is stabilizing her eye...so its hard to tell for sure what the motion has been..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 00Z GFS still taking that left turn entering the Bahamas.....if anything its a smidge south of the 18Z at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Yep GFS is a little south of the last run out to 120, but similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 GFS has a heavy hit through the central Keys, then up into SW Florida thru 144. Convection is firing strong around the eye tonight on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Looks to be about the same solution as the 18z model.. I guess we are starting to see a general consensus. .. Not sure we will see much of a correction back to the east Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, timnc910 said: Looks to be about the same solution as the 18z model.. I guess we are starting to see a general consensus. .. Not sure we will see much of a correction back to the east Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Yup, it'll most likely stay the same for upcoming 21-24 runs before possible landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Its just a weird odd track....that W to damn near SW turn in the SE Bahamas is the part that hangs me up, thats a odd path...though its about best case for this thing if it is going to hit the US....comes in over the Everglades instead of right into Miami... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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