Mid-Long Range Discussion 2016-2017

[packbacker]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

When the AMO goes negative again.  Its relatively clear cut historically how relatively snowless and mild the winters and hot the summers are in the SE during the warm AMO

Yep...probably got few more years left on this cycle, got a lot of work to do though.  

Cool AMO RDU avg almost 9" seasonal snowfall.

Warm AMO dropped to 5.5".  

NAO problems. 

[Cold Rain]

12 minutes ago, packbacker said:

We got some serious SER problems...LOL.  It can't last forever...can it. 

Nah.  Probably only until April.

[packfan98]

15 minutes ago, nam0806 said:

I didn't realize this was a prediction thread.

Something I've noticed a lot of (and I have to add to it somewhat, because I think it is necessary), is a lot of banter in what is supposed to be a thread that people are learning from. Seeing posts that provide no scientific basis for predictions, just say "this is what we will get because I said so", doesn't help the reader learn anything from the site.

If you're going to post on this thread - make it somewhat constructive - not satire, providing predictions with no reasoning behind it, etc. I've learned a lot from this forum, so let's keep it that way. 

Best post of the day!  Thank you, and many of us agree. It's a shame that some are allowed to clog up this discussion thread with garbage posts. 

[burrel2]

Another day of modeling and the 8 to 10 day timeframe looks just as bad as yesterday. This look is not good for us and won't translate to colder in the east unless those two ridges connect over Northern Canada, and the models seem to have dropped that idea for now.

So with that being said, the 8 to 10 day pattern looks terrible for us, and seemingly after that the blocking will most likely fade and the entire conus will probably go above normal for a while.  So, we are realistically looking at almost no chance for snow in the south east through the 10th of January, IMO.

[LithiaWx]

48 minutes ago, packbacker said:

That's how it done EPS!   #wbNAO

Strong 50/50 low signal right there with nice blocking. 

[packbacker]

26 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Another day of modeling and the 8 to 10 day timeframe looks just as bad as yesterday. This look is not good for us and won't translate to colder in the east unless those two ridges connect over Northern Canada, and the models seem to have dropped that idea for now.

So with that being said, the 8 to 10 day pattern looks terrible for us, and seemingly after that the blocking will most likely fade and the entire conus will probably go above normal for a while.  So, we are realistically looking at almost no chance for snow in the south east through the 10th of January, IMO.

Well we more or less going to repeat what we saw in Dec, but with a potentially a stronger aleutian ridge.   So yeah, unless we get something to squash the SER it could be tough.  

[jshetley]

The 18z GFS is MUCH, MUCH warmer and shows plenty of 60-70 degree temps in the southeast. The real cold air is WAY north. This run is much closer to what will be happening, except it is much to wet. You can take 90% or more of that precip off to get reality. Jan is 10000% done in the southeast. Got to wait until Feb.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

5 minutes ago, jshetley said:

The 18z GFS is MUCH, MUCH warmer and shows plenty of 60-70 degree temps in the southeast. The real cold air is WAY north. This run is much closer to what will be happening, except it is much to wet. You can take 90% or more of that precip off to get reality. Jan is 10000% done in the southeast. Got to wait until Feb.

Feb is usually our month anyway. It's always a bonus if we get anything in Jan.

[Jon]

The 18z GFS is MUCH, MUCH warmer and shows plenty of 60-70 degree temps in the southeast. The real cold air is WAY north. This run is much closer to what will be happening, except it is much to wet. You can take 90% or more of that precip off to get reality. Jan is 10000% done in the southeast. Got to wait until Feb.

Jesus Christ troll this is why I'm going to another forum. You all can't be happy with anything. You live in the SE - get over it. January isn't 1000% done, it hasn't even started.


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[mackerel_sky]

8 minutes ago, jshetley said:

The 18z GFS is MUCH, MUCH warmer and shows plenty of 60-70 degree temps in the southeast. The real cold air is WAY north. This run is much closer to what will be happening, except it is much to wet. You can take 90% or more of that precip off to get reality. Jan is 10000% done in the southeast. Got to wait until Feb.

That was ugly! Only people that will like that run is Pack and Asheville. Com, or whomever

[packbacker]

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

That was ugly! Only people that will like that run is Pack and Asheville. Com, or whomever

Don't lump me into that...although I won't hate it :-)

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Jon said:

Jesus Christ troll this is why I'm going to another forum. You all can't be happy with anything. You live in the SE - get over it. January isn't 1000% done, it hasn't even started.


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Lol it is getting rediculous around here. 

[Jon]

Pack - The weeklies look amazing and say forget the 12z EPS and get ready for blocking Day 10-15 and sustained ridge on west coast with a beast -EPO for the entire month of Jan. Buuuut they initialized Jan 11 2017, so something is wrong with the data. Hopefully only the date is wrong and not the output, cause this run is amazing.


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[DopplerWx]

2 minutes ago, Jon said:

Jesus Christ troll this is why I'm going to another forum. You all can't be happy with anything. You live in the SE - get over it. January isn't 1000% done, it hasn't even started.


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the forum is quickly becoming a contest as to who can out-troll the rest when it comes to winter wx.  absolutely awful and makes the board near unreadable.

[Cary_Snow95]

Yeah mods need to step in at some point. This forum has gone to garbage. I'm also leaving. Y'all have fun trolling and being pessimistic. 

[packbacker]

Weeklies say what Nina...big PAC/aleutian low with +PNA and trough in east weeks 3, 4. 

