USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 I think it bypasses the trough all together given it will be early September, but it should become a monster, it has everything going for her if she stays on the westerly course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 49 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wouldn't call a path between Bermuda and the US unpopular, at least not for surfers! Still I think this has the potential to be our first long track Cape Verde in a while. It should really jack up ACE too You should be surfing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Eps is barking for an east coast hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is barking for an east coast hit Not really. The individual members almost all either send it into the Gulf or recurve it, which are the two favored outcomes. The EPS control at hour 360 is probably the best way to get your kicks until 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps is barking for an east coast hit Yup just saw ryan maue posted them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Not really. The individual members almost all either send it into the Gulf or recurve it, which are the two favored outcomes. The EPS control at hour 360 is probably the best way to get your kicks until 00z. No they dont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: No they dont Well, they do, but that's alright. It's all for fun at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Well that might show a miss but it's a bit too close for comfort. Long ways to go with some thrills and chills thrown in the next several model runs I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Euro control would make some happy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 We could use the rain up here even if its sub tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Got a good shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 18z gfs gets it down to 897mb. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Euro control would make some happy here Yeah I just put a new roof on my summer house. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Yeah Hazey ... in terms of modeling behavior? I have never in 30 years of using any of them seen a system at that distance of time be modeled like that. Crosses absurdity into the realm of ...I don't - perhaps it was a hiccup run.. Things tend to normalize due to granularity at that range - though hmm... I'm almost thinking they don't spread the grid in the extended anymore. Ever since the went to NCEP's upgrade to the 2 peta-flop computing power I've noticed that things are less fuzzy out there - doesn't say much for accuracy, no.. 897 ..that's a top (or bottom ironically) fiver in pressure for the Atlantic Basin... ank Hurricane Season Pressure hPa inHg 1 Wilma 2005 882 26.05 2 Gilbert 1988 888 26.23 3 "Labor Day" 1935 892 26.34 4 Rita 2005 895 26.43 5 Allen 1980 899 Wilma 882 ; Gilbert 888 ; Lab. Day 892 ; Rita 895 ; ?Irma? 897 ; Allen 899 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 6 hours ago, Hazey said: The fact that the models are hinting that Irma blows up may actually spare the US from a hit. Strong canes tend to move more poleward vs weaker systems. Best case scenario albeit probably unpopular, is for it to split the uprights between the East coast and Bermuda. Way too soon to call that though. I already called it. Smart money on a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 hours ago, Hazey said: I agree but there are a some regulars here that will yawn at this unless it's trashing the NE. The vast majority of weather enthusiasts will yawn at a goal post pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Odds of a land falling cane in New England is quite low, Pretty hard to have high expectations with any tropical system up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I already called it. Smart money on a whiff. You shouldn't track it then if you already quit on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I already called it. Smart money on a whiff. Except nothing shows that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You shouldn't track it then if you already quit on it He didn't quit on it. He made a call and now he has to see if that call was correct. By saying he quit, you are implying emotions are involved with a weather forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Except nothing shows that How many are showing a New England hit?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 27 minutes ago, powderfreak said: He didn't quit on it. He made a call and now he has to see if that call was correct. By saying he quit, you are implying emotions are involved with a weather forecast. Making a call on a Cape Verde just named at 31/16 Is just a guess not a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 36 minutes ago, powderfreak said: He didn't quit on it. He made a call and now he has to see if that call was correct. By saying he quit, you are implying emotions are involved with a weather forecast. It's a guess at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Its all just speculation on where Irma will end up at this lead period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Fun on the loose with Irma la Douce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Always good to call for a hit when the system is in the Cape Verdes. Always happens here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Always good to call for a hit when the system is in the Cape Verdes. Always happens here in SNE. Beware the intensity forecasts too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I guess many of you would love to see your house get blown away, never understood why people root for hurricanes so much even weather junkies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I guess many of you would love to see your house get blown away, never understood why people root for hurricanes so much even weather junkies. Only DIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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