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bluewave

July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread

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NYC July decade temperature averages...

July........temp......max...min ave max/min................................................
1870's.....75.7.......na.....na.....na.....na
1880's.....74.6.......99.....54.....92.6.....59.2
1890's.....74.7.....100.....55.....95.1.....58.1
1900's.....76.1.....100.....56.....94.4.....60.0
1910's.....75.4.....100.....56.....96.1.....59.2
1920's.....74.7.....100.....54.....94.7.....57.5
1930's.....76.7.....106.....54.....97.9.....59.2
1940's.....76.7.....102.....52.....96.0.....58.6
1950's.....77.1.....101.....57.....96.3.....60.5
1960's.....76.0.....103.....54.....96.1.....59.3
1970's.....76.8.....104.....53.....95.0.....58.7
1980's.....77.4.....102.....53.....96.5.....59.2
1990's.....77.5.....102.....57.....97.1.....61.1
2000's.....75.6.......97.....56.....92.6.....60.5
2010's.....79.1.....104.....61.....98.3.....62.7.....2010-16

1870/1880-
2009 ave 76.1.....106.....52.....95.4.....59.3
1980-
2009 ave 76.8.....102.....53.....95.4.....60.3

Warmest...
81.4 in 1999
81.3 in 2010
80.9 in 1955
80.3 in 1952
80.2 in 2011
80.1 in 1993
80.0 in 1908

79.8 in 2013
79.7 in 1966
79.6 in 1949
79.5 in 1983
79.4 in 1994
79.4 in 1944
Coolest...
70.7 in 1888
71.9 in 1884
72.1 in 1914
72.3 in 2000
72.3 in 1871
72.4 in 1891
72.6 in 1895
72.7 in 2009
72.8 in 1902
72.8 in 1869
Wettest...
11.89" in 1889
11.77" in 1975
_9.56" in 1897
_8.89" in 1928
_8.52" in 1880
_8.50" in 1919
_8.36" in 1997
_8.29" in 1960
_8.14" in 1988
_7.83" in 1872
Driest...
0.44" in 1999
0.49" in 1910
0.51" in 1955
0.89" in 1924
0.89" in 1907
0.96" in 1959
0.99" in 1939
1.05" in 2002
1.09" in 1998
1.13" in 1893
Hottest Max. Temp.
106 7/09/1936
104 7/21/1977
104 7/22/2011
103 7/03/1966
103 7/06/2010
102 7/21/1957
102 7/31/1933
102 7/10/1936
102 7/10/1993
102 7/21/1980
102 7/21/1991
102 7/19/1977
102 7/15/1995
102 7/23/2011
Coolest Monthly Max.
86 in 2009
87 in 2004
89 in 2000
89 in 1996
89 in 1889
89 in 1888
Warmest min...
84 7/07/1908
84 7/15/1995
84 7/22/2011
83 7/23/2011
83 7/06/1999
82 7/02/1901
82 7/02/1872
82 7/03/2002
82 7/21/1980
82 7/05/1999
82 7/31/1933
Coolest min...
52 7/01/1943
53 7/05/1979
53 7/01/1988
54 7/06/1979
54 7/09/1963
54 7/05/1927
54 7/03/1933
54 7/13/1888
Coolest daily max...
61 7/06/1956
62 7/04/1978
62 7/05/1882

62 7/25/1871
63 7/09/1964
64 7/03/1914
64 7/04/1941
64 7/05/1956
64 7/11/1917

66 7/05/1972

66 7/08/2005

66 7/21/1956

Most 90+ days...
20 in 1993
18 in 1999
17 in 1944
16 in 1966
16 in 2010
14 in 1952
14 in 1955
14 in 1983
14 in 2011

........................................

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79.1 avg in the 2010s so far is impressive. I wonder how that  avg will hold up through the rest of the decade.

..and thats in the Park I wonder what LGA avg is. 

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The trough will dominate the northeast this whole summer in my opinion. Look at the GFS 18z I mean we'll have below normal summer if this continues or at least normal. We don't need another hot summer let's be honest here.

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26 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

The trough will dominate the northeast this whole summer in my opinion. Look at the GFS 18z I mean we'll have below normal summer if this continues or at least normal. We don't need another hot summer let's be honest here.

