wxdawg10 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 All things considered, i like where we sit after tonight's runs. i think alot of us in NC will score nicely. will be fun to track this thing and watch it come together tomorrow. Good luck everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Earlier I said I'd go with 2-5 for Charlotte forecast...I would now go to 3-6 after tonight's runs Grit, First of all, THANK YOU for all the PBP throughout and for all the years. You have REALLY come along so well and stayed with it. YOU ARE ON FI-YER! You go man! What are your thoughts on where DEF Banding may show up in NC? Any potential for ThunderSnow? TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 winter p-type line moved NW. increased totals for everybody nw of the line tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 This has been a lot of fun to track thanks to you guys. To me, tracking is 75% of the fun. Now it's time to get some sleep. I've been up or every 12am Euro run this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, WidreMann said: How do the 850s look on the Euro? Per EuroWx Durham/Chapel hill jacks with 12". RDU/Wake is 10-12, with the 9" down to I-95. Let's see how good Euro is come Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Not expecting much from this storm anymore like I was 2 days ago. GFS will bust. Atlanta area is probably 1-3 inches...more on the NE sides....mostly comes in as backend snow like most systems here. Atlanta just cannot get a big one it seem. I thought this would have been the one, but it trended like most systems did. Oh well. Just going to hope my yard is fully white by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, LovingGulfLows said: Not expecting much from this storm anymore like I was 2 days ago. GFS will bust. Atlanta area is probably 1-3 inches...more on the NE sides....mostly comes in as backend snow like most systems here. Atlanta just cannot get a big one it seem. I thought this would have been the one, but it trended like most systems did. Oh well. Just going to hope my yard is fully white by Saturday morning. You don't think 1-3 inches is much of anything ? This is Georgia and we take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: Not expecting much from this storm anymore like I was 2 days ago. GFS will bust. Atlanta area is probably 1-3 inches...more on the NE sides....mostly comes in as backend snow like most systems here. Atlanta just cannot get a big one it seem. I thought this would have been the one, but it trended like most systems did. Oh well. Just going to hope my yard is fully white by Saturday morning. Need the wave and 850 low farther south for you guys...might need it farther south here too...hope it's a positive surprise there tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: You don't think 1-3 inches is much of anything ? This is Georgia and we take what we can get. 1 inch is dissappointing considering the potential with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: Not expecting much from this storm anymore like I was 2 days ago. GFS will bust. Atlanta area is probably 1-3 inches...more on the NE sides....mostly comes in as backend snow like most systems here. Atlanta just cannot get a big one it seem. I thought this would have been the one, but it trended like most systems did. Oh well. Just going to hope my yard is fully white by Saturday morning. Dude. The GFS has not broke. The NAM came into a very similar look of the GFS. The CMC and EURO look similar in nature and the freaking RAP is jacked up on roids. Also, the way you say "Atlanta Area" with this setup that is covering too much area. West side of ATL, probably not as much as East side or maybe even South side of ATL. Depends on IP, ZR or SN and location. Don't get all Debbie Downer on me now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, WidreMann said: How do the 850s look on the Euro? 850 sags well south of you, then it pulls back north just to the SE of Wake county at its warmest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Need the wave and 850 low farther south for you guys...might need it farther south here too...hope it's a positive surprise there tho Charlotte area is in a better position than Atlanta is IMO. I think you'll do alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said: Charlotte area is in a better position than Atlanta is IMO. I think you'll do alright. Well of course, but then again you are in a better location than areas to your west in AL. You can't expect to get as much snow as NC. They get more snow than us 9 times out of 10. It's just the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HWY316wx said: Dude. The GFS has not broke. The NAM came into a very similar look of the GFS. The CMC and EURO look similar in nature and the freaking RAP is jacked up on roids. Also, the way you say "Atlanta Area" with this setup that is covering too much area. West side of ATL, probably not as much as East side or maybe even South side of ATL. Depends on IP, ZR or SN and location. Don't get all Debbie Downer on me now! I think you'll be alright. I'd say you're closer to 3 inches than one...maybe even more. Sadly for me personally, I'm going to be on the wrong side of that rain/sleet/snow transition zone like I am 4 out of 5 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Grit, First of all, THANK YOU for all the PBP throughout and for all the years. You