SN_Lover Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 17 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Get used to this look. It's almost comical, in a depressing, twisted way. Who exactly would "take this look any day?" Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, SN_Lover said: Is that JB's bathtub? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: It *should* look better. But I guess my question is how do we know that cold at D10 is not grossly overdone like it usually is at D10? What's going to make it so this particular D10+ cold pattern makes it into the SE, instead of devolving into the meh-ness of its predecessors so far this winter? Because the GFS and CMC , also say cold! Ignore the Euro and go with the Pioneer !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just can't keep a good ridge down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I'd guess our current best shot per the GEFS would be somewhere in and around the JAN 4-8 frame with that broad trough. Something could sneak through the southern stream under that big trough axis and make a lot of folks happy.It's the only period of remote interest, but SE ridging is lurking in line with persistence. Need more cold press to the SE given normal model tendencies at range to warm, especially this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 8 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Just can't keep a good ridge down... VA/NC border battle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Rather dud of EPS run. Lost the -NAO, muted -EPO which is probably borderline positive day 11 and thus we get our old friend the SER. Stopped looking after day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Rather dud of EPS run. Lost the -NAO, muted -EPO which is probably borderline positive day 11 and thus we get our old friend the SER. Stopped looking after day 12. "We're onto February." -Bill Belichick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, Jonathan said: "We're onto February." -Bill Belichick LOL...yeah, I felt like we were spiking the football on these day 11+ runs and when the CMC-ENS was so different it gives you pause. EPS agrees with CMC-ENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I don't recall anyone calling for a great January or February this year. Most said our best shot was December this year. And well, that's not going to happen. And I'm not saying everyone will get blanked. I just think we need to pull for a "normal" February to salvage winter like we did in 13-14 and 14-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 24 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I don't recall anyone calling for a great January or February this year. Most said our best shot was December this year. And well, that's not going to happen. And I'm not saying everyone will get blanked. I just think we need to pull for a "normal" February to salvage winter like we did in 13-14 and 14-15. You will do fine. It's south of RAH that is concerning. Especially if the PNA stays negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: You will do fine. It's south of RAH that is concerning. Especially if the PNA stays negative I'm not selfish, I want everyone to score! I'll be honest though; with the way our planet is behaving this day in age, so volatile with a thirst for extremes; it honestly wouldn't totally floor me if we all got blanked in the snow accumulation department. It's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You will do fine. It's south of RAH that is concerning. Especially if the PNA stays negative AN Dec; N Jan; BN wet Feb; summer starts in March. My call on here since Oct and I'm sticking to it. (FMBY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 9 minutes ago, Jonathan said: I'm not selfish, I want everyone to score! I'll be honest though; with the way our planet is behaving this day in age, so volatile with a thirst for extremes; it honestly wouldn't totally floor me if we all got blanked in the snow accumulation department. It's not impossible. I agree with that. I think the shut out cut off will be extreme this season. Where it sets up is anyone's guess. I'm sticking to N NC as the dividing line for now. The SER is just too relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I agree with that. I think the shut out cut off will be extreme this season. Where it sets up is anyone's guess. I'm sticking to N NC as the dividing line for now. The SER is just too relentless. I thing we all get blanked south of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Interest was perked with NAO like 0z showed. 12z said nope and here is your SER back. Losing the blocking over the top sucks...oh well it's only weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 That's how it done EPS! #wbNAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Just now, packbacker said: That's how it done EPS! #wbNAO Oh now that looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: That's how it done EPS! #wbNAO Extreme, record-breaking, apocalyptic blocking, and the SE still has normal heights. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Extreme, record-breaking, apocalyptic blocking, and the SE still has normal heights. Haha! A +PNA is simply not in the cards this winter. Not even in fantasy range on a parallel of the GFS model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I've just about given up on ATL ever having a BN month again. 11 straight AN months and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I didn't realize this was a prediction thread. Something I've noticed a lot of (and I have to add to it somewhat, because I think it is necessary), is a lot of banter in what is supposed to be a thread that people are learning from. Seeing posts that provide no scientific basis for predictions, just say "this is what we will get because I said so", doesn't help the reader learn anything from the site. If you're going to post on this thread - make it somewhat constructive - not satire, providing predictions with no reasoning behind it, etc. I've learned a lot from this forum, so let's keep it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Extreme, record-breaking, apocalyptic blocking, and the SE still has normal heights. Haha! We got some serious SER problems...LOL. It can't last forever...can it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 lol I don't get the negative attitude towards the 12z eps . it's much improved vs just a few days ago . shows a nice gradient pattern . hell it just joined the cold party LAST NIGHT. But I guess we can all pick and choose a run that fits our narrative Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: We got some serious SER problems...LOL. It can't last forever...can it. Yeah it can. And it will ! Until April, and then it will probably break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 For such a pathetic and dying Nina still getting Nina forcing. Maybe that fades by end of Jan...personally still not all doom and gloom but be disappointed if we don't see something in Jan. Feb could get ugly if Nina hangs around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 And where does the battle take place? N NC. Ice might be another matter though south of there. That cold is heavy and dense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 4 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I've just about given up on ATL ever having a BN month again. 11 straight AN months and counting. When the AMO goes negative again. Its relatively clear cut historically how relatively snowless and mild the winters and hot the summers are in the SE during the warm AMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 A +PNA is simply not in the cards this winter. Not even in fantasy range on a parallel of the GFS model. we don't need a pna to score ....Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Nope don't need PNA. Do need EPO however. And AO. Throw in a pinch of NAO. Peak climo coming up so lets get this chili in the pot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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