January, the 2nd Meteorological winter month...

[Typhoon Tip]

It is the 28th of December and the models have (apparently) mocked us with two-days of material ample to justify hope, before deliberately pulling the plug ... (err, it seems -)

So, in equal crazy-crank-talk defiance, lets pull the plug on December and judge it as ...well I guess a 'partial' success story for 2016. Is that fair and real? Will wait on final total but for now, 8" here in NW Middlesex CO.  (I am not sure where that stands vs averages for the month)

Speaking to winter enthusiasts only, the GEFs teleconnectors heading into the first 10 days indicate a sort of split between cautiously optimistic, and unfortunate persistence. 

What is interesting is that depending on the agency used .. you get a different sort of impression on matters. 

The CDC has a powerful EPO extending to some -2 standard deviation (est) just looking at the bar-graph.  The NAO from that same source is also not a huge disappointment in that it's neutralizing(negative) its semi-persistent positive bias over recent weeks.   You can see this here:

I like the -EPO this time because the WPO is also negative, and those two are positively correlated atmospheric teleconnectors; seeing as both are moving in concert toward a negative signal, that may lend some confidence. The northern arc of the Pacific circulation medium is entering a phase that favors a winter like patterns over N/A.

However, the PNA is not on the same page! Christ... it's like it's pushing theoretical bounds of negativeness wow.  That's fascinating for a nerd ... because, the longer term correlation of the PNA wrt to the EPO is a negative one; which means, although both the WPO and EPO are shaking hands (and thus should carry some weight), the PNA should not be negative - yet as you can clearly see above it is... unrelentingly so. 

I'm not sure how to reconcile all that... one offers a cold stormy signal transmitted down stream across N/A, the other could not be more diametrically opposed.  Frankly, I almost envision just a continuation of an enhanced gradient everywhere, as one signal seems to be rooted in this band of positive subtropical heights that can seem to recess that's going on everywhere around the hemisphere, while the other imparts cold air masses into Canada.  The end result is a squeeze fest...

I am curious what the EPS version of these mass-fields indicate. 

On the other hand ... the CPC, hides any optimism from public view (haha).  Seriously, they don't post the WPO and EPO means for whatever reason, and so... the unwitting passer-by the clicks on the teleconnectors gets served a -PNA/iffy NAO/Useless AO schit cake... with to mention, horrible non-existent MJO, along with an absolute nothing going on in the stratosphere frosting.

In an case, the dailies in the first week (~ next Tue/Wed) offer a subtle signal for some form of icing/mix as a happenstance (albeit rare in this pattern) high pressure is lagging N of Maine and the mid level flow veers up underneath - maybe even like that snow event three weeks ago?

 

 

[CoastalWx]

I see this as a continuation of December in a way...just one month deeper. Seems like Bering Sea/-EPO ridging through at least first 10 days with some SE ridge....but perhaps...perhaps some -NAO help. Right now, I'm not buying a -NAO until I see the whites of its eyes. That has been a big voodoo feature on models. Overall I expect better chances of snow in SNE and not because it's January.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see this as a continuation of December in a way...just one month deeper. Seems like Bering Sea/-EPO ridging through at least first 10 days with some SE ridge....but perhaps...perhaps some -NAO help. Right now, I'm not buying a -NAO until I see the whites of its eyes. That has been a big voodoo feature on models. Overall I expect better chances of snow in SNE and not because it's January.

mmm.

how does the EPS look ? 

btw, i agree with your assessment...mainly because this -WPO/-EPO, whether it sits in correlation agreement with the PNA or not is an even louder signal than the one that preceded the arctic outbreak a couple week ago.  That one had only a four or five day -EPO spike leading - so ...if seasonal trend has any say. 

also, in Feb 2015, the EPO and PNA were out of correlation sync but the EPO ended up dominant for forcing our temp anomalies. not saying this is 2015 by any stretch, but... we know that the EPO is a primary loader for cold into N/A so given to our latitude... i'm willing to parlay that favorable. 

Of course, that is all predicated on the assumption that the -EPO really happens -

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm.

how does the EPS look ? 

btw, i agree with your assessment...mainly because this -WPO/-EPO, whether it sits in correlation agreement with the PNA or not is an even louder signal than the one that preceded the arctic outbreak a couple week ago.  That one had only a four or five day -EPO spike leading - so ...if seasonal trend has any say. 

also, in Feb 2015, the EPO and PNA were out of correlation sync but the EPO ended up dominant for forcing our temp anomalies. not saying this is 2015 by any stretch, but... we know that the EPO is a primary loader for cold into N/A so given to our latitude... i'm willing to parlay that favorable. 

Of course, that is all predicated on the assumption that the -EPO really happens -

And no sooner than I poo poo the -NAO, the EPS tries to pop one lol. It's a good look. Keeps Bering sea/ AK ridging with a Greenland ridge.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

nice post Tip.

