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July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The heaviest is south of Allentown and heading ese. The batch in central PA seems to be aimed at the I80 corridor

Yeah with that first batch near Allentown it looks as if we're just gonna get a light to moderate shower here, while the heavy stuff goes down into Burlington and Ocean counties. I hope we can at least squeeze out a half inch of rain from this event. The soil is pretty dry right now. I'm holding off on watering the vegetable garden, hoping we get a decent amount of rain.

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Current radar trends would tend to favor the NAM 3K idea with a more southerly trajectory for this feature vs the Euro.  With the exception of the HRRR, the models do not seem to be picking up on the ongoing convection over SE PA very well which will impact how the feature now over north central PA performs over our area this evening.  In any case the 18z run of the HRRR has a stripe of 1 - 3" amounts across the area from west to east especially south of I-80 in NJ.

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14 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Current radar trends would tend to favor the NAM 3K idea with a more southerly trajectory for this feature vs the Euro.  With the exception of the HRRR, the models do not seem to be picking up on the ongoing convection over SE PA very well which will impact how the feature now over north central PA performs over our area this evening.  In any case the 18z run of the HRRR has a stripe of 1 - 3" amounts across the area from west to east especially south of I-80 in NJ.

21z HRRR went nuts, with a band of 4 to 5 inch amounts just south of the city (Mercer to Monmouth).

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Congrats philly again!! Amazing severe spot the last few years. Just some drizzle here in Susquehanna county Pa. Fine with me as they had 4" of rain here last week. Let's see if anything survives to the island or it just fizzles like usual 

59 MPH wind gust measured in Camden, NJ as that line moved through that area.

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6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Congrats philly again!! Amazing severe spot the last few years. Just some drizzle here in Susquehanna county Pa. Fine with me as they had 4" of rain here last week. Let's see if anything survives to the island or it just fizzles like usual 

This reminds me of five or six years ago when everything would slam into Philly and Monmouth and Ocean County right after they had the 2009-10 winter

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57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This reminds me of five or six years ago when everything would slam into Philly and Monmouth and Ocean County right after they had the 2009-10 winter

Best storm I've ever been in was 5 years ago in Brick, NJ. 70 mph gusts and constant CG strikes with incredible mammatus afterwards (which is in my profile pic.)

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There is a stationary front running roughly parallel to I-78 in eastern PA and central NJ.  There is a mesoscale low traversing the front from west to east and that is causing the rains in that area.  If you check the Mt. Holly hourly obs and look closely at the dewpoints you can see it.  The front separates an air mass with dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s with a different air mass with dewpoints in low to mid 70s to the south.  The front is acting as a lifting mechanism and that is helping to cause the rain.  

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