have REALLY come along so well and stayed with it. YOU ARE ON FI-YER! You go man! What are your thoughts on where DEF Banding may show up in NC? Any potential for ThunderSnow? TIA! I really appreciate it Rankin. Personally, I don't think we are looking at T Snow. Not a super dynamic system with a phasing/bombing wave or super strong upglide where it becomes unstable. That's just my guess though. I think central NC looks good right now, but we obviously have to hold off any north ticks....probably best banding would be in the jackpot area there in NNE NC into SE VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 In general, what time does the rain changeover to snow for the GSP area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: I think you'll be alright. I'd say you're closer to 3 inches than one...maybe even more. Sadly for me personally, I'm going to be on the wrong side of that rain/sleet/snow transition zone like I am 4 out of 5 times. I personally think you are going to be ok as well. We may all have mixing issues at first. Personally I am worried about that warm nose to our East, if we don't get eaten by that dude over there, I think you or I hit's some of those convective bands. GFS has not let off the idea for 5 days. It's going to be a quick but good storm in my opinion. I will be honest, if it is a good storm here or there, I am interested to see how long it will hang around given the temp profiles after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, HWY316wx said: I personally think you are going to be ok as well. We may all have mixing issues at first. Personally I am worried about that warm nose to our East, if we don't get eaten by that dude over there, I think you or I hit's some of those convective bands. GFS has not let off the idea for 5 days. It's going to be a quick but good storm in my opinion. I will be honest, if it is a good storm here or there, I am interested to see how long it will hang around given the temp profiles after the fact. I'm really surprised at how cold it's forecast to be while it's snowing. Well down into the 20s, which makes me think that almost all of it will stick and roads will be snow covered if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Backside freezing drizzle for all? 0zeuro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, Snowless in Carrollton said: That just makes no sense to me. According to that it will end as plain rain here even with temps at or below freezing all day on Saturday ? Dendrite snow growth zone is shallow as the storm departs. It happens in most storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said: Dendrite snow growth zone is shallow as the storm departs. It happens in most storms. Your explanation is spot on...msuwx mentioned it the other day...but in real life, I only occasionally see this and if it happens, it's at the end when there really isn't any meaningful precip left. The images are overdoing that in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crshin2me Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What do you guys think about Birmingham Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Crshin2me said: What do you guys think about Birmingham Alabama Idk I've never been there. Heard it's nice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Crshin2me said: What do you guys think about Birmingham Alabama Looks like rain or wintry mix to some light snow at the end....lighter precip amounts out that way...storm blossoms more to your east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan9451 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Looks like rain or wintry mix to some light snow at the end....lighter precip amounts out that way...storm blossoms more to your east. Do totals look more robust south of Birmingham? Looks like a "sweet spot" between Montgomery and Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 In their 2AM update, WPC likes a blend of the 00z GFS and Euro with slightly below avg confidence. Says that the UKMet is to amplified, and NAM is to close to the NE Coast (i.e. too amplified)...we shall see PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH TRACKING TO THE EAST COAST SATURDAY PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BREAKS DOWN FURTHER AND A LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY AND INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TO THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAT THE ECMWF WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY, WITH GOOD OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE UKMET, WHICH BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH AFTER 36 HOURS, AND THE NAM WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bryan9451 said: Do totals look more robust south of Birmingham? Looks like a "sweet spot" between Montgomery and Birmingham. Yes, more precip there, but temperatures don't support wintry except maybe a little at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Yes, more precip there, but temperatures don't support wintry except maybe a little at the end Are you basing that just on the Euro because much of AL is under a Winter Storm Warning ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Well WPC 18" or greater probs are from Yadkin/Surry NC and points north-east that's all I have for the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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