CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: dang, that broke down fairly quickly. not a good look. It's been hinted at for over a week now. I think we warm up later next week, and then ride the line. At least it has not gotten worse looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's been hinted at for over a week now. I think we warm up later next week, and then ride the line. At least it has not gotten worse looking. yea, i meant moreso the look for today into this weekend. could of swore when i looked post xmas i thought this would stick around with epo and nao building but as usual nao did a head fake, but the epo crashing down is a bummer. the long range looks zonal with cold bottled up north. we see how it trends over next 5-7 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 what about the rain coming next weds? Lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 59 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: what about the rain coming next weds? Lock it in? Probably another mix'n'mess up our way, with maybe a repeat going into the weekend. Hoping for low qpf to reduce the glop factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 Wouldn't shock me if there's lightning and thunder around the 120 hour or so with that trough translation next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I hope its all rain....can't stand the messy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope its all rain....can't stand the messy crap. i hope we get that pattern in early June.. heh. be talkin' 2 day oscillations between severe events.. but that's actually an all or nothing look. I mean...with the antecedent -EPO, there's no shortage of cold in Canada and it's likely to be pressed up against the SE height wall along where ever the baroclinic axis sets up. if one is 50 miles either side of that axis on a given afternoon...it's 30 someodd F in variance. lately... runs really want that mean to be STJ to BUF or there abouts... but at this range - not banking on it by any stretch. my comments to convection above related to 'if' that depicted evolution (Euro) played according to that particular run...so, some caveat there no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Days and days of 50's and dews late next week. Unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Days and days of 50's and dews late next week. Unbelievable It's all a dream later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's all a dream later next week. Breathe it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Close the shares next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's all a dream later next week. Unless Tips icestorm and low level cold press happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Googlymoogly Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Thoughts? Are we mild until end of month? Sucks but better than last year. Plus after Troomp takes office...who knows where the climate will go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Googlymoogly said: Thoughts? Are we mild until end of month? Sucks but better than last year. Plus after Troomp takes office...who knows where the climate will go! Maybe, everything seems to be indicating February is a better month for snow in coastal areas of the US and Canada. Must be because of the La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2017 Author Share Posted January 7, 2017 Things have significantly changed over the last day ...day and half of operational tempos across the board. Most are likely aware just for the sake of discussion - All models emphasize confluence and attending surface major polar genesis over central/S Canada, destined to move into ideal position to raise several concerns: For one, the snow pack is pervasive as this feature evolves and it will help modulate the surface critical thickness' that much colder. Secondly, the set up encourages deeper layer easterly flow into the MA and into the CAD wall along and E of the App., which is inherently dangerous; it hugely amplifies the baroclinicity in that region. It would not take a vort max nearly with the strength of that which was necessary to produce today's event, to produce an even more aggressive impact system in that vicinity, in that over all set up. A circumstance that cannot be removed from probability from this far out in time. Thirdly, even in the absence of more cyclogenesis...there is an overrunning implied through the entire D6.5 through D10 period of time. However that takes form remains to be seen. The GGEM offers up a straight up ice storm ...2.5 day style. However, the warm thaw that panicked the Tweetisphere has since been relegated to S of central Jersey to eastern OH. All the GEFs carry similar polar high generation but ...as usual with high pressure node at this sort of time lead/range, it's a wobbling blob comparing member to member. Either way, the existance/translation of that feature is reasonable 50% likelihood and any time high pressure situates N with east wind coming into the TV/OV region there's usually trouble. It may warm briefly mid week as that return flow around the early period retreating high moves off, but the actual warmth in that area of the synoptic evolution is not warm per say - it's more like neutral mild for this time of year... By the time the 850 mb 0C isotherm make it to roughly BUF-BOS... the front careens off shore. Then we're in the high's domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Things have significantly changed over the last day ...day and half of operational tempos across the board. Most are likely aware just for the sake of discussion - All models emphasize confluence and attending surface major polar genesis over central/S Canada, destined to move into ideal position to raise several concerns: For one, the snow pack is pervasive as this feature evolves and it will help modulate the surface critical thickness' that much colder. Secondly, the set up encourages deeper layer easterly flow into the MA and into the CAD wall along and E of the App., which