Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017

[griteater]

1 hour ago, Jon said:

That's fine, I think there's lots to learn post 240hrs on modeling. Ensembles for one, but sometimes the Operational or even controls can sniff out patterns before the ensembles. I have a classic case of this when I was posting on PV drop a couple of years back, little tipsy from eggnog so Year is escaping me but it was the year that made the polar vortex a thing in media - the Euro control was the first one to "see" it. Pretty much showed what the 18z showed tonight, then all operationals and ensembles followed suit- yet it was the control Day 13-15 that sniffed it out first.

I'm not saying trust 300+ hour operationals, but looking at trends is important. I love the 8-10 day means, btw, from PSU ewall. But I love forecasting patterns, I could care less once the storm arrives....so 10-15 day is big for me, but I understand if not all see it that way.

Agree with you Jon that things in the pattern can certainly be gleaned when looking out past day 10...i.e. trends with the big picture features.  As for the current extended model output, it looks like to me that we still have a lot of work to do to get things looking more wintry around here.

[Jon]

I understand the difference between the operational and the ensembles.  What is the "control"?

It's the Operational run which is ran at a lower resolution based on best initial
conditions. Then the control is perturbed 50 times over which creates the 50 ensemble members which are then averaged to produce the ensemble mean. So the control is just what's used to generate the members/mean. Usually the control seems to "go wild" with certain solutions, but that's only due to its lower resolution.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jon]

I believe that was January 2014. I remember people where like that will never happen. That will never make it. The Euro crushed the GFS with that pattern. The Euro had it days before the GFS did. I remember the could not's turned into daytime temps dropping to zero and lows in the negative teens.

Yes! I dug up some old saved images.

Control run prediction:


GEFS played catch up




Euro OP


That was fun!





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[griteater]

8 minutes ago, Jon said:

It's the Operational run which is ran at a lower resolution based on best initial
conditions. Then the control is perturbed 50 times over which creates the 50 ensemble members which are then averaged to produce the ensemble mean. So the control is just what's used to generate the members/mean. Usually the control seems to "go wild" with certain solutions, but that's only due to its lower resolution.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just a note to add that the Euro Ensemble has 50 members, while the GFS Ensemble has 20.

More info on ensemble prediction systems - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/

[NC_hailstorm]

I'm fairly certain the PV is going to be on the move soon and somewhere to N.America but where exactly is kinda impossible to say.If the forecasts from the Berlin site are correct another flux warming will take place and its a little stronger than Novembers readings.

Obviously the further southeast the better if you want a shot at winter weather,but I'd like to see the west coast ridge nudge a tad east if you want to trap it in,west central Canada has been the hot spot lately,allowing ridging to hold on to our south.

Just my opinion.

[pcbjr]

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2h2 hours ago

Here's a late Christmas present -- GFS 18z unloading the #PolarVortex on central Lower 48 -- but it's 7-8 days away ... could go poof.

8 replies 31 retweets 32 likes

 

[burrel2]

3 hours ago, Jon said:

That's fine, I think there's lots to learn post 240hrs on modeling. Ensembles for one, but sometimes the Operational or even controls can sniff out patterns before the ensembles. I have a classic case of this when I was posting on PV drop a couple of years back, little tipsy from eggnog so Year is escaping me but it was the year that made the polar vortex a thing in media - the Euro control was the first one to "see" it. Pretty much showed what the 18z showed tonight, then all operationals and ensembles followed suit- yet it was the control Day 13-15 that sniffed it out first.

I'm not saying trust 300+ hour operationals, but looking at trends is important. I love the 8-10 day means, btw, from PSU ewall. But I love forecasting patterns, I could care less once the storm arrives....so 10-15 day is big for me, but I understand if not all see it that way.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's fair.  I mean, clearly the pattern post day 10 looks better than the last 2 weeks, but I just hate seeing a trough centered that far to our west. It seems to me from many years of model watching, that we have much better luck when the predicted mean trough is centered in a good position or too far to our East.

