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July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This will be one of the coolest last weeks of July during the 2010's for the Northeast. So monthly temperature departures will continue to get smaller. Our last 4 cooler endings to July didn't have much August heat in 2013, 2007, 2004, and 2000. So we'll see if this pattern holds this August.





I always thought the blue color pallet made it seem worse than what the forecast truly was in this case -1 to -2 over the period.  I think this week (end of July) period 7/25 - 7/31 will come down to clouds/rain on how cool vs average it can get.  You also have 850s on Thu/Fri 18-22C  nearby so any sun those days could yield sneaky 90s.  The end of Jul 2012 had a break in that summers heat (very different than this summer) but it was near normal the last 6 days.

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If Newark fails to reach 90 during 7/25-7/31, then it will be the first time since 2013.

..Northeastern New Jersey...
   Newark, NJ
     /78    67/77    64/79    67/84    72/85    70/84    70/85
      /60    40/20    10/10    10/30    50/50    30/20    10/10






Totally agree but im not sold the last week of July and lack of 90s is a significant analog for a cooler than normal August, despite that trend the last 7 years.  There is some hint on guidance of the W Atlantic Ridge building west by lat July/early August and even without that the pattern this summer would argue the next piece from the western furnace will move east for a period on/around 8/4.

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