Lmao sure. Its summer man just enjoy it. 

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55 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

The trough will dominate the northeast this whole summer in my opinion. Look at the GFS 18z I mean we'll have below normal summer if this continues or at least normal. We don't need another hot summer let's be honest here.

C'mon Feen, we already have a hot and humid period coming up beginning on Thursday that will take us right into the weekend.  

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4 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Lmao sure. Its summer man just enjoy it. 

Agreed, summer tends to fly by once we get past the solstice.

It would be nice to see some heat records get broken though, so far I see somewhat above normal temps but nothing record breaking.

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12 hours ago, dWave said:

79.1 avg in the 2010s so far is impressive. I wonder how that  avg will hold up through the rest of the decade.

..and thats in the Park I wonder what LGA avg is. 

So far this is the warmest July decade on record for LGA. The average temperature has been 80.3 with 5 out of the 7 years in the top 10 warmest. It was also a little warmer on average than the 81-10 normals for Raleigh, NC in July at 80.0 degrees. 

Year/Temp/Rank/Departure

2010...82.8...#1....+5.7

2011...80.4...#10..+3.0

2012...80.5...#9...+3.1

2013...81.2...#3....+3.8

2014...77.0............-0.4

2015...79.2...........+1.8

2016...81.1...#4.....+3.7

 

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Agreed, summer tends to fly by once we get past the solstice.

It would be nice to see some heat records get broken though, so far I see somewhat above normal temps but nothing record breaking.

Fly by? It's only the beginning, July & Aug are hotter than June, and Sept isn't far behind.

Winter doesn't fly by once we reach the solstice, it only gets colder and snowier from there on out.

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On 6/27/2017 at 8:38 AM, bluewave said:

Looks like July will get off to a warm start with the potential for low 90's in the warm spots on Saturday. We will also continue the theme of measurable weekend rainfall going back to mid-April as the front nearby will trigger convection. At 500 mb the weekend will feature a WAR pattern here with a trough to our west. Looking ahead to day 10, ensembles develop a heat dome over the Plains with a piece of this heat possibly working east. Could be your typical MCS pattern developing near Iowa to the UP of Michigan and then tracking east. It will be a short term call on how close this convection gets to our area.

 

eps_z500a_noram_21.thumb.png.f2eb29a054e0c0a301c9de7cbcf15ad0.png

 

eps_z500a_noram_41.thumb.png.645675cddbe75c4ee8dc71dd6e4c376c.png

Will be interesting if anyone sees 90s this weekend with the convection chances

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Impressively cooler than previous years on the GFS 18z, again the trough does not give up the whole entire run. Honestly, I'm happy about that because who wants heat...This weather has been perfect! 

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12 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Impressively cooler than previous years on the GFS 18z, again the trough does not give up the whole entire run. Honestly, I'm happy about that because who wants heat...This weather has been perfect! 

Looks like a continuation of the June pattern with the major heat staying put over the Western or Central US for the start of July. 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_1.thumb.png.9d21a8fedcc3721488243c4bd0b87c61.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_6.thumb.png.ed0765e273395dc4d40857f5a3c9e9a6.png

 

 

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Meltdown mode will start tomorrow as a bunch of fireworks events probably get cancelled for Saturday evening for no reason.  The boundary continues to slow and steering flow ahead of it looks mainly S-SSW, I would be surprised if anybody east of an SWF-TTN line saw much of anything prior to 01-02Z outside of some isolated activity from 18-22 but these media forecasts will probably screw everyone over again 

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On 6/28/2017 at 7:57 AM, bluewave said:

So far this is the warmest July decade on record for LGA. The average temperature has been 80.3 with 5 out of the 7 years in the top 10 warmest. It was also a little warmer on average than the 81-10 normals for Raleigh, NC in July at 80.0 degrees. 

Year/Temp/Rank/Departure

2010...82.8...#1....+5.7

2011...80.4...#10..+3.0

2012...80.5...#9...+3.1

2013...81.2...#3....+3.8

2014...77.0............-0.4

2015...79.2...........+1.8

2016...81.1...#4.....+3.7

 

The cities in the northeast are perhaps warming up the fastest of anywhere. Rural sections not as much, perhaps elevation or more trees and less concrete in those areas.

