Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Not a chance of that. We will not get one inch of anything frozen on the ground. And this is the best we can do model-wise. As the storm is ongoing, this is the output. lol: Not one inch. Yeah, that would be quite a bust with it calling for 10 to 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, SnowJoMoJo said: IHowdy FallsLake! A buddy turned me on to this forum very recently. I am assuming you are around the lake. Where about? IminHeritage in WF and we are still pingers at 32. I'm on the wake Granville County boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said: GSP says western areas overproducing Lake Toxaway already 5" and that was 2hours ago Pushing 7 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I'm missing the flakes by just a couple of miles at most. Deck starting to turn but all IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Man this snow is really accumulating. Ground and road are covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Have to cut the NAM output in half to get even close to verification in our region. I thought we all knew that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DurhamHeel Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Quote CC line is creeping back up north. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Man this snow is really accumulating. Ground and road are covered. I can't be more than 5 miles from you and we are buckets of IP. Road and other bare surfaces are going white. Haven't seen a flake yet though. 32 with 93% humidity and NE WIND AT 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Love hearing the reports. Hoping the snow will make it down to Cary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, Jet Stream Rider said: Have to cut the NAM output in half to get even close to verification in our region. I thought we all knew that right? Thing is GFS and Euro were also showing a big storm leading up to this. It wasn't just one model. If it turns out being nothing for most folks then all the models busted big time and the NW trend was a lot more than the models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, DurhamHeel said: THIS^^^^^^ Im in North wake county but south of the transition by yards. IP storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Thing is GFS and Euro were also showing a big storm leading up to this. It wasn't just one model. If it turns out being nothing for most folks then all the models busted big time and the NW trend was a lot more than the models showed. NAM got it right, nobody wanted to believe it because it didn't show snow for them. NAM's thermals are mostly right with these types of cyclogenesis, maybe abit heavy on the QPF, but hard to go against the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2.5" here in Blowing Rock so far with rates starting to pick up. HRRR tacks another 8 onto that. Crossing my fingers I can see a foot IMBY for the first time by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: NAM got it right, nobody wanted to believe it because it didn't show snow for them. NAM's thermals are mostly right with these types of cyclogenesis, maybe abit heavy on the GPF, but hard to go against the thermals. Not over yet, but the NAM output was showing 10 to 12 inches for Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 850 line was at the Meck/Union border up until the last 30 minutes or so. It's really retreated. Ugh. Nothing but rain and sleet here! 925's have been fine all night but 850's just won't cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Nice back building of the precip in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Thing is GFS and Euro were also showing a big storm leading up to this. It wasn't just one model. If it turns out being nothing for most folks then all the models busted big time and the NW trend was a lot more than the models showed. I suspect that there will still be significant snow accumulation in the basic pattern depicted in the models, but it might be shifted by 10 -20 miles here and there. And there will likely be big misses, and a very tight gradient between significant accumulations and nothing. Agreed that the models are far from perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Hey guys, just curious. Reading through the thread seems a lot of you are upset. Have things been warmer/farther NW than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Had some sleet....quiet again in CLT. CLT has to be bust zone candidate #1.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 To be fair, the local mets did say over the past day or two that the main snow wouldn't even happen until after midnight... and around 3AM and after. We are only now approaching midnight.. so we will see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 When are 850s supposed to go below freezing in South CLT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hey guys, just curious. Reading through the thread seems a lot of you are upset. Have things been warmer/farther NW than expected? Here's model output from earlier today. Had me around 6-8 inches still. Lucky if I get any snow now. Ground and 925 is fine but 850's are around 1C now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowJoMoJo Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said: I suspect that there will still be significant snow accumulation in the basic pattern depicted in the models, but it might be shifted by 10 -20 miles here and there. And there will likely be big misses, and a very tight gradient between significant accumulations and nothing. Agreed that the models are far from perfect. Line might be setting up along and just south of an axis parallel to NW Wake county line in the Piedmont of NC. A couple of fellow weather watchers in the same zip code are snow (within 5 miles) and are watching big beautiful flakes while I'm listening to pingers beat down the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hey guys, just curious. Reading through the thread seems a lot of you are upset. Have things been warmer/farther NW than expected? I think the main issue is that there has been a ton of rain in areas that didn't expect so much rain. I believe many of us in the RDU area are just barely inside the period when we were supposed to get snow--and now many of us are getting snow. Can't speak to other metros but there seems to be a crazy amount of variation even within the same towns. And there is a brutal "CC" cutoff line. And keep in mind some of the more unhappy posters (even those for whom the main system hasn't landed) are very, uh, prolific, which can skew perception of overall unhappiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Hey guys, just curious. Reading through the thread seems a lot of you are upset. Have things been warmer/farther NW than expected? Somewhat. Mostly it's that Raleigh, Charlotte and Atlanta thought they would be on the right side of the freezing lines and have not been. At least not so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 2.5" here in Blowing Rock so far with rates starting to pick up. HRRR tacks another 8 onto that. Crossing my fingers I can see a foot IMBY for the first time by morning. The increasing intensities across the upstate of SC will help the backside dry slot filter into sw NC fairly soon...I think this limit your area to lighter snow in the early morning hours to prevent a foot. Still a sig. snow nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Ukie still with the low off Charleston at 12 Getting .80 to the I-77 corrider now,1.00 a little east of there. 1.20 further out to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Dunkman said: Somewhat. Mostly it's that Raleigh, Charlotte and Atlanta thought they would be on the right side of the freezing lines and have not been. At least not so far. 5 minutes ago, thess said: I think the main issue is that there has been a ton of rain in areas that didn't expect so much rain. I believe many of us in the RDU area are just barely inside the period when we were supposed to get snow--and now many of us are getting snow. Can't speak to other metros but there seems to be a crazy amount of variation even within the same towns. And there is a brutal "CC" cutoff line. And keep in mind some of the more unhappy posters (even those for whom the main system hasn't landed) are very, uh, prolific, which can skew perception of overall unhappiness. This is true, but in the Atlanta area the freezing rain is starting to make things hazardous with various reports of power outrages and trees coming down. The snow/sleet & freezing rain transition line is bouncing back and forth along the Chattahoochee River in the Atlanta area. There is more warm air aloft in the North Georgia than forecast, thus the prolonged period of freezing rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Wanted to share some cool observations before heading to bed. Drove from Raleigh/Cary west to Pittsboro, NC on hwy 64 then up hwy 87 to Burlington, NC from around 4-630pm (errands in b/t) RDU -> Pittsboro : precip picked up slightly, all rain 4degree temp drop from 41-37 (4-430pm) left Pittsboro @ 5pm and 36 degrees. light rain Alamance/Chatham line: first flakes visible Saxapahaw @ 530: moderate to heavy sleet 34degrees Graham @ 6:10 light sleet/graupel 32degrees I-40 @ hwy 49 around 615pm switch to all snow. by the time I reached home (Burlington/Elon) lull in precip. It was very fun/interesting to drive through the transitions like that, they were noticeably abrupt Precip started back at 9:15pm, all snow since then we're avg. about 1"/hr. no mixing. I had a sense early on this thing would keep backing up NW and felt good about alamance co. So far proving to be true. Fingers crossed for all my RDU and CLT friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 of all places, Cantore decided Raleigh was his spot to be. jesus christ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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