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Tropical Season 2017


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21 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I would say your location could see a cat 1. All depends on track and speed. You want the storm to be booking it as it heads through the gulf of Maine on a due north track. Rare but possible.

We would need another Juan (high end Cat 2 at 43N), but moving faster as it would have to cross more cool water and then about 60 miles over land, even more for a northeast-quadrant hit.  Not much in the way of serious hills until one reaches the Kennebec Highlands, 10 miles to my south.

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27 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Wow Irma up to 100 mph sustained already. Weird that a storm that strong and that far out and at that latitude doesn't go way out to sea before even sniffing the east coast 

Why? 

systems do in fact upon occasion, leave the west coast of Africa, develop at varying rates... traverse the entire basin, and impact the Americas.   Strength doesn't really have much to do with that frequency - unless someone can actually produce that data. 

"Gloria" and "1938", just to name two popular ones from the annuls were both category 5 at one point.  

I think (maybe) things only seem that was purely for geographical arguments.   The chances that any one system will do so is low just because that's like 1/5th the distance around the planet in a residence of some 10 to 15 days ...Any MDR system has to traverse cleanly without being disrupted by either track alterations, or hostility to strength ... that whole distance; which is inherently asking a lot in the first place.

But the ones that do, ... do  

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I have a question for you tropical guys....   What makes a hurricane larger or smaller in overall size?  I understand intensity better...dry air....eyewall replacement cycles etc.  What I don't understand is overall system  size.  Some storms have hurricane winds/TS winds going out for hundreds of miles.  Other storms are small and compact but still have intense winds right around the eye.  If you have a storm like Irma that forms way out in the Atlantic and has a week over the tropical Atlantic does the overall system grown in size too?   I am guessing it doesn't.  Probably the mid layer moisture/ island interactions/shear all effect size too.  Thoughts?

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This just looks like a classic MDR, Cape Verdi transit system; with one very notable exception. 

They tend to be blithe as they churn without any instruction for days ... During "buckled" flow regimes, they may get coaxed to go right earlier by 'weaknesses' in the geopotential medium as those plumb to unusual depths in latitude and provide paths of lesser resistance.  TCs always then move toward...etc.. 

In this case, we are dealing with an unusual circumstance. The synoptic evolution mid-way across the Basin is unilaterally forecasted to strengthen said geopotential medium...which imparts more NE-SW- steering level vectors between 2 1/2 and 4 ... 4 1/2 days worth of the CV trek. The system being caught up in that (as modeled...) bends it's course back SW during that time.  I have heard others bare reference to the fact that this thing gained a bit of latitude that too early, ... incongruous wrt to other historical examples; however, that bend back to the SW is also unusual relative to that same data set. 

That implies a bit of "uncharted waters" for one. But it also neutralizes that former implication (or should) down to almost none. It's like tying the game up in the beginning of the 2nd Half, and well ... you're looking at at 0-0 contest regardless of the actual score. 

I would almost recommend looking more at analogs beginning in 3 or 4 days from now because at that point, we "should" have a TC moving along by then escaping that SW motion ...and it will be resuming more of a typical beta-drift pattern of motion... 

All of that, plus... the Euro and EPS spraying the track guidance among members clear from Houston to 300 naut mi SE of Halifax NS ...combined with the fact that all guidance are showing some poor consistency with handling the structure/orientation/timing of the larger synoptic picture ... between Chicago and Bermuda doing D 7 to 13 ... that whole period being so nebular, combined with the aforementioned leads me to suggest there is 0 predictive skill ... or very very low percentile for any region west of ~ the 60th longitude axis. 

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4 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well it's one thing to make a forecast and it's another to go with historical precedent.  He's just using the latter.  Does not mean it can't or won't happen though, so we monitor.

Wild Op GFS solutions fwiw.

Which is it....I'm using historical precedent, or making a guarantee?

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