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Strongest heat relative to the means over the next week to 10 days remains focused over the Central and Western US. You can see the ridge reloading right over the quickly developing extreme drought conditions in Montana and the Dakotas.

 

20170627_usdm_home.thumb.png.80f592312b501aa344b1bbc63e7baf07.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_1.thumb.png.bdd4e2e29cb681ccb6741510cd482a65.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_6.thumb.png.c9bac0b33847501af1973d4565de9548.png

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Im on nyc ferry headed into lower manhattan into a t storm it look like.  This could be interesting.

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10 minutes ago, dWave said:

Im on nyc ferry headed into lower manhattan into a t storm it look like.  This could be interesting.

AT 239 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER NEW YORK HARBOR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

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29 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

AT 239 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER NEW YORK HARBOR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

That storm clipped me  with  0.15" rain, no thunder...amounts were higher just south and east of me.

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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

AT 239 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. THIS
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER NEW YORK HARBOR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

That was accurate. Never experienced a storm from that vantage point.  

 

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7/1 highs:

TEB: 91
PHL: 89
New Brunswick: 88
TTN: 88
EWR: 85
ACY: 86
LGA: 85
NYC: 85
ISP: 77
JFK: 78

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...stratus/low clouds hanging tough here on ELI..W component of wind 

should scour out whats remaining..making what should be a good beach day.

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As expected, we continued the theme since mid-April of getting measurable rain on most weekends since then. This must be the summer version of the weekend rule.;) In any event, today and tomorrow look better. Highs in the upper 80's to perhaps a few low 90's at the warm spots. Still no major 95-100 degree heat showing up as the heat dome will set up over the Western or Central US early this month.

 

eps_z500a_5d_noram_21.thumb.png.b8b7ededd8b57a595cbd125d8c17196e.png

eps_z500a_5d_noram_41.thumb.png.408c903c9bd45c2b6b7ceae39d88e01b.png

 

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9 hours ago, SACRUS said:

7/1 highs:

TEB: 91
PHL: 89
New Brunswick: 88
TTN: 88
EWR: 85
ACY: 86
LGA: 85
NYC: 85
ISP: 77
JFK: 78

Looks like KDXR (13 miles from me) didn't break 80. It was soupy though and just a few minutes of doing stuff outside was super sweaty work.

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July average temperature since 1980 for Philadelphia...

July.....Temp.....max.....min.....

1980.....78.5.......99.......58

1981.....76.9.......95.......58

1982.....76.9.......94.......55

1983.....77.9.......99.......57

1984.....73.9.......90.......56

1985.....75.4.......90.......57

1986.....78.1.......98.......52

1987.....78.1.......97.......58

1988.....80.7.....102.......52

1989.....76.3.......94.......60.......1980-89 ave...77.51 ave.....95.8 ave max...56.3 ave min...

1990.....78.0.......97.......60

1991.....79.0.......99.......65

1992.....77.1.......97.......61

1993.....81.4.....101.......66

1994.....81.2.......99.......66

1995.....81.5.....103.......61

1996.....74.4.......89.......59

1997.....77.5.......98.......60

1998.....77.5.......94.......62

1999.....81.2.....100.......55.......1990-99 ave...78.88 ave.....97.7 ave max...61.5 ave min...

2000.....74.1.......91.......60

2001.....75.4.......94.......58

2002.....79.6.......99.......62

2003.....78.8.......95.......65

2004.....76.3.......93.......62

2005.....78.9.......98.......62

2006.....79.5.......98.......62

2007.....77.3.......96.......58

2008.....79.3.......96.......65

2009.....75.9.......92.......60.......2000-09 ave...77.51 ave.....95.2 ave max...61.4 ave min...

2010.....81.8.....103.......61

2011.....82.4.....103.......66

2012.....81.8.....101.......64

2013.....80.6.......98.......63

2014.....78.0.......96.......62

2015.....79.2.......95.......64

2016.....81.2.......97.......65.......2010-16 ave...80.7.. ave.....99.0 ave max...63.6 ave min...

1980-

2009.....78.6.....96.2.......59.7

2010-

2016.....80.7.....99.0.......63.6

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