I like the look on the ens and not because of a particular run but moreso because when the long range gets closer it doesnt fizzle. sure it varies but nothing that is alarming when you step away from each run and expand your view over several runs. and as each day goes by the newly added end of the run keeps looking pretty decent. not sure if I explained that correctly but I have been working hard in the lab with a pen and a pad getting my skills up. it makes sense in my head, just dont know all the met terms to cohesively word it on my virtual keyboard.

The poleward ridging on both sides of NA is encouraging obv and even when it breaks down it seems to reload, or at least not be replaced by worrying troughs for too long. I also like the pimple squeeze the ridging does to the PV into Canada. It doesnt get trapped behind the skin with nothing to force it out. Sure you can see cutters as occassionally the troughs digs too far west but knowing that, one shouldnt get worked up when it happens. Loose a battle here and there to win the war.

[ORH_wxman]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And no sooner than I poo poo the -NAO, the EPS tries to pop one lol. It's a good look. Keeps Bering sea/ AK ridging with a Greenland ridge.

Nice little reload at the end too in the Bering Sea. January could provide many an opportunity.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

i did not check todays eps...yes please. 

[Typhoon Tip]

41 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

nice post Tip.

I like the look on the ens and not because of a particular run but moreso because when the long range gets closer it doesnt fizzle. sure it varies but nothing that is alarming when you step away from each run and expand your view over several runs. and as each day goes by the newly added end of the run keeps looking pretty decent. not sure if I explained that correctly but I have been working hard in the lab with a pen and a pad getting my skills up. it makes sense in my head, just dont know all the met terms to cohesively word it on my virtual keyboard.

The poleward ridging on both sides of NA is encouraging obv and even when it breaks down it seems to reload, or at least not be replaced by worrying troughs for too long. I also like the pimple squeeze the ridging does to the PV into Canada. It doesnt get trapped behind the skin with nothing to force it out. Sure you can see cutters as occassionally the troughs digs too far west but knowing that, one shouldnt get worked up when it happens. Loose a battle here and there to win the war.

it's not a terrible look, yeah.. 

I'm still concerned about the tendency for higher heights to push up from the subtropics across old Mexico ...through the Gulf and Atlantic at those deeper latitudes... Pacific for that matter, too.  That seems to be a separate sort of plaguing anomaly going on this winter. It's different than "SE ridge" ... this? it's a hemispheric thing.  I've probably mentioned in ad nauseam - I know. 

We'll have to see how things align out in time, but, different now compared to what we were looking at two weeks ago: at least half the effective teleconnectors are squarely in cold and stormy favor - that's a helluva lot better than two weeks ago when NO teleconnectors looked cold and stormy. That's the take away for now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's not a terrible look, yeah.. 

I'm still concerned about the tendency for higher heights to push up from the subtropics across old Mexico ...through the Gulf and Atlantic at those deeper latitudes... Pacific for that matter, too.  That seems to be a separate sort of plaguing anomaly going on this winter. It's different than "SE ridge" ... this? it's a hemispheric thing.  I've probably mentioned in ad nauseam - I know. 

We'll have to see how things align out in time, but, different now compared to what we were looking at two weeks ago: at least half the effective teleconnectors are squarely in cold and stormy favor - that's a helluva lot better than two weeks ago when NO teleconnectors looked cold and stormy. That's the take away for now.

hmmm... i guess MX ridge can block the flow from tropics and we become dependent too much on the northern stream? id rather have a bit of a se ridge then. ha. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

hmmm... i guess MX ridge can block the flow from tropics and we become dependent too much on the northern stream? id rather have a bit of a se ridge then. ha. 

Partly so.. .

it's very hard to describe the complexities of why what's been going on is "too much gradient" ... it's best just to call it shear and be done with it. 

the (somewhat) longer version is that when the winds are howling at nearly 100 kts everywhere, already, the individual short waves get "lost" in the flow ...absorbed by an already whirling maelstrom at the planetary scales. 

we have to understand, storms develop on the noses of these smaller scaled amplitudes. 

every so once in a blue moon ... this does integrate to larger scales and you get a 'super storm 1993' or 'Cleveland super bomb' type of ordeal.  but, mostly... the short waves typically have between 70 and 110 kts of embedded wind maximum(s), and as those maxes slice into a region, the flow around them is weaker and therefore, that same surrounding air mass moves toward the jet max because the faster passing air creates a mid altitude 'void'...

that whole restoring process is critical in storm development, because it transports warm and cold air. when the wind is already howling, these s/w can't do all that...

the end result, the chart looks threatening but not much really happens...  well, it happens in the upper mid west because all this means that it's pushing it all to higher latitudes. 

