Dec 12 Snow/ice threat

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would think the uppermost level for snow from this is in the 5-7" range, but I doubt we see any 7" reports

I would say it is good for a general 3-6" for most

Lunnenburg will have 10"

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

Lunnenburg will have 10"

Well, there is that... they are the Jay Peak of Massachusetts

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At this point, I'd probably feel pretty safe from any significant mixing north of the MA border...and it's trending better at 12z for the pike region.

 

Any additional questions may arise from the low level cyclogenesis and if it can enhance the precip a bit more as we get closer...also maybe the high comes back a little more too...that will help with frontogenesis and stronger CAD.

Based on Euro and EPS.. N and C Ct are safe

[CoastalWx]

EPS looks good. maybe even a hair colder than op.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on Euro and EPS.. N and C Ct are safe

Yes...unfortunately we cannot blindly follow just one set of guidance at 72 hours. I'd keep the possibility of mixing in there until we get a bit closer...even up at my latitude.

 

That said, you'd rather have that guidance on your side than not.

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes...unfortunately we cannot blindly follow just one set of guidance at 72 hours. I'd keep the possibility of mixing in there until we get a bit closer...even up at my latitude.

 

That said, you'd rather have that guidance on your side than not.

The GFS has my area turning to rain after only about an inch or so. Do you think it's a classic case of it not handling CAD?

[Whineminster]

Will I mix? I wouldn't mind 4" then some dense sleet or mix to lock it in and get a good base going. 

[CoastalWx]

The flatter idea of the GFS at 12z, at least sort of went towards the euro in that sense. So, I think 72hrs out, having the euro op and EPS on your side is a good thing. Now, does that mean the GFS is ignored...NO. Not at 72 hrs out and not when a couple of degrees at 850-925 mean everything.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Zeus said:

You're closing in on 100,00 posts, and the boys and I have gotten together to buy you something to commemorate the occasion.

I'm no good with surprises: it's a toaster. Got your name on it and we'll add the date you hit 100,000 when it comes.

I assume you can take it from there.

Help Scooter Countdown to 100,000 Posts

 

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think it is fair to say that Cape Cod will see no snow accumulations.  Maybe Wednesday is our shot at snow and then Christmas Week.

[klw]

2 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Anyone got a snow map?

BTV does:

http://www.weather.gov/images/btv/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

For some reason the above link shows the map correctly when I do the post but then changes it to a link for a map in October.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think it is fair to say that Cape Cod will see no snow accumulations.  Maybe Wednesday is our shot at snow and then Christmas Week.

You gotta hope that the Euro isn't on to something with regards to Wednesday's deal...cuz if it is nobody is getting anything out of Wed system-way way out to sea.  We'll see if it caves to GFS or Vice Versa???

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You gotta hope that the Euro isn't on to something with regards to Wednesday's deal...cuz if it is nobody is getting anything out of Wed system-way way out to sea.  We'll see if it caves to GFS or Vice Versa???

True

[ORH_wxman]

NAM might be just starting to get a clue...heights quite a bit lower in Quebec so far on 18z run.

[Typhoon Tip]

53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At this point, I'd probably feel pretty safe from any significant mixing north of the MA border...and it's trending better at 12z for the pike region.

 

Any additional questions may arise from the low level cyclogenesis and if it can enhance the precip a bit more as we get closer...also maybe the high comes back a little more too...that will help with frontogenesis and stronger CAD.

agreed - was just coming in to say this is probably all snow pike N and wouldn't shock me either if it's N-ct-ri in on it...  (yes, even upon the cranium of Tolland it wouldn't be surprising)

not sure about over Scooters way because that's awhile on an east wind despite everything we've covered... One thing about the east wind part - this air mass' very newly advected seaward and with the antecedent nature of the air mass being new/high pressue...not sure it's modified in time. 

i'm not trying to just thump the company drum here - it's just that every angle i look at this looks colder to me.  sorry folks - you know me; i don't suffer fools very well and will called a warm spade a warm spade when i see it.  i just don't

heh, could be wrong, sure - but i think it breaks colder. 

one thing i'm noticing in the Euro is that it's trying to relieve storm intensity/guidance with no storm at all - heh.  serioiusly, it's really devolved into a 9 hour waa burst... which frankly, yeah if even broke that way i'd be okay with that because the old squeezed through the compressed flow look is/was always there - sumpin' duh stink about along the way. 