Anytime the models hint at having a ridge well off the west coast, with huge sprawling high pressures riding down the east side of the Rocky mountains... it just trends farther west with time and we wind up with washed up cold fronts that give us 1 or two days of cold/dry followed by cutters.

But maybe we'll have better luck this time. At least there's plenty of blocking showing up across all the modeling. Just need the pieces to line up a little better.

Also, FWIW, I'm going to be snow skiing in Colorado from Jan. 14 to the 21st, so you can probably bank on a death ridge from hell over the rockies that week with multiple snow storms over the Southeast.

[Jonathan]

I think you can take these images to sum up winter 16-17 when it's all said and done. This picture has been burned into the models for days now. There's no way it's wrong.

About the closest you could ever be to glory without ever experiencing even a taste of it. Proof that blocking doesn't mean squat.

[Jonathan]

Yowza! +30 above normal anyone? Maybe we can get us a good ol' fashioned January tornado outbreak to track! 

[Cary_Snow95]

8 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

I think you can take these images to sum up winter 16-17 when it's all said and done. This picture has been burned into the models for days now. There's no way it's wrong.

About the closest you could ever be to glory without ever experiencing even a taste of it. Proof that blocking doesn't mean squat.

Well that run shows a 48 hr storm for nc so I'm all in 

[bhamwx205]

I think you can take these images to sum up winter 16-17 when it's all said and done. This picture has been burned into the models for days now. There's no way it's wrong.

About the closest you could ever be to glory without ever experiencing even a taste of it. Proof that blocking doesn't mean squat.

that pattern will work out well for areas west of the apps , not so much east of the apps as the cold push will have a hard time making much progress . Get a big front to stall with a SW flow and overrunning will produce

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

I think you can take these images to sum up winter 16-17 when it's all said and done. This picture has been burned into the models for days now. There's no way it's wrong.

About the closest you could ever be to glory without ever experiencing even a taste of it. Proof that blocking doesn't mean squat.

Come on man..... lighten up just a tad. For starters, we will get our winter weather. MBY has never been shut-out in the snow department and this will not be the year it happens. The block you think will not mean squat, is not compatible with a SER. It would be extremely rare to have a block that strong and a SER at the same time. I call BS.....

[Jonathan]

Just now, bhamwx205 said:

that pattern will work out well for areas west of the apps , not so much east of the apps as the cold push will have a hard time making much progress . Get a big front to stall with a SW flow and overrunning will produce

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 

Any cold front in that pattern will set up shop on the western slopes of the Apps. But hey, cutters are our game this winter! 

[NCSNOW]

3 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Well that run shows a 48 hr storm for nc so I'm all in 

Yep. I'll cash in with this run and take my chances. Love the trends.

[Cary_Snow95]

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Yep. I'll cash in with this run and take my chances. Love the trends.

We've had much worse looks and the board is still depressed lol. Guys let's all be jolly

[Jonathan]

2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Come on man..... lighten up just a tad. For starters, we will get our winter weather. MBY has never been shut-out in the snow department and this will not be the year it happens. The block you think will not mean squat, is not compatible with a SER. It would be extremely rare to have a block that strong and a SER at the same time. I call BS.....

There's a first time for everything. The North pole was almost above freezing last week. Our planet is very sick.

We need to find a name for this pattern. The Baja-Quebec trough? 

This is more than a run of the mill SE ridge. This is an entire Atlantic basin ridge. Real ugly.

[Cary_Snow95]

2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

There's a first time for everything. The North pole was almost above freezing last week. Our planet is very sick.

We need to find a name for this pattern. The Baja-Quebec trough? 

This is more than a run of the mill SE ridge. This is an entire Atlantic basin ridge. Real ugly.

Yet the fantasy snows were epic so the whole run wasn't ugly. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

3 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

There's a first time for everything. The North pole was almost above freezing last week. Our planet is very sick.

We need to find a name for this pattern. The Baja-Quebec trough? 

