Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 BOOM! 5-6" here. It is very hard to discount how rock solid the GFS has been in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like even down to Cola, this run of the GFS is safely all snow. Probably even south of that to OGB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, griteater said: ha, it has a 12-18 hour period of light snow there in N and C MS....nothing bursts heavy THanks! We are prone to being left out of a lot of things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Cheeznado said: BOOM! 5-6" here. It is very hard to discount how rock solid the GFS has been in Atlanta. Agree, to much Euro hugging around here. Granted I would prefer the Euro as I get scraped but GFS has been rock solid and this run actually ticked a hair weaker....thus no n/w trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 SV snow map has a bullseye in SE NC....just NW of Wilmington up to New Bern area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 That run of the GFS was definitely not a NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Maximum precip right over Burrel2's backyard. Perfectly lined up with the warm bubble at the surface! lol, I would have to think that that much qpf would make quick work of a shallow warm boundary layer when 850's or -5C. This has been an absolutely brutal week for me as I'm suppose to be attending a conference in Savannah this weekend. The biggest day of it is Friday and it will end at 4:30pm so my plan is to haul tail from there and make it to my house by 9pm, and hopefully not get fired for missing Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Snow doesn't extend quite as far north as 6z into VA. Now the GFS has a dusting and the Euro 15". Hard to believe there can be such a large spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12Z GFS 06 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: BOOM! 5-6" here. It is very hard to discount how rock solid the GFS has been in Atlanta. Cheeze, I have tried to limit my posting, but I always appreciate you keeping it real and your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: Perfectly lined up with the warm bubble at the surface! lol, I would have to think that that much qpf would make quick work of a shallow warm boundary layer when 850's or -5C. This has been an absolutely brutal week for me as I'm suppose to be attending a conference in Savannah this weekend. The biggest day of it is Friday and it will end at 4:30pm so my plan is to haul tail from there and make it to my house by 9pm, and hopefully not get fired for missing Saturday. Tell them you got the flu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, BornAgain13 said: That run of the GFS was definitely not a NW trend. The GFS has been nothing but consistent since Monday, and with it tightening up its rain/snow line seems like it is coming to a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: That run of the GFS was definitely not a NW trend. Not per say, the mountains are starting to see increased totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS shows no signs of NW trend. Keeps it plenty cold with the bullseye 100-150 miles to my south. At this point I'd much rather be north of the bullseye than south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS shows zilch for my area and much of the NC/VA border while the EURO is showing 4-6 inches+.. I think somewhere in between will most likely happen but still have more faith in EURO especially after looking at last night EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Definitely was a noticeable uptick in snow here in WNC. That has been the trend the past GFS runs. Now has the southern escarpment down through the Saluda grade up to half a foot now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: BOOM! 5-6" here. It is very hard to discount how rock solid the GFS has been in Atlanta. yeah not to sound like i'm wischasting or anything but it is hard to ignore the fact the gfs has been remarkably consistent now for quite a few runs in a row..This is the 4th run in a row showing 0.75 liquid over ga or sc...although some of that again would be rain initially in the USRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Agree, to much Euro hugging around here. Granted I would prefer the Euro as I get scraped but GFS has been rock solid and this run actually ticked a hair weaker....thus no n/w trend. I've seen the GFS fold too many times. Also, I haven't really looked at snow maps aside from this thread, but the GFS seems to be going it alone as many of the other models have a more amped solution. Not just the Euro. That said, pretty much all of the WFOs I've read over the last day seem to favor the more southern solutions so there are definitely reasons to believe the GFS has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarvelMountain Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Back onboard here north of Lake Lure. Camera at the ready for the coming flakes. Survived the fires. Looking forward to a white winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, packbacker said: 12z GFS v/s 0z Euro....darn close at 12z Sat Same overall look, but definitely sharper wave on Euro....makes a big difference....also, sharper heights there from S Kentucky to New Jersey on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 One thing to keep in mind is that because the GFS runs more often seems more consistent when compared to the Euro. I'm not saying the GFS hasn't been consistent or that its not on to something, just think that the Euro has been relatively consistent as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Dunkman said: I've seen the GFS fold too many times. Also, I haven't really looked at snow maps aside from this thread, but the GFS seems to be going it alone as many of the other models have a more amped solution. Not just the Euro. That said, pretty much all of the WFOs I've read over the last day seem to favor the more southern solutions so there are definitely reasons to believe the GFS has the right idea. The NAM brought their amounts up a bit and EURO brought action back to ATL last night. The lunch run will be interesting. It seems the others are moving towards the GFS IMO. It has been consistent while the others are a little rocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The GFS is still trending a little more NW with snowfall if you look at the past 3 runs. For example the 6z gave GSO around an inch, now the 12Z is closer to 2 inches. Mountains are getting more too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Blend the Euro and the GFS and that's probably close to the likely outcome, widespread 3-6" snow for most of NC, SC and N GA and a band of maybe 6-10" somewhere around central eastern NC up towards the Tidewater of VA...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Same overall look, but definitely sharper wave on Euro....makes a big difference....also, sharper heights there from S Kentucky to New Jersey on Euro Yep...Euro is probably right with the sharper wave and GFS still probably a little weak...but still more worried about a miss to the SE then I am about this running up into southern GA. I sure hope I don't have to eat those words though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 In regards to the warm surface bubble. It is encouraging that the 60hr hi-res NAM is not pronounced with it. Normally the hi-res models pick up on these very well. Also, it seems to have the line of warmer air shifted 30 miles to my west compared to the GFS, (sorry athens,GA), which is good for me. If you look at the wind map it shows a solid north-northeasterly breeze making quick work of it Friday evening. Grant it, the Hi-res NAM is not perfectly aligned with the GFS synoptically so this could obviously change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The CMC looks similar to the EC, good hit from RDU/ORF and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 From the coarse maps looks like GGEM mostly held...though maybe a hair NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 This is the 6th run in a row that has Atlanta at least 4". Biggest change is that earlier we were more on the northern fringe of the heaviest snow, now right in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 UKMET - only can see hr96 right now which is when the storm has passed, but it looks a little more amped than the GFS...but not crazy so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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