CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: VA/NC border will ultimately be the battleground in my opinion when the cold fights the SER in January. South of there it will take a west based NAO to break through. Seen it before, north of that boundary there will be snow, but in the CAD areas of NC you will get IP/ZR due to the low level cold air drainage. This was my initial thought on this winter.... above normal chance of damming and wedges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 That image I posted was 0z. 12z is even worse, (and consistent). It's time to step away from the models for a week fella's. They 8-10 day mean probably isn't going to look pretty considering the Day 8-9 torch. It's only until Day 10+ that things look decent on the means. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jon said: It's only until Day 10+ that things look decent on the means. Isn't it always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Isn't it always. Yep. But this time it's real cold, so I have no doubt it will migrate east. Likely transient, but at least we will have a shot at something. My point was posting an 8-10 day mean isn't very telling for the month of January. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Wasnt there another shot of "real cold" earlier this month that never made it here ? I think temps stayed in the 20s for highs in Dallas and we couldnt even manage temps below 35 for overnight lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 You guys should be pretty happy with the d10-15 EPS run. Low heights across all of Canada and most importantly near NF. MSLP panels show hp spread across the north of our regions and confluent flow. It's a pretty nice overrunning/cad signal. Prob the best we've seen yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 looks great to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You guys should be pretty happy with the d10-15 EPS run. Low heights across all of Canada and most importantly near NF. MSLP panels show hp spread across the north of our regions and confluent flow. It's a pretty nice overrunning/cad signal. Prob the best we've seen yet. Well thats nice for the Carolinas I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 15 minutes ago, Jon said: They 8-10 day mean probably isn't going to look pretty considering the Day 8-9 torch. It's only until Day 10+ that things look decent on the means. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'll take a look at the innards of a persimmon seed for a 10+ day forecast with about the same confidence as looking at the ensemble means for that timeframe. Nothing to be gleaned from a post 10 day model output, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Wasnt there another shot of "real cold" earlier this month that never made it here ? I think temps stayed in the 20s for highs in Dallas and we couldnt even manage temps below 35 for overnight lows. No sure about that. We had highs multiple times in the 20's and lows in the teens several times even a low of 9 degrees once. We have had multiple cold outbreaks this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Earlier I thought we all new that mid month was when we where really going to have to wait for on something really positive and not just transient. Sure the models had a great look to lose it after NY but still some on here thought the models where just rushing the pattern change. We still have a nice looking shot of cold air in 4 to 5 days. Yes it's transient but it shakes things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 18z is always fun. Drops a lobe down into MN with a NAO/EPO on roids... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 The troughing on the west coast is dang impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Earlier I thought we all new that mid month was when we where really going to have to wait for on something really positive and not just transient. Sure the models had a great look to lose it after NY but still some on here thought the models where just rushing the pattern change. We still have a nice looking shot of cold air in 4 to 5 days. Yes it's transient but it shakes things up. "Transient" if the word of the winter. The only pattern that repeats around here is +++AN/cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 On another note, what's up with this horizontally-oriented troughs the models keep showing as opposed to vertically-oriented ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 20 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Well thats nice for the Carolinas I guess. The baroclinic zone should carve further south with each front and we're moving into prime time for depth of troughs. Of course the further south you go the more things needs to go right but things could look a whole lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The baroclinic zone should carve further south with each front and we're moving into prime time for depth of troughs. Of course the further south you go the more things needs to go right but things could look a whole lot worse. Yes and they have looked worst. I think a lot of people forget about last year or even 2012/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Wasnt there another shot of "real cold" earlier this month that never made it here ? I think temps stayed in the 20s for highs in Dallas and we couldnt even manage temps below 35 for overnight lows. We stayed below freezing for over 40 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: We stayed below freezing for over 40 hours The cold air just couldnt make it over the mountains here in GA. I'm talking about the arctic front last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 decent look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Yeah, looks like the end of the first week of January is a good opportunity. And that is what our winters here typically are, one of opportunites. We don't have to have a great pattern all month or temps in the teens to get an opportunity for a good storm. It could be 70 one week, and an opportunity could come the next for snow. That's how it has always been here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 11 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: decent look. Oh what a difference 50 miles makes on a fantasy map ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I'll take a look at the innards of a persimmon seed for a 10+ day forecast with about the same confidence as looking at the ensemble means for that timeframe. Nothing to be gleaned from a post 10 day model output, IMO.That's fine, I think there's lots to learn post 240hrs on modeling. Ensembles for one, but sometimes the Operational or even controls can sniff out patterns before the ensembles. I have a classic case of this when I was posting on PV drop a couple of years back, little tipsy from eggnog so Year is escaping me but it was the year that made the polar vortex a thing in media - the Euro control was the first one to "see" it. Pretty much showed what the 18z showed tonight, then all operationals and ensembles followed suit- yet it was the control Day 13-15 that sniffed it out first.I'm not saying trust 300+ hour operationals, but looking at trends is important. I love the 8-10 day means, btw, from PSU ewall. But I love forecasting patterns, I could care less once the storm arrives....so 10-15 day is big for me, but I understand if not all see it that way. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 On another note, what's up with this horizontally-oriented troughs the models keep showing as opposed to vertically-oriented ones?Orientation of the Alaskan ridge. Get true -EPO with a neutral to positive PNA and it will be more vertically centered, if you will. It's La Niña in its truest form...but that doesn't mean we can't get a +PNA look after Day 8-10, just have to wait. As always!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 11 minutes ago, Jon said: That's fine, I think there's lots to learn post 240hrs on modeling. Ensembles for one, but sometimes the Operational or even controls can sniff out patterns before the ensembles. I have a classic case of this when I was posting on PV drop a couple of years back, little tipsy from eggnog so Year is escaping me but it was the year that made the polar vortex a thing in media - the Euro control was the first one to "see" it. Pretty much showed what the 18z showed tonight, then all operationals and ensembles followed suit- yet it was the control Day 13-15 that sniffed it out first. I'm not saying trust 300+ hour operationals, but looking at trends is important. I love the 8-10 day means, btw, from PSU ewall. But I love forecasting patterns, I could care less once the storm arrives....so 10-15 day is big for me, but I understand if not all see it that way. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I understand the difference between the operational and the ensembles. What is the "control"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 25 minutes ago, Jon said: But I love forecasting patterns, I could care less once the storm arrives....so 10-15 day is big for me, J- You and I think much alike fwiw!- Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 hours ago, packbacker said: 18z is always fun. Drops a lobe down into MN with a NAO/EPO on roids... Now that is happy hour. That would be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 hour ago, pcbjr said: Oh what a difference 50 miles makes on a fantasy map ... That represents one of the few times the SER is money. The ol squeeze play. Only 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 hour ago, Jon said: That's fine, I think there's lots to learn post 240hrs on modeling. Ensembles for one, but sometimes the Operational or even controls can sniff out patterns before the ensembles. I have a classic case of this when I was posting on PV drop a couple of years back, little tipsy from eggnog so Year is escaping me but it was the year that made the polar vortex a thing in media - the Euro control was the first one to "see" it. Pretty much showed what the 18z showed tonight, then all operationals and ensembles followed suit- yet it was the control Day 13-15 that sniffed it out first. I'm not saying trust 300+ hour operationals, but looking at trends is important. I love the 8-10 day means, btw, from PSU ewall. But I love forecasting patterns, I could care less once the storm arrives....so 10-15 day is big for me, but I understand if not all see it that way. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I believe that was January 2014. I remember people where like that will never happen. That will never make it. The Euro crushed the GFS with that pattern. The Euro had it days before the GFS did. I remember the could not's turned into daytime temps dropping to zero and lows in the negative teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: SER is money bad money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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