[512high]

9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It is the 28th of December and the models have (apparently) mocked us with two-days of material ample to justify hope, before deliberately pulling the plug ... (err, it seems -)

So, in equal crazy-crank-talk defiance, lets pull the plug on December and judge it as ...well I guess a 'partial' success story for 2016. Is that fair and real? Will wait on final total but for now, 8" here in NW Middlesex CO.  (I am not sure where that stands vs averages for the month)

Speaking to winter enthusiasts only, the GEFs teleconnectors heading into the first 10 days indicate a sort of split between cautiously optimistic, and unfortunate persistence. 

What is interesting is that depending on the agency used .. you get a different sort of impression on matters. 

The CDC has a powerful EPO extending to some -2 standard deviation (est) just looking at the bar-graph.  The NAO from that same source is also not a huge disappointment in that it's neutralizing(negative) its semi-persistent positive bias over recent weeks.   You can see this here:

I like the -EPO this time because the WPO is also negative, and those two are positively correlated atmospheric teleconnectors; seeing as both are moving in concert toward a negative signal, that may lend some confidence. The northern arc of the Pacific circulation medium is entering a phase that favors a winter like patterns over N/A.

However, the PNA is not on the same page! Christ... it's like it's pushing theoretical bounds of negativeness wow.  That's fascinating for a nerd ... because, the longer term correlation of the PNA wrt to the EPO is a negative one; which means, although both the WPO and EPO are shaking hands (and thus should carry some weight), the PNA should not be negative - yet as you can clearly see above it is... unrelentingly so. 

I'm not sure how to reconcile all that... one offers a cold stormy signal transmitted down stream across N/A, the other could not be more diametrically opposed.  Frankly, I almost envision just a continuation of an enhanced gradient everywhere, as one signal seems to be rooted in this band of positive subtropical heights that can seem to recess that's going on everywhere around the hemisphere, while the other imparts cold air masses into Canada.  The end result is a squeeze fest...

I am curious what the EPS version of these mass-fields indicate. 

On the other hand ... the CPC, hides any optimism from public view (haha).  Seriously, they don't post the WPO and EPO means for whatever reason, and so... the unwitting passer-by the clicks on the teleconnectors gets served a -PNA/iffy NAO/Useless AO schit cake... with to mention, horrible non-existent MJO, along with an absolute nothing going on in the stratosphere frosting.

In an case, the dailies in the first week (~ next Tue/Wed) offer a subtle signal for some form of icing/mix as a happenstance (albeit rare in this pattern) high pressure is lagging N of Maine and the mid level flow veers up underneath - maybe even like that snow event three weeks ago?

 

 

Tip, very well written, some of it over my head, some i can grasp. With that said, is there a time frame to start to see changes? example January 6th on? And do you have a feeling that it could trend into February or is that i way out to talk about...

[weathafella]

512-I think most agree that once past 1/5 it's more widespread wintry.

[512high]

33 minutes ago, weathafella said:

512-I think most agree that once past 1/5 it's more widespread wintry.

Thank you weatherfella, i read that somewhere ,just hoping for cold temps and greater snow chances...

[leo1000]

51 minutes ago, 512high said:

Thank you weatherfella, i read that somewhere ,just hoping for cold temps and greater snow chances...

I am hearing from mets on Twitter that this cold pattern that is coming will be transient. As the 15 day Euro Ensembles appear to show now. 

 

 

 

[Hazey]

I am hearing from mets on Twitter that this cold pattern that is coming will be transient. As the 15 day Euro Ensembles appear to show now. 

 

   

Who said it was going to last all winter?? It's a window of time where things look good for snow....nothing more. Relax and have another rum and eggnog.

[leo1000]

Just now, Hazey said:

Who said it was going to last all winter?? It's a window of time where things look good for snow....nothing more. Relax and have another rum and eggnog.

A very very short window according to how things are looking. Going quickly back to this same old pattern. Like I said we need a sustained pattern. If we do get a good Negative NAO, negative EPO, negative WPO we should be able to sustained a cold snowy pattern. 

[Hazey]

A very very short window according to how things are looking. Going quickly back to this same old pattern. Like I said we need a sustained pattern. If we do get a good Negative NAO, negative EPO, negative WPO we should be able to sustained a cold snowy pattern. 

It ain't that kind of winter. We take what we get. Don't worry so far down the road. If you keep looking for the forest, you'll miss the trees.

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

And no sooner than I poo poo the -NAO, the EPS tries to pop one lol. It's a good look. Keeps Bering sea/ AK ridging with a Greenland ridge.

Today's EPS and GEFS were great at Day 10...huge -EPO and a significant NAO block curling west into northern Greenland. If that feature can continue to retrograde west, the low heights in the Northern Tier should belly underneath into a closed low in the Southeast/TN Valley/MS Valley, giving us a good shot at a MECS/KU.

