Cary_Snow95 Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 12z a little colder around NYE and day timeframe, fwiw lots of big cutters! And some rains! Quite the block setting up in the LR. Keeps us warm but nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I have a hunch that both of our subs are going to start getting excited by next weekend. Ens guidance seems to be holding a better look starting around the 5th. There is finally some consensus with a more confluent look in the east instead of easy ridging leading into frontal passages. Broad conus troughing on the means is encouraging. We need hp over the top to have a chance. The baroclinic zone looks to keep carving further south over the next 10 days and a cold conus pattern is slowly becoming likely. It sucks of course that we'll both have to endure multipe rain events for a while but my gut is telling me that a real window is coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I give up. Time to take a one week hiatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 5 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Quite the block setting up in the LR. Keeps us warm but nice to see What kind of block keeps us warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 16 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What kind of block keeps us warm? A block keeping cold just to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 25, 2016 Author Share Posted December 25, 2016 Really nice look in the Lr. Great storm track to start with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I have a hunch that both of our subs are going to start getting excited by next weekend. Ens guidance seems to be holding a better look starting around the 5th. There is finally some consensus with a more confluent look in the east instead of easy ridging leading into frontal passages. Broad conus troughing on the means is encouraging. We need hp over the top to have a chance. The baroclinic zone looks to keep carving further south over the next 10 days and a cold conus pattern is slowly becoming likely. It sucks of course that we'll both have to endure multipe rain events for a while but my gut is telling me that a real window is coming up. Yep! Really looking good in that timeframe!! Especially in yalls area! That is a classic track and maybe both forums can cash in! Definitely starting to get excited! It's been showing up for a few days now, the general idea of a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshevilleCityWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Yea rain several times hard then it will turn cold and dry. No reason to get excited over that, fantasy storms that are tailing 2 or 3 rain events will change once it gets to day 5. We need a fast forward button for about 12days+. Nothing to see here in the short or mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 21 minutes ago, AshevilleCityWx said: Yea rain several times hard then it will turn cold and dry. No reason to get excited over that, fantasy storms that are tailing 2 or 3 rain events will change once it gets to day 5. We need a fast forward button for about 12days+. Nothing to see here in the short or mid range. Don't bother. They won't listen. That's what I've been saying, at least two weeks. Probably 3-4. Which would put us in late-JAN to get the pattern, Fab FEB for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Models seem to be rolling the pattern forward...a little more trough in the central conus and a little less ridge poking into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I'm posting model analysis. The CFS has lost the cool anomalies for basically the entire nation for JAN in these crucial end-of-the-month runs. Not good. The MJO is heading towards phase 3. Terrible. The GEFS is wall-to-wall warm right through 300hr. Awful. The EPS is wall-to-wall warm for 10+ days minus NYE. Disgusting. All models have lost the decent-looking HLB LR pattern shown the past few days, even the Para. You want more?the 12z gefs supports a colder patter .12z gfs goes nuts with blocking Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 much better gefs look Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I have a hunch that both of our subs are going to start getting excited by next weekend. Ens guidance seems to be holding a better look starting around the 5th. There is finally some consensus with a more confluent look in the east instead of easy ridging leading into frontal passages. Broad conus troughing on the means is encouraging. We need hp over the top to have a chance. The baroclinic zone looks to keep carving further south over the next 10 days and a cold conus pattern is slowly becoming likely. It sucks of course that we'll both have to endure multipe rain events for a while but my gut is telling me that a real window is coming up. Interesting that 62 keeps popping up as top analog. For RDU and it looks like you area too it was one of the most epic stretches we could have, multiple winter storms from around Jan 10-28th. Now that I have jinxed us...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 2 hours ago, Jon said: Indices are looking up, we actually have the AO forecasted at least neutral with the NAO and EPO to take a dive. The Euro is on our side. I believe unless we see some fantasy storms on the globals, this forum won't be happy. So I'm hoping for a Christmas miracle fantasy snow today! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Congrats cause you just got it. Actually been showing it last day or 2 on and off. Nice hit TN and northern 2/3 rds of NC. Bob's right. Very strong signals for a great window of opportunity coming up starting late first week of January. Those fronts are gonna set the table for overruning events. Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Congrats cause you just got it. Actually been showing it last day or 2 on and off. Nice hit TN and northern 2/3 rds of NC. Bob's right. Very strong signals for a great window of opportunity coming up starting late first week of January. Those fronts are gonna set the table for overruning events. Can't wait. I agree with bob and honestly I couldn't be more excited about the Jan pattern. We go from blowtorch ridges to what Pack just posted that the GEFS is showing. Issue here for a lot of folks is no fantasy storms, plain and simple. They need a model to drop snow to believe in a pattern. I guess it does help to know something is possible if a model shows it, but with pattern recognition and indices that's all you truthfully need. We've cashed in with patterns that look like crap to be honest. Also We don't really want overwhelming cold showing up on the ensembles - any deeply negative anomalies for January would most likely lead to suppression of any system we get out of the gulf...We need it just right in the Carolinas...yeah this pattern may yield some mix events/IP but that's better than toasting all year. This pattern could work out quite well for areas in elevation. Very interesting look.Just saw the run. 1052 HP sliding into the Con. US, wow. Hoping the later runs bring a big one for weenies near and far! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jon said: Hoping the later runs bring a big one for weenies near and far! Thanks for the Christmas wishes and cheer, Jon! Best and Merry Christmas! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Wow. maybe even pcbjr can get some snow with this great pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Wow. maybe even pcbjr can get some snow with this great pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 18 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Wow. maybe even pcbjr can get some snow with this great pattern coming up. You must be on some of that chronic eggnog! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Just now, mackerel_sky said: You must be on some of that chronic eggnog! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 24 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Wow. maybe even pcbjr can get some snow with this great pattern coming up. He will probably get some before Carrollton or Donglonia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: He will probably get some before Carrollton or Donglonia! I can't find the post from late last year, but we did have snow showers and the Board lit up when I posted. Just remembering this day from 1989 - drove up to Jax to see my folks for Christms; left here with an inch on the ground; got to the parents' home in Jax and about 2"; my Dad the south GA boy, wanted to take his Tahoe out to north Jax to see the 4" and on the way slid off the road. I laughed so hard when he called me and wanted his FWD chained out of a ditch :~) Having just moved back from the lake effect area in far north Indiana, all I could do was smile, smile, smile Anyway - Merry Christmas! We'll get it again - sometime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 To clarify my post to Jon, it's the ens means i was referencing, not a op. Like Jon said it's the ens that will have a more accurate picture, not a op out past 5 days. The means and indy members showing white carpet being laid have been consistent and starting to beat the drum louder. If your watching those, not the op then you can clearly see the trend and looking at 5h its easy to see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Personally, I couldn't care less about a 10 day fantasy snowstorm beyond the realm of entertainment. The only thing I am remotely concerned about is all of the long range holiday ensemble cheer getting closer to the dinner table. I've seen a lot of ensemble patterns this year that have looked great through the 300 hr+ beer goggles only to sober up quickly inside truncation. Hopefully, we can work out a Christmas miracle pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I don't see anything to get excited about in January. Looks like blocking is going to set up and provide more record snowfall out west in the rocky mountains while we continue to be the warmest place in the United States with a persistent SE ridge. I'm as optimistic of a person as you will find, but I just don't see it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Jan is done. Got to wait until Feb for winter in the southeast. Look back at the winter of 1988-89 and you'll see how I think things go for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 That image I posted was 0z. 12z is even worse, (and consistent). It's time to step away from the models for a week fella's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I don't see anything to get excited about in January. Looks like blocking is going to set up and provide more record snowfall out west in the rocky mountains while we continue to be the warmest place in the United States with a persistent SE ridge. I'm as optimistic of a person as you will find, but I just don't see it... Finally, a voice of reason! I've had 22" of ensemble snow this year! Vs 0 in reality and sitting at 68 degrees currently on Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 EPS is going nuts with the AK ridge, drops the PV lobe down into HB by day 10. Going to take a lot to weaken that atlantic ridge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 VA/NC border will ultimately be the battleground in my opinion when the cold fights the SER in January. South of there it will take a west based NAO to break through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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