January, the 2nd Meteorological winter month...

[Spanks45]

definitely starting to have a different look 11-15 days from now....

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's insane-close to 2 years...

 Go ask Snow weenies in the Albany area how the past few winters have been ...

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the southern stream getting going will probably make a marginal event more possible with an ugly airmass than what we've seen recently in the fast flow SE Ridge pattern.

 

The SE ridge is gonna go bye-bye for what looks like a long time once we get past the next 10 days. It's a pretty weird evolution to this winter, because it looks more like El Nino climo later this month and into February than La Nina...but that is not a bad thing.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the southern stream getting going will probably make a marginal event more possible with an ugly airmass than what we've seen recently in the fast flow SE Ridge pattern.

 

The SE ridge is gonna go bye-bye for what looks like a long time once we get past the next 10 days. It's a pretty weird evolution to this winter, because it looks more like El Nino climo later this month and into February than La Nina...but that is not a bad thing.

Bingo ... that's aired (pun intended...) apparent from the get go actually ... yeah. 

I mean...look at Cali - woof.  Pineaple Express' are pretty much warm enso attributed in almost all theoretical research I've seen...  

That said....technically, this is a weaker sauced Nina... I'm almost wondering: if we think about it in relative terms, the strength of this present anomaly distribution may not be sufficient to off-set the 'hang-over' (as it is caused) by the uber warmth of just 6 to 9 months ago.  It may be that this winter was destined to be back-loaded all along.  Just need the time to get the regime change memo out to all departments ...teleconnectors air and sea...  

either way, agreed -  

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the southern stream getting going will probably make a marginal event more possible with an ugly airmass than what we've seen recently in the fast flow SE Ridge pattern.

Yeah that would be much better to have more southern stream energy.  Even in a marginal airmass these northern stream lows seem to saturate the mid-levels with crap temperatures...be better to go with a southern stream low that can get isothermal without flooding mid-level warmth with every system.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

also not sure if this is covered... but, some of this +PNA may get a sync up, constructive wave interference boost by a favorably time MJO (hypothetical but worthy of discussion..)... 

I've been checking and the wave coherence has gradually gotten stronger in the Wheeler and now NCEPs is on-board..

"...Dynamical model forecasts of the RMM index generally maintain a weak MJO signal during week-1. Dynamical model guidance indicates a strengthening MJO signal during week-2 (e.g. JMAN in phase 8, GEFS in phase 1). "

It's a chicken an egg index for me in some ways... It's like if the surrounding hemisphere is drilling PNA negative... the MJO may register as incoherent, UNLESS it is strengthening in the phase 3-6 side of the chart.  ...and vice versa.  It's more of a supporting cast member in that regard.  Since the PNA is attempting to rise and perhaps flip modes entirely during the next 10 days, the MJO coming out of incoherence may simply be a factor of it no longer being negatively interfered.  

Short of the long... maybe it gives the pattern a boost.  Should note, Phase 1 and 2 MJO correlations are negative for temperature the eastern U.S. 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

  It may be that this winter was destined to be back-loaded all along.  

 

Not surprising as every winter for the past 4-5 years seems to be more heavily weighted to the second half of winter...at least for SNE environs.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not surprising as every winter for the past 4-5 years seems to be more heavily weighted to the second half of winter...at least for SNE environs.

And the funny thing was we had experienced a bunch of front loaded winters before that ('07-'08, '08-'09, '09-'10...at least for NE, '10-'11...more for SNE, etc.). But we were "due" for a bunch of big Februarys....we hadn't had blockbuster Februarys really since probably the early 2000s...you could throw in 2007 but snow-wise it wasn't that great for a lot of SNE...interior was ok.

But now we've had big Februarys in 4 consecutive winters...last year was the stingiest of the 4 as 20.6" for ORH after they had managed 3 consecutive 40"+ Februarys from 2013-2015.

It's always kind of funny how the stuff ends up evening out. You don't know when it's going to happen, but eventually it does. Like, it "seemed" impossible for a while to get a good Feb/Mar. You didn't think it would happen...until it does., and the floodgates opened. Recently, it has seemed tougher to get a good December, though this year wasn't bad in SNE (and great up in your hood).

 

 

Regardless, if we do go into a more Nina-esque pattern, then this winter will have a good chance to continue the string of prolific Februarys.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yes JSPIN it is pretty fantastic. I did cores every Monday in 15, highest core I had was 8.92 which is outrageous for my bikini locale.

Highest core I had that good-though-frustrating year was 7.16", but got up to 11.25" in April 2014.  Can't find records of cores I took in 2008, but recall 13"+ max.

[leo1000]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the southern stream getting going will probably make a marginal event more possible with an ugly airmass than what we've seen recently in the fast flow SE Ridge pattern.

 

The SE ridge is gonna go bye-bye for what looks like a long time once we get past the next 10 days. It's a pretty weird evolution to this winter, because it looks more like El Nino climo later this month and into February than La Nina...but that is not a bad thing.

Wait isn't that a bad thing for the SE ridge to go bye bye?. As some have said it's needed for coastal storms. 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

Wait isn't that a bad thing for the SE ridge to go bye bye?. As some have said it's needed for coastal storms. 

No, it helps bring overrunning events north...but it's actually an inhibitor for deepening troughs along the coast.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Not surprising as every winter for the past 4-5 years seems to be more heavily weighted to the second half of winter...at least for SNE environs.

