CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 we fish on the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: we fish on the 6z GFS. Unless you live in Bremuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: we fish on the 6z GFS. We're curving I wanna recurve with you We're curving, we're curving And Irma wants to recurve too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Euro really backed off the WAR. Would make sense, given the tenor of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: We're curving I wanna recurve with you We're curving, we're curving And Irma wants to recurve too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 We gonna be flying', like acorns, in Tolland. Flyin', like acorns, in Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 idk allot of confused members in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 43 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: idk allot of confused members in there A lot of confused members in here too. Still room for a lot of error at this time range...not just with a subsynoptic scale tropical system, but for the synoptic/global pattern as well. It's worth tracking, but people need to remember that consensus at this range means little...lots of options on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: A lot of confused members in here too. Still room for a lot of error at this time range...not just with a subsynoptic scale tropical system, but for the synoptic/global pattern as well. It's worth tracking, but people need to remember that consensus at this range means little...lots of options on the table. Singin' sweet songsOf weenies pure and trueSayin', this is my message to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 You guys are getting too abstract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 00z eps track density. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 A few goodies on the GGEM ensembles Especially number 5 https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=0&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=gz 934mb South of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You guys are getting too abstract. Don't worry about a thing'Cause every little thing gonna be alrightSinging' don't worry about a thing'Cause every little thing gonna be alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 00z eps track density. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: More US misses than the 12z from yesterday. Farther north, less gulf tracks. I like the density on the u of a products but obviously only goes out to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 It's 10 days out. Of course the forecast ridging is going to pulse in strength which has dramatic effect on the projected track. I see nothing wrong with taking a stab at a possible LF location. It's just speculation at this time. If it turn out wrong...well it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Singin' sweet songsOf weenies pure and trueSayin', this is my message to you Three little weenies Twitch on Kev's doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hazey said: It's 10 days out. Of course the forecast ridging is going to pulse in strength which has dramatic effect on the projected track. I see nothing wrong with taking a stab at a possible LF location. It's just speculation at this time. If it turn out wrong...well it's wrong. I dont think anyone said this lol. Just comment about a difference between the 00z and 12z eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 22 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: I have a question for you tropical guys.... What makes a hurricane larger or smaller in overall size? I understand intensity better...dry air....eyewall replacement cycles etc. What I don't understand is overall system size. Some storms have hurricane winds/TS winds going out for hundreds of miles. Other storms are small and compact but still have intense winds right around the eye. If you have a storm like Irma that forms way out in the Atlantic and has a week over the tropical Atlantic does the overall system grown in size too? I am guessing it doesn't. Probably the mid layer moisture/ island interactions/shear all effect size too. Thoughts? Still slogging my way through the high fives and TD spikes on a landfalling major in New England, but I'm going to answer this anyway. Research has found positive correlations with size and intensity, which is fairly intuitive. Stronger storm is more likely to be a larger storm. But the greatest relationships are tied to latent heat flux, so SST. And not absolute value of SST, but relative SST. A larger reservoir of warm temps will lead to a larger system. Especially if you can get some cooler than normal temps aloft (allows for more convective potential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 19 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: EURO and GFS worlds apart.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just a small town Kev Wanting to be called The Rev Took ensemble member P005 going o-ver him.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Comin' straight outta Verde Crazy hurricane named Irma From the gang called Cyclones with Attitude When I recurve, weenies lose nerve 8 day track and I head out seaward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said: Comin' straight outta Verde Crazy hurricane named Irma From the gang called Cyclones with Attitude When I recurve, weenies lose nerve 8 day track and I head out seaward. LOL, I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 When something happens in south central Atlantic, nothing happens...it's just another cane dead.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just a small town Kev Wanting to be called The Rev Took ensemble member P005 going o-ver him.... A weenie in a basement roomThe smell of mold and cheap perfumeFor a while he can share his plightIt goes on and on, and on, and on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Must be 420 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Not to be a tropical Grinch ... but, consuming all data sources to date and also keeping the coveted hope people only think they hide ... out of the equation as much as possible, your chances of a strike up here in New England are still very low - yet, we "weather" the tenor of odious skies. it's almost funny - I'm surprised there isn't more dialogue/conjecture being shared about the sub 550 thicknesses and even snow over eastern Ontario on just September 1 - THAT is interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 And from a 16th century weather weenie: Lennox: Goes the king hence to-day? Macbeth: He does: he did appoint so. Lennox: The night has been unruly: where we lay, Our chimneys were blown down… Macbeth: ‘Twas a rough night. —Act II, Scene III of Shakespeare’s “Macbeth” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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