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July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I know that only a handful of Augusts in NYC have averaged warmer than July in any given year.  It may be 4 or 5.  And all of them had insanely mild Decembers.  It's certainly a small sample size but I think I every time it's happened the early winter has been warm. 

the last eight August's that were at least one degree warmer than July had 4 cold and 4 warm Decembers...1969, 1980, 2005 and 2009 had cold Decembers...1956, 1984, 1996 and 2001 had warm Decembers...the last 18 that had a warmer August than July including the last two years had 8 cold and 10 warm Decembers...1947, 1960 and 2000 had a slightly warmer August than July...the three had a cold and snowy December...the last two Decembers were mild...

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Still no official 3 day heatwaves showing up for the next week to 10 days at places like EWR and LGA as the major heat remains focused over the Western US. The last heatwave for LGA or EWR was back during June 11-13. So we are on track for at least a one month gap between heatwaves.

 

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Feen may have been onto something. Damn.

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 

As much as everyone laughs at him he's not dumb. He just has a funny way going about things. 

So far just some drizzle on the island. Waiting for the big show tonight 

 

He posted that there wouldnt be anymore thunderstorms this summer...in late June.

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Wonder why it's so much below average in the CO Rockies?    Heck of a year for the west-big cold and snows last winter and now big heat for the summer.

 

26 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Yeah, strange for that huge ridge to be over the west but that random patch of well BN there...

Snowcover...

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Not hard to see where the real heat will continue to set up out west. The extreme drought has developed rapidly since May over the Dakotas and Montana. At the same time, the drought over the SE was eliminated by record rainfall. 

 

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Looking ahead while no sustained heat is likely into the northeast, the usual warmer spots in NJ/NYC have shots of 90 (Sat, Tue, Thu/Fri) all pending on storms and clouds.  The first week of July should see most sites at or above normal.   Beyond there, into the second half of July it'll be interesting to see when the next blast of the furnace comes east for longer than a day or two or if it more of the same even-steven temps-wise overall and wetter/stormier than normal.  I have to think the WAR will link with the Rockies ridge at some point in the second haf of July and setup a longer duration heat signal perhaps on/around the Jul 17-22 timeframe.

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2 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

I said there wouldn't be any widespread thunderstorms anymore. You may get scattered thunderstorms absolutely but the real lines we got last week and two weeks ago are gone!

That is an absurd statement to make, and not verifiable. It's early July, we are just entering thunderstorm season. 

What is your reasoning for this statement?

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6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That is an absurd statement to make, and not verifiable. It's early July, we are just entering thunderstorm season. 

What is your reasoning for this statement?

 A severe threat between THu-Fri next week could be potent.

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3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 A severe threat between THu-Fri next week could be potent.

Yeah, our tradeoff this summer so far has been more moisture instead of heat outside that single heatwave back in June when LGA hit 101.

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Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, our tradeoff this summer so far has been more moisture instead of heat outside that single heatwave back in June when LGA hit 101.

The park is already like 1.3" AN on precip for July. Let's keep it going. We're having frequent nice downpours, but nothing excessive.

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4 minutes ago, Morris said:

The park is already like 1.3" AN on precip for July. Let's keep it going. We're having frequent nice downpours, but nothing excessive.

An impressive 20 days since June 1st with a T or more of rainfall. That single heatwave back in June was the only time that the ridge could build enough to allow the heat to overperform.

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

An impressive 20 days since June 1st with a T or more of rainfall. That single heatwave back in June was the only time that the ridge could build enough to allow the heat to overperform.

I have yet to break out the lawn sprinkler this year.   Just when it starts to get dry, we get storms/showers.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like another brief shot of heat on the EPS for next Tuesday with good convective chances again. That could be our warmest day of July so far.

 

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Pending on storms i like Thu/Fri heat potential as well 850s 17 - 20+

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