[packbacker]

1 minute ago, Jon said:

Pack - The weeklies look amazing and say forget the 12z EPS and get ready for blocking Day 10-15 and sustained ridge on west coast with a beast -EPO for the entire month of Jan. Buuuut they initialized Jan 11 2017, so something is wrong with the data. Hopefully only the date is wrong and not the output, cause this run is amazing.


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Hah...just posted that too.  Quite the Nino pattern.  

[Met1985]

3 minutes ago, Jon said:

Pack - The weeklies look amazing and say forget the 12z EPS and get ready for blocking Day 10-15 and sustained ridge on west coast with a beast -EPO for the entire month of Jan. Buuuut they initialized Jan 11 2017, so something is wrong with the data. Hopefully only the date is wrong and not the output, cause this run is amazing.


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Again mid month people. Just be patient. Thanks Jon.

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, jshetley said:

The 18z GFS is MUCH, MUCH warmer and shows plenty of 60-70 degree temps in the southeast. The real cold air is WAY north. This run is much closer to what will be happening, except it is much to wet. You can take 90% or more of that precip off to get reality. Jan is 10000% done in the southeast. Got to wait until Feb.

It's an OP run.  Click through the last 6-8 runs and you will see wild swing.  You cant say much closer to what will happen because the next run will look different.  Even you yourself can't believe what you are putting out.

[pcbjr]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Thanks Jon.

Could not be better said.

[packbacker]

6 minutes ago, Jon said:

Pack - The weeklies look amazing and say forget the 12z EPS and get ready for blocking Day 10-15 and sustained ridge on west coast with a beast -EPO for the entire month of Jan. Buuuut they initialized Jan 11 2017, so something is wrong with the data. Hopefully only the date is wrong and not the output, cause this run is amazing.


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You know what it is, it starts Jan 11th as that when the 0z EPS ends.  Usually weeks 1-2 are the EPS and weeks 3-6 are the weeklies.  Looks like weeks 1-4 on the weeklies are actually weeks 3-6.  

[Jonathan]

Alright, guys. It's time to settle down. For real. Myself included.

I do apologize if I've contributed to the lessening of quality this thread. I've been discouraged, just like a lot of you as well.

BUT...

1) We HAVE to stop letting Op runs of anything dictate our overall attitude on the board. We just can't let them. It's literally ONE of ENDLESS solutions, especially past D5 or so.
2) We can't run away our most knowledgeable posters. We can't let it happen. MOST of you don't even pay for WxBell, so we NEED Jon, pack and others to give us the skinny on the EURO/EPS/Weeklies/etc. We can't let that go away.
3) We do need to clean up this thread. Take out the trash. Hell, if you know you've made a crap post, go back and delete it yourself. Save burns the trouble.
4) We need a panic room, and I'm about to create it. Some of the garbage in here doesn't even belong in the banter thread.

Let's get this thread back on track, SE crew. We're better than this. And like I said, myself included. I will do better.

[Jon]

Alright, guys. It's time to settle down. For real. Myself included.

I do apologize if I've contributed to the lessening of quality this thread. I've been discouraged, just like a lot of you as well.

BUT...

1) We HAVE to stop letting Op runs of anything dictate our overall attitude on the board. We just can't let them. It's literally ONE of ENDLESS solutions, especially past D5 or so.
2) We can't run away our most knowledgeable posters. We can't let it happen. MOST of you don't even pay for WxBell, so we NEED Jon, pack and others to give us the skinny on the EURO/EPS/Weeklies/etc. We can't let that go away.
3) We do need to clean up this thread. Take out the trash. Hell, if you know you've made a crap post, go back and delete it yourself. Save burns the trouble.
4) We need a panic room, and I'm about to create it. Some of the garbage in here doesn't even belong in the banter thread.

Let's get this thread back on track, SE crew. We're better than this. And like I said, myself included. I will do better.

+1.

Start the panic thread, much needed.


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[Jon]

You know what it is, it starts Jan 11th as that when the 0z EPS ends.  Usually weeks 1-2 are the EPS and weeks 3-6 are the weeklies.  Looks like weeks 1-4 on the weeklies are actually weeks 3-6.  

That's incredibly odd. I haven't compared Week 1 of the weeklies with Week 1 of the EPS, have you? I'm on mobile. From what you're saying it sounds like the weeklies used the wrong date to initialize and ran out further than it should

[strongwxnc]

+1.

Start the panic thread, much needed.


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It's called the banter thread. That was the reason it was created several years ago.
I've been round long enough to learn how to skim through posts. I assume others try it. Makes it easy to bypass crap.




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[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, Jon said:

+1.

Start the panic thread, much needed.


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Yes that may help a lot. Like the MA  forum.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

It's called the banter thread. That was the reason it was created several years ago.
I've been round long enough to learn how to skim through posts. I assume others try it. Makes it easy to bypass crap.




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Lol except when every post is crap for a whole page. 

[strongwxnc]

Lol except when every post is crap for a whole page. 

Took me about 20 Secs to read the last page.


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[Jonathan]

4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

It's called the banter thread. That was the reason it was created several years ago.
I've been round long enough to learn how to skim through posts. I assume others try it. Makes it easy to bypass crap.




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Well, I don't even think some of the stuff would even be categorized as proper banter lol. I view the banter thread as sort of an off-topic, not-connected-to-weather type deal. Football, fishing, gardening, small talk, etc.

But I think by our panic room having its own official "title", more folks would be prone to throw the Weather-related negativity in there. 

[Jon]

It's called the banter thread. That was the reason it was created several years ago.
I've been round long enough to learn how to skim through posts. I assume others try it. Makes it easy to bypass crap.




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Yeah, I've been around I know what it's called and guess what? It has lost its utility, so sometime change is good.


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