dendrite Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: RGEM is ice cold at 48. Has accumulating snow way south into PHilly and SNJ.Even a bit south of there. You can see where this is heading today. Good signal Maybe if you weenie it just a little bit more mother nature will give you a jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Looks like borderline warning criteria here with almost every run. The GFS forcing is a little meh though...have been leaning 4-7" here. Nice event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Maybe if you weenie it just a little bit more mother nature will give you a jackpot! Lunenburg takes issue... There just isn't a huge amount of moisture to wring out much more than 5" anywhere Some moose in Maine might wake up with 7" on his antlers but I think that's a stretch. I will be happy with a freshening and a plowable, but nothing siggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe if you weenie it just a little bit more mother nature will give you a jackpot! Just stating what the Rgem shows. Congrats on 2-4 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats on 2-4 there He'll get more. Kind of a garbage system for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Compared to last December, I welcome with open arms, Monday rough commute ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He'll get more. Kind of a garbage system for you. 3-6 ending as ice is fine for me Builds glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3-6 ending as ice is fine for me Builds glacier Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lol. If one person says 1-3" and another says 3-6" and someone maxes at 3", they can both take credit for the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lol. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Nice look, Jeff. I imagine with that range you might have watches hoisted. Even though the 6" misses the threshold, it's close enough for government work. Thanks, I'm leaning 5-6" here, Models have been steadfast in that range over the last couple days and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 The models have a pretty good burst coming into SNE at 09z, timed with significant warming. That's the omega thump Will and I were talking about yesterday. I guess that's the feature that could sneak in a 4 of 5 spot in SNE an south of the pike interior locations that will fight 850 warming, but cold enough at the srfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The models have a pretty good burst coming into SNE at 09z, timed with significant warming. That's the omega thump Will and I were talking about yesterday. I guess that's the feature that could sneak in a 4 of 5 spot in SNE an south of the pike interior locations that will fight 850 warming, but cold enough at the srfc. Are you expecting the colder trend to continue today with things coming more in line with Rgem, or are they leveled off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The models have a pretty good burst coming into SNE at 09z, timed with significant warming. That's the omega thump Will and I were talking about yesterday. I guess that's the feature that could sneak in a 4 of 5 spot in SNE an south of the pike interior locations that will fight 850 warming, but cold enough at the srfc. If a 'spot' is sneaking 4 or 5, are you expecting closer to 2-3" being the more basic coverage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Are you expecting the colder trend to continue today with things coming more in line with Rgem, or are they leveled off? It wouldn't shock me if models trend a bit cooler inland with srfc temps, but I don't see things changing overall. I suppose it could, but I think the low level warming...like 850 and below isn't getting denied. This isn't a classic SWFE. There really is no warm tongue in that 800-700 layer. It's all low level warming from lousy high placement, parent low well NW and a weaker CAD signal. So the bust potential on the snowy side may not be a good idea. However, if the whole system were to come in weak and further south...that's the only real way to get a snowier scenario, at least for those south of pike. But, there are things like those bursts of stronger lift that can squeeze out an extra inch or two in those questionable areas that I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: If a 'spot' is sneaking 4 or 5, are you expecting closer to 2-3" being the more basic coverage? You have a good shot of 4-5 or so at Pit 1. Maybe even a bit more. You're locked for the cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It wouldn't shock me if models trend a bit cooler inland with srfc temps, but I don't see things changing overall. I suppose it could, but I think the low level warming...like 850 and below isn't getting denied. This isn't a classic SWFE. There really is no warm tongue in that 800-700 layer. It's all low level warming from lousy high placement, parent low well NW and a weaker CAD signal. So the bust potential on the snowy side may not be a good idea. However, if the whole system were to come in weak and further south...that's the only real way to get a snowier scenario, at least for those south of pike. But, there are things like those bursts of stronger lift that can squeeze out an extra inch or two in those questionable areas that I mentioned. So you mean temps getting into the 40's or snow to ice ending as dz at 35? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: So you mean temps getting into the 40's or snow to ice ending as dz at 35? Probably a lot of rotting in the 30s, maybe near 32 in nrn ORH area. But you'll get above 32. Maybe even tickle 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You have a good shot of 4-5 or so at Pit 1. Maybe even a bit more. You're locked for the cold too. Thanks...perhaps I'll hit double digits on the season. And, maybe I'll need to give myself a work-from-home day on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks...perhaps I'll hit double digits on the season. And, maybe I'll need to give myself a work-from-home day on Monday. Your probably looking at the same totals i am out there Mike, Models have been spitting out the same qpf basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Probably a lot of rotting in the 30s, maybe near 32 in nrn ORH area. But you'll get above 32. Maybe even tickle 40. I'll take under on 40's . If cold trend continues like it did overnight low -mid 30's briefly. At at any rate fun times ahead for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks...perhaps I'll hit double digits on the season. And, maybe I'll need to give myself a work-from-home day on Monday. If things are timed right, I'll drive to work before the storm really gets cranking and come home after the worst, with the roads well treated. Of course, some nervous Nellie in State government may decide to turn us loose at noon, so several thousand commuters launch into the heaviest snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, tamarack said: If things are timed right, I'll drive to work before the storm really gets cranking and come home after the worst, with the roads well treated. Of course, some nervous Nellie in State government may decide to turn us loose at noon, so several thousand commuters launch into the heaviest snowfall. lol, That's government at its finest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Are we talking a 3:00 am or so start Monday morning in SNE areas? ...or earlier Sunday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Are we talking a 3:00 am or so start Monday morning in SNE areas? ...or earlier Sunday afternoon? Maybe a few flakes on Sunday...but this is really a early morning Monday thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Are we talking a 3:00 am or so start Monday morning in SNE areas? ...or earlier Sunday afternoon? Nam has it starting in western areas at 0z Monday, But these seem to start earlier then modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 12k and 4K NAM both with another south colder tick from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 Is this going to be all snow north of the Pike type of deal? NAM looks pretty juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 4 minutes ago, MarkO said: Is this going to be all snow north of the Pike type of deal? NAM looks pretty juicy This is what the NAM has for p-type: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2016 Share Posted December 10, 2016 NAM has that weenie band in RI and eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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