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Jonathan

Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

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last week the models were showing highs in the teens and lows of 0 for piedmont areas. This winter stinks. When the mojo started back in the bad phases and the -nao vanished as always, the whole outlook has been ruined to atleast Feb 15th and then we have lousy sun angle problems. I hate march snow and hot pavement. It all liquifies fast.

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If you’re looking for a -NAO, don’t worry. It’s coming... in April and will last through October only to magically go positive again just in time for next winter.

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Spring is getting underway in the Charleston area. Lots of trees budding and flowering out in Azalea Park in Summerville this past weekend. Had a new bloom this morning out in the backyard as well.  

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29 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Our biggest snows come in March! We got about 4 weeks to get rid of the Flaming February and rock into Marvelous March

Don't you forget about Amazing April and Splendid Spring.  April snows will save winter.

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20 minutes ago, scwxguy said:

Spring is getting underway in the Charleston area. Lots of trees budding and flowering out in Azalea Park in Summerville this past weekend. Had a new bloom this morning out in the backyard as well.  

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Beautiful.

 

Same here in my backyard. Some red bud trees already blooming.

Of course though around this area stays green year round.

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15 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Honestly, with the semi-permenant southeast ridge and  totally absent wintertime -NAO over the past decade, it seems to be becoming the norm. Frustrating as heck, but unless and we can get some larger patterns to realign in our favor this will continue. I'm afraid this is the new normal. With the mountains already making it difficult, much of SC may see less snow than Mobile and FL panhandle going forward. If CAE can't sneak something out in Feb, they'll be looking at a six year drought by the time next winter rolls around. Even GSP has seen only two accumulating snows in Feb and March COMBINED since 2015, and they were .4 and .5 inches.

Snow in SC is quickly becoming a thing of the past.

Each day I'm more amazed how we ****ed this winter up. Neutral to weak Nino, low solar, record NA snowcover in Dec. Yet we still screwed it up. If we couldn't make this year work you have to wonder if we can make any work again.

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2 hours ago, scwxguy said:

Spring is getting underway in the Charleston area. Lots of trees budding and flowering out in Azalea Park in Summerville this past weekend. Had a new bloom this morning out in the backyard as well.  

20190126_132921.jpg

20190128_083421.jpg

Wow, that's early! Looks like its April. Made it down to 27 this am, and had just enough cold to keep that from happening here. Boy that tree is in full bloom though, not just budding!

 

BTW, just checked out NOAA; there's at least a WWA out for EVERY southeastern state except two; Florida and SC. Kind of expected in FL but how pathetic is SC? :facepalm:

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2 hours ago, Turner Team said:

I think its so funny that all of a sudden everybody is giving up on winter when we are only halfway through winter..

Those of us very far south, points from where I am at in Charleston on down, "winter" is for all intents and purposes about over. The sun angle and length of day is rapidly increasing. For VA, I would agree, still lots of time to go as you are much farther north and more prone to the mid-latitude storm systems.

We can see a few cold nights and get around 32 (at 6-7am just before sunrise or for a few hours at best) a few more times here on the Charleston coast but that window is closing with every passing day. After this week, GFS 2m temps are showing 67-70 each day and lows in 50s at night for several days. 

About time to get the pre-emergent down in the yard.

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I'm sitting here in a warm sun in Stuart Va....in short sleeves.....in late January.  I could triple dog dare old man winter right now and he would just walk away in shame.  Stick a fork in it.  Other than a nuisance event this one is D..O...N....E!!

Just bring me a dry March so I can fix all the mud damage, regrade roads and get my seed down.  I'll be cleaning up dead trees and leaners for months thanks to the Big Wet known at 2018.

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2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Wow, that's early! Looks like its April. Made it down to 27 this am, and had just enough cold to keep that from happening here. Boy that tree is in full bloom though, not just budding!

 

BTW, just checked out NOAA; there's at least a WWA out for EVERY southeastern state except two; Florida and SC. Kind of expected in FL but how pathetic is SC? :facepalm:

Yessir its pathetic..

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I keep hearing the argument that we shouldn’t give up on winter yet because it’s not even halfway over but modeling goes out to 15 days so technically it’s almost over. I know you can’t usually trust long range modeling but when it shows heat you can make an exception and count on it. With that said I still wouldn’t toss the idea of one more thread the needle event east of the mountains. Brick will probably add at least another 6” before this exhausting winter comes to s close

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3 hours ago, WarmNose said:

I keep hearing the argument that we shouldn’t give up on winter yet because it’s not even halfway over but modeling goes out to 15 days so technically it’s almost over. I know you can’t usually trust long range modeling but when it shows heat you can make an exception and count on it. With that said I still wouldn’t toss the idea of one more thread the needle event east of the mountains. Brick will probably add at least another 6” before this exhausting winter comes to s close

In all honesty I would agree. I think we see one or two more shots between now and first week of March. Despite recent record warm February's, where winter was truly over by this time, this pattern has just been too changeable to throw in the towel yet. We'll see, it's sure been a hair puller so far.

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12 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Each day I'm more amazed how we ****ed this winter up. Neutral to weak Nino, low solar, record NA snowcover in Dec. Yet we still screwed it up. If we couldn't make this year work you have to wonder if we can make any work again.

Nino failed to really materialize and MJO screwed us. All of these things were sort of options on the table, not great indicators. It all comes down to good blocking around Greenland, -EPO and an active southern stream. Everything else is just proxies on that and not at all guaranteed.