Depends on location, of course.  In 18 full winters here, snowfall thru Jan. 31 has averaged 49.8% of season total, about as even a split as one could ask for.  2011-12 and 14-15 were significantly front-loaded, 12-13 and 13-14 back-loaded, and last "winter" was 49/51 (percent - inches were 23.5/24.7.)  Most extreme splits came in consecutive winters, 45.0/7.8 in 05-06 and 19.2/76.2 the next year, fueled by 37.2" in April. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

We are going to start seeing larger scale events imho. The caveat being that there will be less cold available.

Higher stakes.

These are changes that I'll welcome...less sheared out Ginx specials, and CJs.

Of course, I may see some rain, but that is the risk.

[CoastalWx]

LOL, Ray's disdain is palpable. Hopefully large events like Feb and Dec 2003.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, Ray's disdain is palpable. Hopefully large events like Feb and Dec 2003.

Feb and Mar 01

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, Ray's disdain is palpable. Hopefully large events like Feb and Dec 2003.

LOL Jerk

[SouthCoastMA]

Hopefully another Feb '99 to trigger some melts

[Damage In Tolland]

Nickels and dimes.. wires to wires . We 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Feb and Mar 01

Its still very early...but I'm not going to lie. It was a bit frustrating to be resigned to an interior year, then have the reprieve focus on the CJ zones, followed up by the attack of the lawn mowers.

That being said, watch February go epic again-

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nickels and dimes.. wires to wires . We 

I vehemently disagree...I think that period is done.

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, Ray's disdain is palpable. Hopefully large events like Feb and Dec 2003.

Dec 2003 in a heart beat... 2 18"+ events at BTV and a 10" paste thundersnow event.  

Lets wake that up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Dec 2003 in a heart beat... 2 18"+ events at BTV and a 10" paste thundersnow event.  

Lets wake that up.

That and PD II were the largest CJs on record... they were massive large scale events, but I got porked to an immense degree.

That being said, I'd take my chances with either again.

I'd like to see something tracking a bit closer, though.

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd like to see something tracking a bit closer, though.

You and me both dude haha.

Been looking for that for 5 years it seems.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

Well.. I must say, I have lost count of the number of times since October that the operational GFS run (all of them actually) did this.  

The GEFs mass field derivatives ( PNA in this case...) are scheduled to do one thing; yet, not only do the operational versions vehemently depict solutions that that appear to oppose (insinuating a waiting game if/when they do), the next night ...instead of ever modulating a little so as to at least acknowledge the ensemble mean, they get even MORE annoyingly polarized to said ensemble mean.  

Granted, I'm not basing that teleconnector vs operational model frustration on the Euro vs EPS...(or GGEM vs that ensemble system..).  People tend to throw EPS "looks" back at me; I still don't know if there is an actually number set product, for the respective domain spaces, provided by the ECMWF ( like,   NAO: -1.2    ...etc) organization.

They probably do, but like everything else out of that office they think it's good enough to charge money... Not sure what I'd be paying for, though - some sense of appeasement for deeper rooted annoyance over the models not depicting a big storm ...?  In terms of useful practical threat assessment, there doesn't seem to be much use to me in knowing what the EPS vs the GEFs PNA numbers are ... although, it may appease the intellectual curiosity of the present evolution. 

Blah blah, the point was going to be, the PNA is every more impressively changing modes in both the CDC and CPC, yet the operational GFS ...along with however useful it could be to see it in the other operational model types, simply refuse to modulate their appeals toward what the GEFs is selling. 

Much of my "wait - don't panic just yet" advice as of late was based upon assessing how the pattern may or may not be responding to the the PNA rise.. But seeing it - if anything - go the wrong way ...I admit, it does start trying patience a little bit.  

Frankly, ...I think these are exotic times... We seem to be handling like three hugely disparate signals, concurrently ... and the means are tough to establish as these forces vie in time and cause massive modulations on the pattern from two week to two week interval.  In one respect, we have a clear and coherent El Nino "Pineapple Express" happening in Califonria about 6 to 9 months too late (which is a mystery in its own rite.  We have the multi-decadal,    -EPO seemingly well under way ... Lastly, somewhere in all this we should see a neutral -negative Nina correlation emerge... It seems like every other cycle favors a different one of these three in the general look.

I think the basic conclusion of uncertainty persists... but, somewhere in that uncertainty there also seems to be a residue to NOT do what anyone wants. Ha!

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

This is from Michael Clark's feed.  The guy provides a trove of good information...worth following IMO.  I love that February 78 analog:

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nickels and dimes.. wires to wires . We 

We haven't been buried in almost two years. We're overdue. I demand a HECS!

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This is from Michael Clark's feed.  The guy provides a trove of good information...worth following IMO.  I love that February 78 analog:

 

Pattern definitely looks like it is going to turn for the better. But it could take a bit of time...guidance tends to rush these things. I'd probably be aiming for early February when things really get going again from a longwave standpoint.

 

Of course, that does not mean we can't get a good snow event before then. If there's a month to get a snow event in a crappy pattern, it's January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern definitely looks like it is going to turn for the better. But it could take a bit of time...guidance tends to rush these things. I'd probably be aiming for early February when things really get going again from a longwave standpoint.

 

Of course, that does not mean we can't get a good snow event before then. If there's a month to get a snow event in a crappy pattern, it's January.

Notable that that Feb '78 analog is later in the month, too.....which was a cold/dry stretch.

[CoastalWx]

Also worth noting the long range models may not show a nina-like pattern enough. IOW, (just throwing it out there because I remember the weeklies did this in Dec)..it wouldn't shock me if that goes from a Nino like +PNA to a dateline or AK ridge in future runs. Of course the past does not predict the future..but just saying. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like my outlook timeline was good through early Jan....but will be slow, thereafter....thought latter Jan and Feb would break badly after a good early Jan stretch, then NAO assist in March.

Oh well....at least it look like its coming.