[ajisai]

BOS gets nothing on NAM

 

Wow

[yoda]

1 minute ago, ajisai said:

BOS gets nothing on NAM

 

Wow

Its not nothing... but TT maps show about two inches before everyone goes to rain... NH/VT ftw

[dryslot]

18z NAM pretty robust, That would be a big frontend thump verbatim, Cut those qpf totals by 1/3" though, Has over 1.0"

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

agreed - was just coming in to say this is probably all snow pike N and wouldn't shock me either if it's N-ct-ri in on it...  (yes, even upon the cranium of Tolland it wouldn't be surprising)

not sure about over Scooters way because that's awhile on an east wind despite everything we've covered... One thing about the east wind part - this air mass' very newly advected seaward and with the antecedent nature of the air mass being new/high pressue...not sure it's modified in time. 

i'm not trying to just thump the company drum here - it's just that every angle i look at this looks colder to me.  sorry folks - you know me; i don't suffer fools very well and will called a warm spade a warm spade when i see it.  i just don't

heh, could be wrong, sure - but i think it breaks colder. 

one thing i'm noticing in the Euro is that it's trying to relieve storm intensity/guidance with no storm at all - heh.  serioiusly, it's really devolved into a 9 hour waa burst... which frankly, yeah if even broke that way i'd be okay with that because the old squeezed through the compressed flow look is/was always there - sumpin' duh stink about along the way. 

 

We should start to get a better look at the main energy tonight...but especially tomorrow at 12z when it comes on shore in WA...these usually don't provide wholesale changes these days with the superior satellite data versus a decade ago, but they can still certainly cause some minor variations. It will be interesting to see if there's some sort of a correction when that happens...whatever direction it is in.

 

But yeah, as for the rapid removal of this airmass (on guidance such as the NAM or UKMET)....I'm not seeing it.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Its not nothing... but TT maps show about two inches before everyone goes to rain... NH/VT ftw

I bet BOS doesn't go rain other than drizzle at the end.

[CoastalWx]

925 0C gets to BOS-TOL on the 12z euro.  So we may get some sort of mixed precip issue interior and S of pike perhaps, but the precip is almost done by then. 

 

The final thump Monday morning, looks purely from low level WAA...one of those near 850mb deals. The currier and Ives stuff is well north on the euro from what I can tell. This looks like one of those 3-4 hr snow deals aside from very light stuff overnight Sunday. These low level WAA thumps tend to be short, but can be pretty good.  So if the euro is right, I could see the radar show the Currier and Ives 700 fronto stuff well north in NNE, and then an incoming WAA omega burst moving into SNE. That burst will not last long, but contain most of the QPF..in that 09-15z or so timeframe depending on where you live. 

[ORH_wxman]

Well, we did shift the 850 0C line south about 80 miles in one run on the NAM....only 10 runs to go.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Well, we did shift the 850 0C line south about 80 miles in one run on the NAM....only 10 runs to go.

That sounds right.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I bet BOS doesn't go rain other than drizzle at the end.

Quite possible... and it is the NAM at range as well so as Kevin would say -- we toss

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

We should start to get a better look at the main energy tonight...but especially tomorrow at 12z when it comes on shore in WA...these usually don't provide wholesale changes these says with the superior satellite data versus a decade ago, but they can still certainly cause some minor variations. It will be interesting to see if there's some sort of a correction when that happens...whatever direction it is in.

 

But yeah, as for the rapid removal of this airmass (on guidance such as the NAM or UKMET)....I'm not seeing it.

and to push the perspective a little further ... can we imagine a scenario where 'razor thin' adjustments couldn't mean a bigger ton?  

these fast flow scenarios are buggy for a lot of reasons.  timing and intensity ..and how that averages down stream - ... 50 miles of wiggle is the difference in dosage of prosac.  imagine a public that thinks no snow and gets 6" on a first of the season (sort of..) you get it -

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That sounds right.

FWIW the 15z SREFs were quite a bit colder than the NAM... many with at least some accumulating snow south of the Pike. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

925 0C gets to BOS-TOL on the 12z euro.  So we may get some sort of mixed precip issue interior and S of pike perhaps, but the precip is almost done by then. 

 

The final thump Monday morning, looks purely from low level WAA...one of those near 850mb deals. The currier and Ives stuff is well north on the euro from what I can tell. This looks like one of those 3-4 hr snow deals aside from very light stuff overnight Sunday. These low level WAA thumps tend to be short, but can be pretty good.  So if the euro is right, I could see the radar show the Currier and Ives 700 fronto stuff well north in NNE, and then an incoming WAA omega burst moving into SNE. That burst will not last long, but contain most of the QPF..in that 09-15z or so timeframe depending on where you live. 

Agreed...if this remains as modeled...the radar is probably going to look pretty ugly/shredded for a while on Sunday night and then it probably gets its act together a little bit on Monday morning for a 3 hour moderate burst. Typical advisory system where we are lacking the really good mid-level dynamics for something higher end...if we can trend the high back a little stronger/west again and squeeze that shortwave a bit more south, then we'd probably be back to a warning criteria storm...but we obviously need to see that pretty soon on guidance. Once we get inside 48 hours, it's going to mostly be cosmetic changes.

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS says many of us in SNE up to CNE get 3-6"

[JC-CT]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

no .. i give you credit as not being "simple minded" 

i do, however, equally give you my sympathies for having your mind be dimmed and dumbed by this auto-pilot instant gratification technology we are submerged in.

Plus, the drugs

48 minutes ago, ajisai said:

BOS gets nothing on NAM

 

Wow

BOS gets nothing on the latest RGEM either. Bummer

[Damage In Tolland]