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Meanwhile, people in the upper midwest are praying for our 33 and rain today.  Ya know, if mother nature could just average out our record wet years with a few polar vortexes the entire country would see multiple 6"+ snowfalls each year.  But of course people in San Diego would complain about that.  

Winter sucks.  (At least lately)

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I’m gonna get a lot of flack for this, but here pretty soon, we might as well get used to no snow in the south. Sure, it may happen on a rare occasion, but our climate will be tropical in nature. Winter will be mostly mild conditions with moonsoons. I grew up on the MS gulf coast. It used to snow there about once every 4 years. I think its been almost a decade now without snow of any appreciated amount. 

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Winters are very random in the Southeast by their nature.  It only takes one storm for most of us to get to climo.  Bad winters with one good week can do this and cold winters can sometimes fail to do this.  A good pattern is no guarantee of anything.

For example, if it never seems another flake the rest of winter and it torches, GSO will finish at 150% of climo this year, all because of one historic storm in December.

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54 minutes ago, Touchet said:

I’m gonna get a lot of flack for this, but here pretty soon, we might as well get used to no snow in the south. Sure, it may happen on a rare occasion, but our climate will be tropical in nature. Winter will be mostly mild conditions with moonsoons. I grew up on the MS gulf coast. It used to snow there about once every 4 years. I think its been almost a decade now without snow of any appreciated amount. 

Some areas of the Southeast had a historic snowstorm just a little over a month ago.

Birmingham averages something like 1.5" of snow per winter.  You're not going to see accumulating snows a lot of winters with that kind of an average.  It wouldn't surprise me if the median snowfall is 0".  With an average like that, the 1993 Superstorm's 13" represents over 8 years of climo, for example, so BHM could've went snowless until the turn of the millennium and still been at climo over that span.

Now, that's not to say that Birmingham hasn't been in a snow drought still in recent years, but that's certainly not true everywhere.  Some areas of NC are definitely above climo this decade, for example (but these areas had a pretty acute snow drought from 2005-2008).  Things may turn around.

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Forgetting averages, amounts, and odd storms in early Dec for the moment...

Just looking at what time is left on the game clock for 2019 winter it is hard to see another storm right now.  This pattern of cold, then warm, then rinse with rain, then repeat is not going to cut it. 

We seem to have another cold shot coming on deck late next week but that is still iffy, then we warm again, after that we get into post Feb 15th.  Then we begin to live on a model and a prayer to beat the odds   

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It's incredible how bad of a handle local Mets have on winter weather around here. Time to look forward to spring.

Having lived in the Chicago area for 30+ years I can honestly say that you really don't want a Midwest winter. It's a never ending struggle. It's either cold and dry, cool but not cold enough or it's extremely cold and snowy. It's awful.

There's nothing fun about a late April snow and upper 40's with a breeze off Lake Michigan for Father's Day. 

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59 minutes ago, magoos0728 said:

It's incredible how bad of a handle local Mets have on winter weather around here. Time to look forward to spring.

Having lived in the Chicago area for 30+ years I can honestly say that you really don't want a Midwest winter. It's a never ending struggle. It's either cold and dry, cool but not cold enough or it's extremely cold and snowy. It's awful.

There's nothing fun about a late April snow and upper 40's with a breeze off Lake Michigan for Father's Day. 

+1

There is a reason I am the contrarian in here hoping for no cold weather or snow.  When it snowed here in CHS last January I knew it wasn't normal but at the same time thought I didn't move far enough south. After 30+ years of the above abuse living in Chicago and just a few blocks of the lake an endless winter followed by a cold spring with constant "lake effect" days with warm weather that can be equally fleeting in summer you never want to deal with any of it again. There have been years with "June Gloom" of endless cloudy cool days and even cold 4th of Julys. One thing that is always guaranteed is winter will arrive on schedule.

Moving to the south and eliminating winter has been an improvement in my quality of life unlike any other. I many of you enjoy it and the prospect of something that isn't typical, but you can easily get on a plane and see it for yourself :)

Spending 6 months of the year counting down to the next warm season is no way to live!

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Neither is spending six months of the year counting down to the first cool front, and having to hope against hope for one little dusting of snow to get a little change of pace!:P 

So where's the balance? Boone?

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6 hours ago, Touchet said:

I’m gonna get a lot of flack for this, but here pretty soon, we might as well get used to no snow in the south. Sure, it may happen on a rare occasion, but our climate will be tropical in nature. Winter will be mostly mild conditions with moonsoons. I grew up on the MS gulf coast. It used to snow there about once every 4 years. I think its been almost a decade now without snow of any appreciated amount. 

Once blocking returns, we'll be good.  We've generally had an extremely poor run in that department.  Not surprising that snow and winter storms are down.  Now, why is blocking in winter so uncommon?  Not sure.

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For those feeling the angst of a SH!TTY winter so far, just remember that the Winter of 1960 in North Carolina went SNOWLESS until Mid Feb of that year. The record for TOTAL Snowfall in a season was broken in Charlotte, NC. It snowed on February the 14th and then another lull until March 2nd, where the snowgates opened up and it snowed back to back to back. They ended up with 27" overall, which is way higher than the average 4-6 b/s we see. Just giving some food for thought that winter is not always over until April, etc. 

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