nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Last post from me about the ukie. I don't care what the verbatim output shows. A 989 over the delmarva is gping to bring mixing issues for some west of 95. Me included. How much is hard to say. But historical data is strong showing the likely hood. And I'm totally good with that. It's a qpf bomb. If it mixes then sobeit. Most would still be thrilled with the outcome. Onto the euro. Yep, we would certainly mix in that scenario but I'd be totally fine with it as it wouldn't be a driving rain waiting for cold to catch up/watching the radar dry up. It'd be snow to mix to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Temps in the teens and 20s all through the upper Midwest and northeast right now. Feels chilly out too even with the quiet winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Temps in the teens and 20s all through the upper Midwest and northeast right now. Feels chilly out too even with the quiet winds. Couldn't ask for a better cold setup in March, let alone January or early February.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Superstorm said: Couldn't ask for a better cold setup in March, let alone January or early February. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's always more difficult to get cold than precip here so yea there's reason to be bullish on at least a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 First cut from our friend Terpweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Paleocene said: Agreed. At least you're above the fall line. I'm on a hill in hyattsville, but that only puts me about 150 feet ASL. Honestly, I'd be happy with a storm that mixes with heavy sleet. Seeing everything just totally coated in ice, or ice in snow snow layers, is cool. 3/93 had jagged edged sleet-chunks pouring down at the height of the storm larger than some hail I've seen before. That helped make that middle layer rock hard after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Last post from me about the ukie. I don't care what the verbatim output shows. A 989 over the delmarva is gping to bring mixing issues for some west of 95. Me included. How much is hard to say. But historical data is strong showing the likely hood. And I'm totally good with that. It's a qpf bomb. If it mixes then sobeit. Most would still be thrilled with the outcome. Onto the euro. I don't know why we should be surprised that things are trending towards what is the historical norm around here. Coastals do what coastals do for us. It's a balancing act of temps v track to get a big storm. And to get big totals usually means a risk of mixing p-types. And that is OK. The favorable areas will do well again and those on the edge will be again as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcolger Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Its 35 degrees at 2 o'clock in College Park. Win🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸Make America Great Again 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: I don't know why we should be surprised that things are trending towards what is the historical norm around here. Coastals do what coastals do for us. It's a balancing act of temps v track to get a big storm. And to get big totals usually means a risk of mixing p-types. And that is OK. The favorable areas will do well again and those on the edge will be again as well. I'm not surprised at all. I've lived in md for 41 of the last 48 years. I posted mostly in response to the verbatim analysis picking apart fine details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GEFS probabilities: 1",3",6" 99.9% 12"+ 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Still very cold here. Not close to the forecasted high, so that's pretty good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: GEFS probabilities: 1",3",6" 99.9% 12"+ 50% That's insane... and excellent at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Is the Euro starting now or at 245? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: First cut from our friend Terpweather. That looks reasonable to me. No harm in kicking up the numbers later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Is the Euro starting now or at 245? Now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: That looks reasonable to me. No harm in kicking up the numbers later. I like CWG's map a lot, and his map isn't really that different. Just a tad more conservative all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: Which model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Which model is that? RPM or "in house model" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: If that even came close to being true... I wish and so would this forum... but isn't RPM an okay model? Or does it suck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Which model is that? RPM model. Grain of Target brine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: If that even came close to being true... I wish and so would this forum... but isn't RPM an okay model? Or does it suck? psure it's total sh1t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Interesting how much the qpf/accumulation varies between models at this range. From what I get this is an inherent feature of Miller B's. Is there a particular tracer we should be looking at to figure out when/where this will bomb out along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 " The RPM model is our in-house real-time forecast model, and the letters stands for Rapid Precision Mesoscale model. The output allows the display of the latest forecast information on our television graphics. The model uses the very successful Weather Research and Forecast model as its forecast engine, a collaborative effort between a host of government and academic agencies. The model is run every three hours out to a period of 51 hours, allowing frequent updates to our forecast products, most important in critical weather situations. Like any weather forecast model, it has its ups and downs, but overall it has been very helpful for our weather forecast efforts. "http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/weather/ct-wea-0503-asktom-20150502-column.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 ⚡️⚡️⚡️Monday Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What I wouldn't do for 24-30 inches of snow. That said, RPM is really unreliable and pretty jumped from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, evaporativecooler said: Interesting how much the qpf/accumulation varies between models at this range. From what I get this is an inherent feature of Miller B's. Is there a particular tracer we should be looking at to figure out when/where this will bomb out along the coast? This isn't really a miller B though it's an A/B hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sadly some local Baltimore mets love it and swear by it. No clue why. RPM is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Not sure what he QPF is, but Euro's 48hr panel looks glorious. 850 0C line is just east of the cities. 987 mb off Wallops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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