ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro is flatter than 00z. Yeah it will probably be pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Heights in Quebec lower compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Weaker as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 This is actually a pretty decent difference at H5 in the lakes...that is quite a bit less robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 S?W is ab it further north, but sort of stretched or strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 Pretty decent system though as long as expectations are reasonable...looks like a high end advisory type deal in SNE, CNE/Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Similar to GGEM. Flatter and colder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I'm ok locking Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 It would be nice to get the vorticity on the southern edge of the trough a little more robust...that would probably focus the lower level cyclogenesis a bit more to our south which would give us a better thump...yeah, it's getting greedy, but it's not out of the envelope of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 You could see early on at H5 over the mid US that is was strung out and not as consolidated as it compressed and flattened the flow here in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm ok locking Euro. At this point it looks like this is a pretty reasonable solution. Some nuances might shift a bit, but I can't see too many wholesale changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Definitely a better run for SNE this go around on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 It's gonna seek out strong thermal gradient to our south over coast. We good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: I'm ok locking Euro. I think most in our area would take it...it's not a huge system, but 4-6" is nothing to sneeze at on Dec 12th...still pretty early. And there's more in the pipeline most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: S?W is ab it further north, but sort of stretched or strung out. You're closing in on 100,00 posts, and the boys and I have gotten together to buy you something to commemorate the occasion. I'm no good with surprises: it's a toaster. Got your name on it and we'll add the date you hit 100,000 when it comes. I assume you can take it from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I think most in our area would take it...it's not a huge system, but 4-6" is nothing to sneeze at on Dec 12th...still pretty early. And there's more in the pipeline most likely. Still a bit of light snow signal Sunday PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Anyone got a snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Not that can be posted, And Will already gave what it would show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 So is this a snow to ice, snow to rain, or just snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, ajisai said: So is this a snow to ice, snow to rain, or just snow event? Euro is probably a straight snow event...maybe some drizzle on the coast right as it ends...maybe. GGEM prob the same...GFS would be snow to ending as rain. Interior might get a bit of ZR in the GFS scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is probably a straight snow event...maybe some drizzle on the coast right as it ends...maybe. GGEM prob the same...GFS would be snow to ending as rain. Interior might get a bit of ZR in the GFS scenario. Within 72hrs at this point, that's about the extent of the euro's wheelhouse, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said: Within 72hrs at this point, that's about the extent of the euro's wheelhouse, isn't it? Yeah...there's still some nuances though that can change this a bit...but I'd be pretty shocked if at least the BOS-ORH corridor and maybe 40 miles either side didn't at least get 2" out of this (actually you can probably extend to the north another 50 miles on top of that)...now whether we get 2-4" and a flip to rain or a straight 4-6" with little or no mixing, remains to be seen I think. There's also still a chance this could trend a little more robust...if we get a more defined low level wave developing to the southwest and enhancing our frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 Very nice, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think most in our area would take it...it's not a huge system, but 4-6" is nothing to sneeze at on Dec 12th...still pretty early. And there's more in the pipeline most likely. in the words of "The Fonz" -- "Exactomundo" Even the GFS hands this one right over to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I'll take Colder/Weaker vs. Amped/Warmer FMBY FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It's gonna seek out strong thermal gradient to our south over coast. We good I like Crankys theory. Euro shows that enhancement in NCT from Litchfield to you. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 1 hour ago, Zeus said: You're closing in on 100,00 posts, and the boys and I have gotten together to buy you something to commemorate the occasion. I'm no good with surprises: it's a toaster. Got your name on it and we'll add the date you hit 100,000 when it comes. I assume you can take it from there. Your Tequila would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Now that I'm looking at this from over the top of the transparent cumulus towers rising above my morning coffee, ... I still see everything the same way - not that you asked or know inherently what that 'same way' means. The satellite altitude broad-scoped perspective of this scenario suggests it would be unwise, more so than usual ( relative to respective lead-time frames) to focus on a given cycle/solution from x-y-z model. Verbatim, most guidance have gental isentropic lift associated with early WAA streaming way, waaay out ahead of the main impulse. That should impart thickening clouds through the weekend and probably Sunday ends up calm and gray with maybe dim orbed sun completely gone by 1 pm or so. The radar for the region is festooned with shredded level 1/2 greens.. but other than a flit of white that catches the eye of a christmas stressed dad walking across the parking lot of a Mall, no one's really reporting. I kind of visualize the day like that. Things coalesce with more importance as the gray tinted dusk settles in and street lamps start slipping teeny plates and individual dentrites... kinda like what ends up on the shoulders of a recovering alcoholic after combing their hair. That should get more obviously inundating overnight and Monday I think is just a snowy commute. Not sure how much but expect inconveniences... The popsicle headache version below: The problem is as has always been for this lead up and scenario, and that is that we have very to extreme cold in mid and lower Canada (and associated low geometric heights). Meanwhile, there are modest summer tendencies refusing to acquiesce to seasonal change along the entire expanse from the SW all the way across into the Atlantic Basin at those ~ latitudes. That is causing a very stressed, high velocity mid level flow and as is usually the case in fast flow regimes .. model's are equally stressed. Errors are no longer at a premium for timing and amplitude regarding how they handle the various events rippling... actually, catapulted through the flow is more like it. I don't buy the NAM's solution (ironically, considering OceanWx and I were just discussing how the NAM should benefit by 10-fold increase in computing power recently brought on line by NCEP et al..) Despite that, the speed of system translation balanced against the amount of cold air in place and most importantly BACK-LOADED by fresh dense polar high while the system razor edges through the flow just underneath makes it both intuitively, and to a great deal logically very hard to believe the NAM would succeed at blithely punching 50 F air clear to CON NH like that (or whatever dream it was sellng...). If that happens above the 900 mb level (it's overall solution) we have an ice storm down here. Even the Euro being similar if perhaps 2 F warmer everywhere, is still prone to increased error despite being now pretty high up the hockey-stick curve of it's skill range. Nevertheless, it seems to have a better respect for boundary layer inhibition associated with that cold air. One aspect that occurs to me; that is all beneath the latitudes of the governing confluence medium that created the high. It's sort of like watching the surface of a river near the bank, where a quasi protected pool near the bank kisses the scream current just out of reach.. You get eddies and so forth along that interface, but the scream current its self never actually changes it's course? That sort of a weak analogy (also) hearkens to why I see the NAM not getting it as far as the fluid-mechanical limitations - the NAM is trying to move the scream current into the pool so to speak. That may be confusing... anyway, we mentioned in the model tech discussion the other day how the NAM and other meso models have become too convention-guided. So...lowering their usefulness at this sort of thing seems plausible based on all that. Anyway, point being ... That high up there is sort of not really part of the main band of ass-hauler westerlies, and so that's going to be wrong more likely in how anything in said band of ass-hauler westerlies interacts along that same sort of interface ...which happens to be us... One thing we know just from conventional experiences (if not a-priori) is that the lowest critical thickness interval (1300 or so metersof which) will be wrong wrong wrong when you have high pressure not only wedged in, but STILL THERE while the maelstrom carries about overhead. That's ur mantra folks - don't forget it. What is that supposed to mean? Higher rates of dandruff amongst recovering alcoholics? New to me- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2016 Author Share Posted December 9, 2016 At this point, I'd probably feel pretty safe from any significant mixing north of the MA border...and it's trending better at 12z for the pike region. Any additional questions may arise from the low level cyclogenesis and if it can enhance the precip a bit more as we get closer...also maybe the high comes back a little more too...that will help with frontogenesis and stronger CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2016 Share Posted December 9, 2016 I would think the uppermost level for snow from this is in the 5-7" range, but I doubt we see any 7" reports I would say it is good for a general 3-6" for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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