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powderfreak

March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Storm cancelled.  We're in "Storm Mode"

so you're saying we can't post about Dendrite eating his chickens?

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like the nam is gonna try and dryslot powderfreak again. It is so ridiculously amped, lol. 

Shoots the low right over winter hill.

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23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'm in the same boat as you.  Gotta get up over 15" to make it an experience.  Seen a ton of storms that high.  Already had 2 12" storms this season.

I'm not even trying to sound spoiled, but think about the rarity of them. Is it really worth getting steer horned or snake bitten from that? Meh. Now if this was 4/1/97....I would probably isolate myself from society for at least 1 yr. 

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Funny thing about 6z GFS (apologies it was hours ago but this was not commented) is that you might initially expect system to be at least as far west as 0z GFS based on H5 look... but a lobe of vorticity swings around the base of the trough and tugs the system east. That model is struggling with all this energy.

NAM again highlights risk of over-amped southern stream system... congrats far northwest Philly burbs into NY on that run

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gotta love the airmass as Jerry said. NAM still gives me a foot even with that ridiculous track. 

Yeah everyone thinks the more hugged tracks mean no snow.

Even the worst case scenario is 10"+ for most...except up here, worst case is whiff, lol.

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Fwiw the para which will be the NAM soon is more similar to other guidance as is the srefs mean.

Yeah its definitely more tempered down than the OP NAM.

Storm still in progress in the north but pretty widespread 8-18".

namp_3hr_snow_a_east_29.thumb.png.c4f8b43081034a339d0df2d42920d692.png

 

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

00z Sunday if I recall.  

Yes

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If I stay, it shoots up the Hudson. 

Make sure to use plenty of SPF50

44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'd eat one of my chickens for an 18" storm.

I would have already consumed 2 if that was the case............lol

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Crushed. Your typical BDL-ASH track. 

Brian,  when was the last time we had a big storm track like this?  Just seems we have had so many that our area is fringed as the track is near the benchmark.  Sorry for most of the guys on these boards but this is a track for us up here.  Plenty of time for shifts but love this track for me....

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Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  when was the last time we had a big storm track like this.  Just seems we have had so many that our area is fringed as the track is near the benchmark.  Sorry for most of the guys on these boards but this is a track for us up here.  Plenty of time for shifts but love this track for me....

First of all I wouldn't believe the NAM. I agree with Jer...maybe over CC Canal? Either way you look good right now. Of course the best deformation could also setup to our NW into Vermont. It's a little early for that still. 

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Low confidence/persistence prediction: given how amped N Stream shortwaves have come in this year--in general--I suspect when this one comes ashore we see guidance correct to a more amplified and phased final solution. 

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4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Low confidence/persistence prediction: given how amped N Stream shortwaves have come in this year--in general--I suspect when this one comes ashore we see guidance correct to a more amplified and phased final solution. 

Wouldn't be overly shocking. Congrats BTV and Dacks when all is said and done?

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