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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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Had 6-12 for Randolph County yesterday: Thought we'd see a tick back west with better qpf as slp would be tight to the coast like the ukmet has been saying for days. A textbook  perfect track for this area is progged. Gonna bump the window up to 8 to 14. See Allan has 8-12. Some spot , most likely to the NE of Asheboro has the potential to squeze out another tenth maybe .2 of qpf so I think a 13 or 14 inch micro lollipop report is possible. Think 9-10 will be the lowest so the 8 gives wiggle room on low end. going off 10-1 ratios but I know we can get into 12-1 latter half of storm. Gonna study up on that latter today. Anyway have fun tracking, hope everyone gets suprised for the better for a change. Nice to have any kind of winter storm but even better when it has potential to be a SECHS.

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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

Man, that map you just posted has an incredible minimum between NW piedmont and the mountains.  That leeside dryslot is totally worrying me now.  This is my greatest fear right now:

Snow accumulation map

That storm was an almost entirely different setup than this one... It was a very strong bowling ball type ULL that moved just too far south for areas along the escarpment.. it rained most of the day ahead of the ULL also..

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I'll be living vicariously in your obs thread. I'm really stoked for you folks that get hit flush. I've said multiple times over the years that I root for you guys and I hope this one closes interstates and paralyzes neighborhoods for a little while. Some may think that's a nasty thing to root for but anyone who knows me...that's how I roll. And I know it's how many of you roll too. Even a fair # of those who deny it. LOL

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll be living vicariously in your obs thread. I'm really stoked for you folks that get hit flush. I've said multiple times over the years that I root for you guys and I hope this one closes interstates and paralyzes neighborhoods for a little while. Some may think that's a nasty thing to root for but anyone who knows me...that's how I roll. And I know it's how many of you roll too. Even a fair # of those who deny it. LOL

Go Big or Go Home! Thanks

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll be living vicariously in your obs thread. I'm really stoked for you folks that get hit flush. I've said multiple times over the years that I root for you guys and I hope this one closes interstates and paralyzes neighborhoods for a little while. Some may think that's a nasty thing to root for but anyone who knows me...that's how I roll. And I know it's how many of you roll too. Even a fair # of those who deny it. LOL

Thanks for dropping in Bob!  Nailing down the final amounts and locales is a trial  

Lots and lots of winter left for you guys up there. 

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Well, my southern brothers and sisters, it's nowcasting time. Ever since I left the N.C. Piedmont, I've still vicariously tracked these events with y'all. I wish you nothing but the best luck on this event -- looks like a big win for lots of my AW friends. Bring it on home and post lots of pictures!

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9 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Had 6-12 for Randolph County yesterday: Thought we'd see a tick back west with better qpf as slp would be tight to the coast like the ukmet has been saying for days. A textbook  perfect track for this area is progged. Gonna bump the window up to 8 to 14. See Allan has 8-12. Some spot , most likely to the NE of Asheboro has the potential to squeze out another tenth maybe .2 of qpf so I think a 13 or 14 inch micro lollipop report is possible. Think 9-10 will be the lowest so the 8 gives wiggle room on low end. going off 10-1 ratios but I know we can get into 12-1 latter half of storm. Gonna study up on that latter today. Anyway have fun tracking, hope everyone gets suprised for the better for a change. Nice to have any kind of winter storm but even better when it has potential to be a SECHS.

Really good trends.  I guess today is the day that you want to be in the jackpot zone on the models.  Don't forget about that initial finger of precip predicted to come in around 2-3pm today.  It will give someone another inch or two.  It's usually the Triad proper that gets this, just to our north.  We'll see.

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4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Man, that map you just posted has an incredible minimum between NW piedmont and the mountains.  That leeside dryslot is totally worrying me now.  This is my greatest fear right now:

 

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That storm was an almost entirely different setup than this one... It was a very strong bowling ball type ULL that moved just too far south for areas along the escarpment.. it rained most of the day ahead of the ULL also..

Yep, calc I like this setup for your area.  Should be a good looking radar once it gets cranking tonight.  I don't see a lee side drying scenario for this one...we'll see.  I still like a more conservative 3-6 down this way in CLT area as there could very well be some sleet mixing.  Also, I still view this as more of a 'moderate' level storm in central NC.  It's a good one, but we don't have a closing off and strengthening low at 700mb where the flow gets backed strongly to the NW (similar thoughts at 850mb).  Here are the warmest RGEM panels with respect to Charlotte to Raleigh

33jjyif.gif

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