January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

We lost a couple inches from the day 7 wave, there were still some big hits in previous runs with that wave to our west, they are pretty much gone now.  The snow from the day 9-12 period is about the same.  Its mostly noise.  If i wanted to nitpick the blocking shifted east slightly in the long range 18z and that is not good but its been shifting around run to run, it wasnt a huge difference. 

Seasonal trend has been to weaken the blocking in the N Atl as lead time shortens and progress it/dampen it out towards Ireland. Not trying to ruin the party bit that trend shouldn't be ignored. We just can't buy good blocking in the N Atl this season it seems. its been all over the LR EPS and GEFS but just hasn't come to fruition. Aside from a SSWE I really don't know what else it will take to change this.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seasonal trend has been to weaken the blocking in the N Atl as lead time shortens and progress it/dampen it out towards Ireland. Not trying to ruin the party bit that trend shouldn't be ignored. We just can't buy good blocking in the N Atl this season it seems. its been all over the LR EPS and GEFS but just hasn't come to fruition. Aside from a SSWE I really don't know what else it will take to change this.

A fairly decent east based block sets up in just a few days. I think we will get some nao help but that doesn't guarantee us anything. 

[Interstate]

Night and Day between the 18z and 0z GFS on the 500 at 180

[WinterWxLuvr]

13 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Night and Day between the 18z and 0z GFS on the 500 at 180

And it's an eyelash from popping a good storm for us at 228.

Inside 10 days.

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And it's an eyelash from popping a good storm for us at 228.

Inside 10 days.

Yep... just need some more digging.  Complete 360 from the 18z

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Yep... just need some more digging.  Complete 360 from the 18z

We're still way too far out to be expecting much continuity on details run to run. Last years storm maybe skewed things perception wise and the guidance is better then it used to be but we're still talking 10 days out here. The changes in the last several gfs runs are mostly noise from that range. Some cow in Nebraska farted and the storm is 100 miles different from 240 hours. 

[Ji]

Euro 8 inches for us

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[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro 8 inches for us

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Not enough I know. Bet we can scrape a bit more out of it though. 

[winterymix]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro 8 inches for us

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The   EURO tries to develop SLP along the GOM coast but still, there is also SLP near Detroit.  Maybe a snow to rain

setup.

[kurtstack]

euro has a very nice setup at 240 still 10 days away though...


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[CAPE]

Mean snowfall on the 0z EPS looks solid. It reflects the possibility of a southern track. Some members have our area on the northern fringes or a whiff. Quite a few with very solid hits as well. Good place to be at this range given almost every storm so far has ended up tracking to our NW.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, winterymix said:

The   EURO tries to develop SLP along the GOM coast but still, there is also SLP near Detroit.  Maybe a snow to rain

setup.

That's not what the euro shows. It's all snow and not even close to rain. Primary into WV and jump to the coast. Broad hp to the north with lots of wiggle room. The bigger risk in the ensembles is a miss to the south. 

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not what the euro shows. It's all snow and not even close to rain. Primary into WV and jump to the coast. Broad hp to the north with lots of wiggle room. The bigger risk in the ensembles is a miss to the south. 

As you've pointed out, the AO and NAO have verified more positive than long range predictions for the last two months. I'm not worried about suppression at this stage. As can be seen in the GEFS, there's still a risk of a storm tracking to our west even, depending on how the various shortwaves shake out.

Overnight ensemble means still look great at 500 for day 8-10. Let's keep that look into Sunday and then we can probably hone in on a storm.  

[mitchnick]

35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not what the euro shows. It's all snow and not even close to rain. Primary into WV and jump to the coast. Broad hp to the north with lots of wiggle room. The bigger risk in the ensembles is a miss to the south. 

What day (s) are we talking about? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What day (s) are we talking about? 

Jan 17.

Wheres my damn snow!

 

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

What day (s) are we talking about? 

Days 8-10.

GFS flirted with it at 0z but not so much at 6z.  Euro has had it for a couple of runs.  I'd expect the next gfs to bring it back. Just a hunch.

[Wonderdog]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Days 8-10.

GFS flirted with it at 0z but not so much at 6z.  Euro has had it for a couple of runs.  I'd expect the next gfs to bring it back. Just a hunch.

That period seems to be our first real shot. 6z seemed to be close even though it was suppressed.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Days 8-10.

GFS flirted with it at 0z but not so much at 6z.  Euro has had it for a couple of runs.  I'd expect the next gfs to bring it back. Just a hunch.

Thanks. I've been reading the thread, but haven't really been delving into the specifics of the various models. 

[frd]

49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not what the euro shows. It's all snow and not even close to rain. Primary into WV and jump to the coast. Broad hp to the north with lots of wiggle room. The bigger risk in the ensembles is a miss to the south. 

It appears the trend is a weakening of the mean trough out West and a continual attempt at weakening of the WAR.  

It also seems that a bias with the Euro, if you want to call it that, is a slight overestimatng of the strength of the WAR as well in days 6 to 10.  

[frd]

Interesting animation,  taken at face value using the GFS , if correct and the PV tilts in that manner , maybe the cold weather period relaxes after Jan 12 th. And we do get the comeback in the WAR . 

Some , not referring to Judah here , have mentioned the possibility of a PV weakening and there are some signs now that might occuring in mid Jan, even after the time period of this animation, referring to wave 1 activity and upwelling.   

   

 

[psuhoffman]

I'm fine with the overnight runs. Kept the basic threat there. Right now the bullseye is Richmond. Given the seasonal trends that's a good place to be 9 days out. 

[leo1000]

57 minutes ago, frd said:

Interesting animation,  taken at face value using the GFS , if correct and the PV tilts in that manner , maybe the cold weather period relaxes after Jan 12 th. And we do get the comeback in the WAR . 

Some , not referring to Judah here , have mentioned the possibility of a PV weakening and there are some signs now that might occuring in mid Jan, even after the time period of this animation, referring to wave 1 activity and upwelling.   

   

 

I figured as much, that will probably allow the SE ridge to dominate the east coast. Yuck. 

[frd]

42 minutes ago, leo1000 said:

I figured as much, that will probably allow the SE ridge to dominate the east coast. Yuck. 

Not sure I would say dominant , as that is far off and even tough the WAR has been a rather consistent feature at times,  it's strenght has fluctuated , and in terms of modeling has been forecasted stronger than what was modeled.

I feel we relax the pattern ( as in the animation above but Canada stays very cold ) and then the PV weakens further mid Jan combined with a weakening La Nina as well. That leads to possibly the longest stretch of - AO of the winter and this might combine with a + PNA as well. I would even think a - NAO might be possible, but not sold on that as much as the - AO.

Maybe we get another good window late Jan well into Feb. Just some speculation.   

        

[Interstate]

I think everyone will be much happier with this run

[Thanatos_I_Am]

I think everyone will be much happier with this run

To my untrained eye, it seems the same as last night's 0z regarding that threat?

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

SE Ridge more pronounced especially near Jan 6-7.....need to watch that first wave imo. Puts the Mid Atl in the game for round 1 anyway this run.

So with that ridging, the storm should ride farther north?

[Interstate]

5 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 

To my untrained eye, it seems the same as last night's 0z regarding that threat?

 

Well way better than the 6z and north of the 0z

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

 

To my untrained eye, it seems the same as last night's 0z regarding that threat?

 

Big diffs in regards to the SE Ridge bumping this North:

6z vs 12z (ignore the time stamp I assure you these are the 12z and 6z panels):

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

So with that ridging, the storm should ride farther north?

Careful what you root for. 

[Porsche]

Here you go.