J.C. Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 00z has lots of lows in the 50s in 60s in this area, definitely need to get the pre-emergent ready, and I'm not at all being sarcastic. CAE has been below freezing a whopping 11 times this season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Then it gets silly cold in the uber LR. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/springlike-warmth-to-begin-on-christmas-day-across-southeastern-us/70000369 " Throughout the Christmas holiday last year, much of the Southeastern states basked in record warmth. Atlanta set a record high five days in a row from Dec. 24 to Dec. 27, reaching the mid- to upper 70s. This year will be no different. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 11 minutes ago, J.C. said: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/springlike-warmth-to-begin-on-christmas-day-across-southeastern-us/70000369 " Throughout the Christmas holiday last year, much of the Southeastern states basked in record warmth. Atlanta set a record high five days in a row from Dec. 24 to Dec. 27, reaching the mid- to upper 70s. This year will be no different. " Hmm. My math may be off but isn't Dec 24-27th four days and not five? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Hmm. My math may be off but isn't Dec 24-27th four days and not five? Haha yep, typical accuweather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Not even a flake on the Para. Merry Christmas, SE crew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I am not jumping off a cliff and cancelling winter yet but I consider that the probability of it turning out to be a "good" winter is pretty low at this point. If one were to grade a winter on a 0 to 100 point scale I am expecting this year's to be somewhere in the 30 - 50 range. I personally judge winters mainly on a temperature basis but with significant impact from frozen precip. As far as temps go, I would take into account both average and extreme events. So if two winters came out with the same average temp, I would rate a winter as better if it had more cold snaps and/or fewer torch spells Assuming that the last five years of perpetual non-blocking is not the new AGW normal, I look forward to a regime change. Maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I am not jumping off a cliff and cancelling winter yet but I consider that the probability of it turning out to be a "good" winter is pretty low at this point. If one were to grade a winter on a 0 to 100 point scale I am expecting this year's to be somewhere in the 30 - 50 range. I personally judge winters mainly on a temperature basis but with significant impact from frozen precip. As far as temps go, I would take into account both average and extreme events. So if two winters came out with the same average temp, I would rate a winter as better if it had more cold snaps and/or fewer torch spells Assuming that the last five years of perpetual non-blocking is not the new AGW normal, I look forward to a regime change. Maybe next year. Oh, and last December came in at -1,000 on my scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 24 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Hmm. My math may be off but isn't Dec 24-27th four days and not five? According RAH, central NC looks to dodge at least some of this next week. It will still be mild, just annoyingly so as opposed to nauseatingly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 6Z blows, as in torch! Horrible , warm run! Awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 16 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 6Z blows, as in torch! Horrible , warm run! Awesome Don't worry, it's wrong. Snow incoming first week of JAN. Second run in a row with not even a fantasy flake on the snow/cold-happy GFS-Para. Gonna be a quiet next two weeks in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 6 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Don't worry, it's wrong. Snow incoming first week of JAN. Second run in a row with not even a fantasy flake on the snow/cold-happy GFS-Para. Gonna be a quiet next two weeks in here! Then you might as well leave now. The models are changing every single day. But make sure you keep harping on the runs that don't show anything when there have been others showing a strong storm signal and cold. And a couple of days near 70 and the rest of the week at or below average temps is not a torch. And it doesn't have to be in the teens to get a winter storm. As long as it is below freezing and a chance for a winter storm, who cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Then you might as well leave now. Merry Christmas, ya filthy animal. And a happy (warm) new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Just now, Jonathan said: Merry Christmas, ya filthy animal. And a happy (warm) new year! So you just want to stay on troll. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: So you just want to stay on troll. Got it. I'm posting model analysis. The CFS has lost the cool anomalies for basically the entire nation for JAN in these crucial end-of-the-month runs. Not good. The MJO is heading towards phase 3. Terrible. The GEFS is wall-to-wall warm right through 300hr. Awful. The EPS is wall-to-wall warm for 10+ days minus NYE. Disgusting. All models have lost the decent-looking HLB LR pattern shown the past few days, even the Para. You want more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 9 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Merry Christmas, ya filthy animal. And a happy (warm) new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 8 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I'm posting model analysis. The CFS has lost the cool anomalies for basically the entire nation for JAN in these crucial end-of-the-month runs. Not good. The MJO is heading towards phase 3. Terrible. The GEFS is wall-to-wall warm right through 300hr. Awful. The EPS is wall-to-wall warm for 10+ days minus NYE. Disgusting. All models have lost the decent-looking HLB LR pattern shown the past few days, even the Para. You want more? Go back to 24 hours earlier when everyone was excited about the model runs and pattern. That's my point. They change every day, but you always harp on the negative when we really have no idea what it will be like past a week. I guess it's your shtick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I wish we could get as much snow and cold as we do warm, just wish the weather was the opposite this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 GEFS trying to drift the trough east some, actually bulk of the conus BN for days 11+. EPS starts doing this day 14 or so....below are the wQBO/ weak nina winter and we look to be going down that path. These were all snowy winters, with several having snowy Januarys. It may not be till mid/end of January but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Merry Christmas, ya filthy animal. And a happy (warm) new year!That's actually normal in the SE, not a bad look. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 This is the last 10 days of CFS runs...about what we would expect for Jan. Hopefully that SE warmth is from the first 10 days of January and last half of Jan is BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 CFS is verifying fairly nicely for December. Below is the last 10 days of runs during Nov for Dec, with the torch in the east to finish out the Dec it should blend fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 16 minutes ago, packbacker said: This is the last 10 days of CFS runs...about what we would expect for Jan. Hopefully that SE warmth is from the first 10 days of January and last half of Jan is BN. That actually looks like the current pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 These runs , have the runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 46 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Go back to 24 hours earlier when everyone was excited about the model runs and pattern. That's my point. They change every day, but you always harp on the negative when we really have no idea what it will be like past a week. I guess it's your shtick. Somebody must have been on the naughty list this Christmas. Grumpy grumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 This is the last 10 days of CFS runs...about what we would expect for Jan. Hopefully that SE warmth is from the first 10 days of January and last half of Jan is BN.CFS tends to have a run or two in the last 10 that has a torch which is way overdone if you look back last month and this month. If you could remove those outliers it would likely be closer to the real thing.I.e. Nov 29th - large +4 swathIt will most likely verify very closely to the Nov 30th run in my opinion. I'm anxiously awaiting the final run of this month for Jan. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I don't know if there will be snow but have a cup of cheer. Said the Snowman from the North Pole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Indices are looking up, we actually have the AO forecasted at least neutral with the NAO and EPO to take a dive. The Euro is on our side. I believe unless we see some fantasy storms on the globals, this forum won't be happy. So I'm hoping fora Christmas miracle fantasy snow today!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I just want to see a good pattern set up. If we get a good pattern and still don't get snow - so what. At least we have a >5% chance, unlike trying to thread the needle on a perfectly timed/placed LP-vs-HP hybrid Miller B ice to rain setup. Someone brought up the SSTs, which is very interesting. The whole Atlantic is bathwater (but not the sloshy kind) so it makes sense than basically the entire Atlantic ocean houses a massive ridge, stopping the western trough (which may be responding to the massive cold pool of water in the eastern Pacific.) from rolling east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 12z a little colder around NYE and day timeframe, fwiw lots of big cutters! And some rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.