Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2017 48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That occurs with the H5 anomaly in the right place, but the trough is sort of filling in and lifting out. The ridge builds NE of it. yeah there's many ways to get it done. Obviously there are those that prefer the idealized set ups at all times ...well behaved from the get go. But sometimes things have to grind out - Sandy was not idealize. wham. Not here of course ...but makes the point nonetheless... I don't think I have ever seen a cyclonic entity modeled below 940 mb's ... actually much below 950, at that particular latitude (100 mi S of Montauk LI and nothing stopping until Narrag. Bay (probably) ends Providence RI as we know it in a solution like that. Speaking just to the fantasy of this run - obviously... That said, it's a little worrisome frankly that the GFS has been so persistent with ungodly low pressure nearing the outer Bahamas... Not for here - per se ... but 'the americas' for f sake. jesus. I've seen three cycles now with sub 900 mb lows at sea level around 25N/70W ... unprecedented modeling behavior, sure. But one helluvan homage to the necessity to sitting up and taking notice. Even if it completely whiffs (still the probable at this range!) ... that's unheralded and operationally that's not some that to f around with that type of top 5 barometric pressure depth. And it's not just deep.. that circulation envelopment is like two to three times larger than the average TC Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ineedsnow Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Would the GFS still be a hurricane when it hits here? A powerful one Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2017 I wonder if I was a betting man what are the chances of Irene hitting the US mainland? What are we 9 days out? I would guess perhaps 25%. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2017 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Well that is quite the weenie run for Irma. The important takeaway is that the 18Z run is west of the 12Z run. Yeeeeah...okay, but not really ... we are so far away from hockey-sticking deteministics that it may as well trend to the Gulf like the Euro before coming all the way back again... so it's not really much of take away to be honest. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I wonder if I was a betting man what are the chances of Irene hitting the US mainland? What are we 9 days out? I would guess perhaps 25%. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Jeez, I guess I could answer my own question! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 1, 2017 That run would probably be catastrophic verbatim. Especially along the coast. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Idea of a fish is losing steam. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Its been a pleasure knowing you all 6 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yea but post the next frame Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea but post the next frame Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 Looks like either Hugo or Sandy Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 18Z GFS is Kevs and James redemption song Old weenies , yes, they dream Dream of destroyed merchant shipsMinutes after they saw a Baro at the bottomless pitBut their dream was made strongBy the run of a lifetime We 38 in this generationTriumphantlyWon't you help to singThese songs of weenies?'Cause all they ever haveRedemption songsRedemption songs 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 59 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Would the GFS still be a hurricane when it hits here? IDK is sustained 120 gusting to 150 hurricane force? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 1, 2017 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like either Hugo or Sandy Carolina crusher I think. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Modfan Posted September 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK is sustained 120 gusting to 150 hurricane force? Looks like anywhere from Key West to Killingly is game on until earlier next week; it will be interesting to track. I am in Dallas for work and I have to come home over the weekend and make sure my Hurricane kit is in order. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
powderfreak Posted September 1, 2017 Pin this thread and unpin Model Mayhem. Thanks from the lazy members. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2017 Even Freak is excited. This is great Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Lol at that GFS run! This sure beats the hell out of discussing dews, lawn troubles and whether we can sneak the odd heat wave on the BDL tarmac. Even if Irma commits hara kiri against Shredderola and vanishes I'll consider these hours well spent. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Lol at that GFS run! This sure beats the hell out of discussing dews, lawn troubles and whether we can sneak the odd heat wave on the BDL tarmac. Even if Irma commits hara kiri against Shredderola and vanishes I'll consider these hours well spent. All together now, sing loudly Won't you help to singThese songs of weenies?'Cause all they ever haveRedemption songsRedemption songs Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 1, 2017 53 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Carolina crusher I think. My gut says FL or Carolinas. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2017 Media hype is starting http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+(RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent)&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dendrite Posted September 1, 2017 Gotta ram this north into VT like '38. Eastside til we die. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bostonseminole Posted September 1, 2017 lol... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: lol... Right over my head, nice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxBlue Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Media hype is starting http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_latest+(RSS%3A+CNN+-+Most+Recent)&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results Social media is a burning dumpster right now. Wise meteorologists are trying to stress the uncertainity of the track, but there are idiots who are spamming everyone's feed with long-range GFS and Euro runs and people keep sharing those instead. It's a big mess. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
New England Storm Posted September 1, 2017 18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Right over my head, nice Oh wow, thank god it's still like 10 days out. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KPITSnow Posted September 1, 2017 So I know it was the 18z GFS, and I know it is ten days out, but that run was one of the scariest things I have ever scene weather wise on a model. Know it won't happen, but if it did obviously would be catastrophic. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