This is more than a run of the mill SE ridge. This is an entire Atlantic basin ridge. Real ugly.

I see the anomalies.... However, I am not as down on winter as some are. I see the opportunity for a powerful "zipper low" if we can get an arctic front to hang up along the SE coastline. With a temperature gradient like that, we could be staring down the barrel of a record coastal low pressure system at some point. I have a great deal of confidence that Canada will be cold in January and right now the debate is how far south and east that cold air is able to progress. We are getting ready to enter the peak season for deep troughs and little changes in the position or orientation could have big consequences for us. Bottom line is we can't write off any solution for Jan at this point. It is not wise to assume that the last 4 weeks will be the same as the next 4.

[franklin NCwx]

I see some improvements on the ensembles. I hope that continues. 

[oconeexman]

7 hours ago, Jonathan said:

Yowza! +30 above normal anyone? Maybe we can get us a good ol' fashioned January tornado outbreak to track! 

Dude you need to lighten up a bit. Posting an 18z run anomaly chart from the gfs 200 hours out knowing it will change...in fact has already. Not near as bad on the next run. I'd say posts like these and some others are for sure why a lot of people have moved on to different boards. You are a knowledgeable fellow it seems but use common sense as well.

[weathertree4u]

16 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Dude you need to lighten up a bit. Posting an 18z run anomaly chart from the gfs 200 hours out knowing it will change...in fact has already. Not near as bad on the next run. I'd say posts like these and some others are for sure why a lot of people have moved on to different boards. You are a knowledgeable fellow it seems but use common sense as well.

I for one enjoy seeing the way that models flip from run to run. How else can that be demonstrated unless the maps are posted?

[packbacker]

4 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

I for one enjoy seeing the way that models flip from run to run. How else can that be demonstrated unless the maps are posted?

Yep, agree.  We may be wishing for some 60's if the ensembles are correct for day 10-15.  Curious to see how well these day 11-12 temps verify.

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Yep, agree.  We may be wishing for some 60's if the ensembles are correct for day 10-15.  Curious to see how well these day 11-12 temps verify.

If one looks not too far in the recent past, for example, if you go to youtube and view the covereage of 1985 in Memphis and December of 1983, it is amazing that the weather was forecasted with as much accuracy as it was. I am just like everyone else, frustrated when modeling changes on a dime but the shear physics alone that go into each of these model runs is mind boggling. We are privileged to live in the era in which we do. The amazing thing is, that in twenty years, we will look back to this time period and wonder how we ever got it right with such primitive modeling!

[Jonathan]

44 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Dude you need to lighten up a bit. Posting an 18z run anomaly chart from the gfs 200 hours out knowing it will change...in fact has already. Not near as bad on the next run. I'd say posts like these and some others are for sure why a lot of people have moved on to different boards. You are a knowledgeable fellow it seems but use common sense as well.

That was the 0z run, btw. Still almost exactly the same on the 6z too.

[Prestige Worldwide]

This looks encouraging 

 

[Lowershoresadness]

6 minutes ago, debeaches said:

This looks encouraging 

 

My ex looked encouraging at the beginning as well sooooooo we will just have to be patient for the time being

[Jon]

Ok this is what you guys needed. Yes it's fantasy but now you can believe!
Back-to-back storms on the 00z and 6z GFS.

[msuwx]

1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

That was the 0z run, btw. Still almost exactly the same on the 6z too.

Followed by wall to wall CONUS cold 3 days later. Warm air ahead of arctic plunge. 

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, Jonathan said:

That was the 0z run, btw. Still almost exactly the same on the 6z too.

Funny you not posting the 5,6,7th anomalies!

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Yep, agree.  We may be wishing for some 60's if the ensembles are correct for day 10-15.  Curious to see how well these day 11-12 temps verify.

Those look exactly like the maps for the last outbreak! Where Chicago got down to 20 below or colder, but it backed off for us and never really got over the mountains good! Hope that doesn't happen again!