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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017


buckeyefan1
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1 minute ago, frazdaddy said:

Sadly I think you will be right.

We're still what, 5-6 days out?  I'd rather not see the speed increase by 6 hours each run.  It'll be too warm.  We have a variety of energy in the flow, so no model has much of a handle on this yet.  The pieces are on the board, but we still don't know very much at this point other than at least we're in the game.  Given the amount of time till zero hour, I'm ok with where things stand.  In some ways, it's actually good to see a solution that shows a big storm, given all the suppressed looks we're seeing.  It shows the volatility of the pattern and serves as a marker to let us know that we're still in the game.

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A mix of euro and gfs would be a good solution for a lot of us imo.  At 120 hrs they are fairly similar to one another.  GFS was about 50 miles further south with the southern wave and the high pressure was slightly stronger.  Beyond 120hrs the euro has a strong phase while the gfs keeps the streams separate.  Is the euro biased toward phasing?

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Dollars to donuts says this is a MA/NE snow storm. Just my opinion, but too much has to go right for us and there is little ensemble support for a SE snow. 

It's never good when the NE folks on twitter start getting the football ready to spike on this threat, LOL.  

They had the blizzard yesterday, nice clipper tonight, potential blizzard on Monday and now this day 6 threat.  Would be a good time to spend the next week in Boston...

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Just now, packbacker said:

It's never good when the NE folks on twitter start getting the football ready to spike on this threat, LOL.  

They had the blizzard yesterday, nice clipper tonight, potential blizzard on Monday and now this day 6 threat.  Would be a good time to spend the next week in Boston...

Plus they won the Super Bowl. Why does God hate us so much ?

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1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said:

AO will be strongly negative around the 15th-16th

PNA will be strongly positive around the 15th-16th

MJO will be strongly into phase 8 around the 15th-16th

NAO will be slightly negative around the 15th-16th

Indicies are there if these forecasts hold up.

 

It would be nice to have the EPO negative as well. Looks to be +1 around that time frame. 

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Yep...everybody wants a phase, but I don't think we know what we're really asking for.  A phase is nice and all, but it usually happens a little too far west for most to enjoy snow.  We need a phase over NE FL!

This!!!! I would rather get a late phase of course but a no phase/weaker over runner is great I will take my 3-4" to the bank with a smile..... versus rolling the dice on a all or nothing footer.....cause the odds are we get burned and the interior gets hammered again....

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8 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Ens Mean looks like a blend between the GFS and the Euro.  It trended west with the northern stream diving down, but it doesn't have the inland running sfc low look like the Op.  I'd say it looks pretty good for the N Mtns or NW NC into SW VA.  Otherwise, too warm elsewhere

From today's runs it looks like the chances for something in the east day 5-7 have gone up and potentially a big storm which would favor your typical climo areas for big coastals.  

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