is inherently dangerous; it hugely amplifies the baroclinicity in that region. It would not take a vort max nearly with the strength of that which was necessary to produce today's event, to produce an even more aggressive impact system in that vicinity, in that over all set up. A circumstance that cannot be removed from probability from this far out in time. Thirdly, even in the absence of more cyclogenesis...there is an overrunning implied through the entire D6.5 through D10 period of time. However that takes form remains to be seen. The GGEM offers up a straight up ice storm ...2.5 day style. However, the warm thaw that panicked the Tweetisphere has since been relegated to S of central Jersey to eastern OH. All the GEFs carry similar polar high generation but ...as usual with high pressure node at this sort of time lead/range, it's a wobbling blob comparing member to member. Either way, the existance/translation of that feature is reasonable 50% likelihood and any time high pressure situates N with east wind coming into the TV/OV region there's usually trouble. It may warm briefly mid week as that return flow around the early period retreating high moves off, but the actual warmth in that area of the synoptic evolution is not warm per say - it's more like neutral mild for this time of year... By the time the 850 mb 0C isotherm make it to roughly BUF-BOS... the front careens off shore. Then we're in the high's domain. Euro looks much much better today. We may keep some pack..and there's a wintry event next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 One thing is clear, January is not going to bring any redemption to BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 11-15 looks like close the shades time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: 11-15 looks like close the shades time. We may escape ok . Better look today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We may escape ok . Better look today We watch a possible storm for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We watch a possible storm for next weekend Interesting set up with that high up to the north. It's a SSH. Sneaky Scooter High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Taking a trip up to Camden, ME next weekend with the gf for a lil skiing and romance. Wondering what I should expect weatherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 6"/hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Long range sucks- no sugar coating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 I thought the long range was looking half decent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Productive snow squalls for some today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I thought the long range was looking half decent? Possible storm next weekend but then mild after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 16 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Interesting set up with that high up to the north. It's a SSH. Sneaky Scooter High Looks great for PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2017 Author Share Posted January 8, 2017 I'm not as confident in the extended. As recently history has shown the extended has not been very reliable. Yes, ...that is normally true most of the time wrt any extended range, anyway. However, take next weekend's big high and inherently dangerous set up as the example: that was not really very well designed as of three days ago and only since has come into focus. That, right there, underlines how useful it is to color an extended (particularly in a pattern that is also changing) one way or the other. Which the pattern is slated to enter a mode change at that time... EPO has booster rockets under the index, as does the PNA. I think the more objective assumption is that will all change the landscape more than just a little. Last time I checked ... +PNA is another way to transport cold S over N/A ... may simply be a matter of waiting for the physical presentation in the models to emerge. I find it just as likely that whatever happens after next weekend, it ends up more favorable for winter enthusiasts, as it may not. One thing to keep in mind.... PNA phase changes often herald in with Archembault -type events... which isn't even in the models yet if that is going to happen, and it would be that week after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not as confident in the extended. As recently history has shown the extended has not been very reliable. Yes, ...that is normally true most of the time wrt any extended range, anyway. However, take next weekend's big high and inherently dangerous set up as the example: that was not really very well designed as of three days ago and only since has come into focus. That, right there, underlines how useful it is to color an extended (particularly in a pattern that is also changing) one way or the other. Which the pattern is slated to enter a mode change at that time... EPO has booster rockets under the index, as does the PNA. I think the more objective assumption is that will all change the landscape more than just a little. Last time I checked ... +PNA is another way to transport cold S over N/A ... may simply be a matter of waiting for the physical presentation in the models to emerge. I find it just as likely that whatever happens after next weekend, it ends up more favorable for winter enthusiasts, as it may not. One thing to keep in mind.... PNA phase changes often herald in with Archembault -type events... which isn't even in the models yet if that is going to happen, and it would be that week after... Tip, Very well said, however, I am one who does look at ext.forecast, and when I don't see what i want, I get pissed off(lol) , I'm trying to take day by day...on another note, you would be a great teacher/professor, you always give details in just about everything you post, I don't understand a lot of it, sometime i google to get the right meaning etc. good job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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