Here they are:

[weathafella]

34 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

I am hearing from mets on Twitter that this cold pattern that is coming will be transient. As the 15 day Euro Ensembles appear to show now. 

 

 

 

The euro ensembles most assuredly didn't show that for the northern tier!

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The euro ensembles most assuredly didn't show that for the northern tier!

Yeah it was not transient on the EPS today...maybe beyond their timeframe it would break down, but that is speculative.

[nzucker]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it was not transient on the EPS today...maybe beyond their timeframe it would break down, but that is speculative.

Today's look was better with a more permanent EPO ridge and higher heights in the NAO region.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Partly so.. .

it's very hard to describe the complexities of why what's been going on is "too much gradient" ... it's best just to call it shear and be done with it. 

the (somewhat) longer version is that when the winds are howling at nearly 100 kts everywhere, already, the individual short waves get "lost" in the flow ...absorbed by an already whirling maelstrom at the planetary scales. 

we have to understand, storms develop on the noses of these smaller scaled amplitudes. 

every so once in a blue moon ... this does integrate to larger scales and you get a 'super storm 1993' or 'Cleveland super bomb' type of ordeal.  but, mostly... the short waves typically have between 70 and 110 kts of embedded wind maximum(s), and as those maxes slice into a region, the flow around them is weaker and therefore, that same surrounding air mass moves toward the jet max because the faster passing air creates a mid altitude 'void'...

that whole restoring process is critical in storm development, because it transports warm and cold air. when the wind is already howling, these s/w can't do all that...

the end result, the chart looks threatening but not much really happens...  well, it happens in the upper mid west because all this means that it's pushing it all to higher latitudes. 

Very cool, I get it. one would have to think the "shear" gets shoved towards the equator a bit eventually. I know you been on this for quite some time so you probably know what mechanism is needed to do so. Its been like this since last winter. And I mean, crap, it is not like we have had many unrestricted short waves since...oh, 2010  So i guess it was bound to swing the other way and level out. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

EURO is sustained cold from Day 8-10 with a monster low developing day 10.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

EURO is sustained cold from Day 8-10 with a monster low developing day 10.

Lol...you made up the part about monster low unless 1000 mb brushing us as it rolls we'll SEE cold units...lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Very cool, I get it. one would have to think the "shear" gets shoved towards the equator a bit eventually. I know you been on this for quite some time so you probably know what mechanism is needed to do so. Its been like this since last winter. And I mean, crap, it is not like we have had many unrestricted short waves since...oh, 2010  So i guess it was bound to swing the other way and level out. 

Perhaps ... perhaps not. 

It has to do with the Global heat budget -- how proficiently do/does the hot regions dump their surplus into the cold regions: that is really what it's all about. 

-- The spin of the Earth imparts differential Coriolis forcing that deflects wind direction with latitude, N and S of the equator to the respective poles.

-- Land and Ocean have very different absorption and storage capacity of heat.

-- The angle of the sun upon the Earth vacillates a total of 47 deg of latitude between the winter and summer Solstice'

-- Fluid mechanics are additionally perturbed by topographical features that as we know are highly variant across the surface of the planet

There other minoring parametrics in play, but those four basic once existing over time is what ultimately drives weather. Anyway, that's the primer.

Change the nature of any on of those parameters, ...it is natural/logical to presume it changes the nature of weather.  Duh. However, with GW, and last year's super Nino, ..and the warmest N. Polar arctic domain ever recorded for a Sept - Nov ... the list goes on, the system is inherently in a 'perturbed' state - more so than usual is my suspicion.

Now I'm not sure how long it lasts, ...but there are key flags flapping in the wind that this is a bit uncharted.  I almost visualize that band around the subtropical girdle of the N. Hemisphere not ever receding fulling enough to allow the flow relaxation to the point where your "shear gets shoved south" thing can take over.  It may... but, I tell you what - - if it does persist, the hemisphere as a whole my experience an exceptional early spring.  When the solar dimming (negative flux) in insolation reverses ... what's to stop it? 

hm. interesting

[CoastalWx]

Could be some overrunning coming up given that look on ensembles. We Leon?

[MJO812]

We track the early January storn

[Hazey]

The 5th and beyond has been my favoured period for a while now. Still looking good. Hope it produces for the folks who haven't had too much winter yet.

[Great Snow 1717]

12 hours ago, Hazey said:

The 5th and beyond has been my favoured period for a while now. Still looking good. Hope it produces for the folks who haven't had too much winter yet.

By the time the 5th rolls around we will basically be a week shy of the mid point of winter. Hopefully by then the pattern will be looking more favorable but I would not be the least bit surprised if it doesn't.

[Googlymoogly]

So things look pretty good, no?