Typhoon Tip Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 that really looks like they have no clue what is going on there... It appeals as a baroclinic mess, but if anything develops E of Jax and moves E of Hatteras it's gonna be a singular entity with a warm core - ...maybe some hybrid tendency in the total physical package of the thing, but it's not likely to be a an amorphous bag of non-committal low pressure like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Good bye and good luck...that is my point of view for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 I'm going on record. The Cape Verde cane soon to develop is going to be a SNE/LI threat in about 10-12 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 GFS trend over last 24h has been to bring future "Irma" closer to clipping extreme SE areas with some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 54 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS trend over last 24h has been to bring future "Irma" closer to clipping extreme SE areas with some rain. Bunch of GFS runs ran Harvey west into Mexico after LF. That model is crack, 1 of 8 runs has a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm going on record. The Cape Verde cane soon to develop is going to be a SNE/LI threat in about 10-12 days O how we pray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Irma has a shot up here if and only if she speeds up, and comes up the coast 6-12 hrs faster than current guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 SHe needs to beat the southwest flow that develops ahead of the upper level low over the MW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm going on record. The Cape Verde cane soon to develop is going to be a SNE/LI threat in about 10-12 days Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice·1h The next easterly wave off Africa has my attention for potential eastern U.S. impacts. Still early.. but I see you. Also, not much behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Ya almost wonder if the flooding can't get worse no matter how much more it rains... Like they get themselves into a hydrostatic balance where the overtop flow off rate is in balance with new rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 Hurricane Harvey wrap up. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/08/hurricane-harvey-verification-and.html Very please with my performance on this historic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Interesting trends for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 7 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice·1h The next easterly wave off Africa has my attention for potential eastern U.S. impacts. Still early.. but I see you. Also, not much behind it That's the one to watch for SNE. Not Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That's the one to watch for SNE. Not Irma lol, KEEP US POSTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: lol, KEEP US POSTED. You stay safe now. Ya hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You stay safe now. Ya hear I'm depending on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I'm depending on you. So for record.. you say no threat from the one after Irma right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: So for record.. you say no threat from the one after Irma right? For the record, it's absurd to claim with any certainty that a cluster of storms in Africa is a threat to New england...2 weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 CXUS54 KHGX 281415 CF6HGX PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: DICKINSON WFO MONTH: AUGUST YEAR: 2017 LATITUDE: 29 28 N LONGITUDE: 95 5 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 92 76 84 2 0 19 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 2 89 75 82 0 0 17 0.27 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 3 89 75 82 0 0 17 0.02 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 4 93 76 85 3 0 20 0.04 0.0 0 M M M M M M 3 M M 5 89 76 83 1 0 18 0.89 0.0 0 M M M M M M 3 M M 6 90 80 85 3 0 20 0.60 0.0 0 M M M M M M 3 M M 7 89 75 82 0 0 17 1.40 0.0 0 M M M M M M 3 M M 8 89 74 82 0 0 17 0.50 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 9 93 77 85 3 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 10 93 78 86 4 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 11 94 79 87 5 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 12 96 79 88 6 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 13 94 80 87 5 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 14 94 80 87 5 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 15 95 81 88 6 0 23 0.01 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 16 95 81 88 6 0 23 T 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 17 94 81 88 6 0 23 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 18 95 79 87 5 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 19 96 78 87 5 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 20 94 77 86 4 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 21 93 77 85 3 0 20 T 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 22 94 76 85 3 0 20 0.00 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 23 91 77 84 2 0 19 0.03 0.0 0 M M M M M M 3 M M 24 92 77 85 3 0 20 0.01 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M 25 83 75 79 -3 0 14 2.79 0.0 0 M M M M M M 3 M M 26 84 75 80 -2 0 1514.40 0.0 0 M M M M M M 3 M M 27 82 75 79 -3 0 1416.08 0.0 0 M M M M M M M M ================================================================================ SM 2472 2089 0 531 37.04 0.0 M M M ================================================================================ AV 91.6 77.4 M FASTST M M 4 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> M M M M ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: DICKINSON WFO MONTH: AUGUST YEAR: 2017 LATITUDE: 29 28 N LONGITUDE: 95 5 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 84.5 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 37.04 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 2.5 DPTR FM NORMAL: 32.81 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 96 ON 19,12 GRTST 24HR 16.08 ON 27-27 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 74 ON 8 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 0.0 INCH 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 0.0 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 0 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 13 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 19 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 8 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 7 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 4 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 0 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 0 TOTAL FM JUL 1 0 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 0 DPTR FM NORMAL 0 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 531 DPTR FM NORMAL 72 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 2533 HIGHEST SLP M ON M DPTR FM NORMAL 570 LOWEST SLP M ON M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Is this real? Houston Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Is this real? Houston Airport. Wow if not photoshopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Wow if not photoshopped I posted it in the main Harvey thread and numerous people said its fake and photoshopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Very much fake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I posted it in the main Harvey thread and numerous people said its fake and photoshopped Ok I was going to say, that should be on the cover of every national news station if it's real. I mean that would be something else. Hard to tell what's real or fake when 40" of rain falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 54 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Very much fake very fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Future IRMA could very well explode into a hybrid monster southeast of Nantucket, stay tuned as a non developed tropical cyclone is hard to forecast for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Okay James ... it's time to rein it back in ma-man ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 It is hard for the models to get a handle on a developing tropical cyclone as there is no definitive center of circulation. Ok maybe not explode but become a good sized tropical hybrid system, although the wind shear is decreasing by about 10-20 knots in the last three hours, low level convergence and upper level divergence are increasing substantially as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 I just saw this image posted online and I'm very surprised that BOX put this map out. It overlays the Texas precip estimates over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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