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Jonathan

Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

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So frustrating, just once I'd love for a storm to over perform..... 

 

 

Looking on the bright side it is still cool to see it snow this early in the season. Adds a little to the Christmas spirit. 

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4 minutes ago, Tarheel17 said:

Any room in here?

Seems the western half of the Triangle has cashed in on a few events recently. Charlotte unfortunately remains a battle-line.

Maybe I shouldn't have moved lol

Just dont move to south charlotte/union county.  Even when charlotte cashes in, we get nothing.  Basically always below the snow line...atleast we have been for the 6 years ive lived here

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Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living.

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Just now, Dunkman said:

Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living.

It nailed it for me whereas alot of other models were throwing out a couple inches here.  Nam was about the only one saying nothing...which is what i got.  Still seems to be the best one to depict the warm nose

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Just now, Dunkman said:

Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living.

Wasn't wrong for Charlotte unfortunately. Point taken overall, though.

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I thought the NAM was perfect. It certainly had the warm nose right. As far as upstate SC goes, if 5-6 models snow winter weather and just 1 does not that model will be right.

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19 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

Just dont move to south charlotte/union county.  Even when charlotte cashes in, we get nothing.  Basically always below the snow line...atleast we have been for the 6 years ive lived here

I’ve fared a little better here NW of town but have had higher totals all around me since building over here 7 years ago.  Always something whether anemic rates, tiny flake size, sleet, etc.  Kills me as growing up in northern Catawba County always put me on the good size of these kind of storms.  Wife wants to move back home to somewhere around Asheville so hopefully this time next year I’ll be posting from 3000+ feet.

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Man my parents in High Point got a ton of snow and here in Matthews nothing (basically). Freezing rain and misery. It was snowing at 1-2 am and it was absolutely beautiful. What a dreamcrusher.

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Living in Johnston and working in Durham is punishment on many levels the hours of commuting every day and them getting 10+"s while I get rain every storm. Time to move. 

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1 hour ago, Dunkman said:

Just want to say I'm glad we can go back to treating the NAM like crap. This new world in which it was a trustworthy and respectable model was not a place I was comfortable living.

I think it seems to have done a decent job still, though?  It still generally showed a good storm for GSO, but it seems to have nailed CLT’s sleet/ZR fest.  At least the warm nose isn’t over performing this time.  Seems like Durham is really doing better than expected, too.

Anyways, looks like 10”+ there, which would have been my biggest storm since 2002.  Quite possibly 12”+, which would have been the biggest storm I’ve ever experienced.  Finally, a storm where the crazy QPF forecasts actually happen!

I’ll have to talk to my parents later and see what it looks like there.

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Well, I didn't get my foot of snow for Mooresville, lol. So close to keeping the sleet at bay.  Oh well.  4-5 inches of snow/sleet on the ground in early December is great. We've got a long winter on tap it seems. 

Let's do this again with the same synoptic setup in about a month.  Game on. 

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2 hours ago, JoshWeather said:

It nailed it for me whereas alot of other models were throwing out a couple inches here.  Nam was about the only one saying nothing...which is what i got.  Still seems to be the best one to depict the warm nose

It sucks out here.

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Nearly every model but the NAM was too cold for Charlotte and York County to the south. I'm down around exit 77 area and while sleet has mixed in, there's been 0 accumulation of anything.

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36 minutes ago, KyleEverett said:

Nearly every model but the NAM was too cold for Charlotte and York County to the south. I'm down around exit 77 area and while sleet has mixed in, there's been 0 accumulation of anything.

Every model wasn't too cold for Charlotte if you don't base a model busting or verifying off the clown map predictions which honestly mean nothing in terms of what a model is actually showing.

For instance, some clown maps don't account for warm air above 850mb... some of them don't account for surface temps being above freezing...

As an example: If the GFS is showing a moderate snow sounding at noon with all layers below freezing except the surface temperature is 34 degree's for 3 hours. It's clown maps will show 3 inches of accumulations, but in reality there be 0 accumulation due to the 34 degree surface temperature and solar insolation.

If that verified exactly as the model predicted, there would be 0 accumulation, but Mack would be on here a few hours later crying about how terrible GFS did with his snowstorm.

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2 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

I think it seems to have done a decent job still, though?  It still generally showed a good storm for GSO, but it seems to have nailed CLT’s sleet/ZR fest.  At least the warm nose isn’t over performing this time.  Seems like Durham is really doing better than expected, too.

Anyways, looks like 10”+ there, which would have been my biggest storm since 2002.  Quite possibly 12”+, which would have been the biggest storm I’ve ever experienced.  Finally, a storm where the crazy QPF forecasts actually happen!

I’ll have to talk to my parents later and see what it looks like there.

Yeah I thought the NAM done great. RDU coming out pretty good! Congrats Brick and others!

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To talk further about this specific storm in charlotte. A lot of models were showing a possible "sleet" sounding, but in reality the low level cold pool may not have been deep enough to freeze the water droplets leading to plain rain.  The skew-T could have been dead accurate by that models prediction, but the clown map/precip type map is not sophisticated enough to read a sounding and accurately describe would is falling from the sky with that sounding at every point location in the region.

So precip type map may show all of charlotte in the sleet color zone, when in reality it's simply raining there, but the model did not bust on it's analysis,(other than the precip type maps).

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I can tell you the Fv3GFS absolutely nailed the thermal profile here for our storm and we wound up with 1.25 inches of sleet. If you had simply went by the TT kuchera snowmap for my location it was showing 6 inches of snow right up to the event start time. The map/algorithm just can't accurately describe ground truth and it was just wrong, but all of the measurable air data on the fv3 was accurate, and I got what I expected from the strom based off the fv3 data.

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Looking at models it looks like the upstate will miss out on any snow from the upper level low tonight, except possible extreme eastern or southeastern upstate. Some even showing it to our south all the way to the Midlands. While I won't begrudge the Midlands any snow, it would have been nice for some NEGA /western upstaters to get in on that since the warm nose from Hades visited us last night.

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah , it’s going to be treacherous with all that upper level low that will hammer us tonight! :(

Yeah. I can’t wait for some cold rain. :axe: Just what we need...more rain. 

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