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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

None taken ... that's the point, 'dark wit'

it's called commiseration - misery knows it's company. it's a literary tool for humor under the dark shadow of a situation that really could use some levity to brighten things up...

it's kinda sorta hard to do that with 1/3rd the as many words - i'm suppose it could be done but it loses some affectation that way.  no worries...

Shakespeare got nuttin' on you, you silver tongued devil... Now, bring us a snowstorm!

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It hasn't been that bad in the snow dept. I'm only down several inches and that can get made up. Snowpack wise we haven't held onto it much..but that's how it goes sometimes.

Truth. By duddiness I sorta meant that there's talk of moderation for the month. 

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1 minute ago, Googlymoogly said:

noted. so you think this winter's duddiness is on the rise?

Well...seein' as we must be subjective in our praise...

That depends how we define "dud"  ...  Not that anyone asked, but part of me can't even get into that; like mathematically, my mind won't get there. Because that sector of my intelligence can't seem to find the course that doesn't lead completely off a pointless cliff..  In fact, this whole labeling and grading winter seasons for that matter; like they were recalcitrant adolescents or something, that were naughty because they didn't snow so they get a brown star on their report card... That'll teach 'em.  It's a all venturing into weird enigma in the first place.  

buuuut, the hypocrisy in me is one that can't let go of the romanticism, and equally senses the morbid pleasure in doing so..  hmm.  as well as an outright lust for those types of dystopian forces that can and sometimes do cut through human presumption and entitlements.  like... starring BIG tsunamis! Later on, we'll venture out into the timeless parable, 'frozen mitten sticks out of early March snow bank'  Followed by the award winning Comet impact... Yes, it's lineup that shatters modern human perception

I dunno - what's a dud?  no snow at all... ? I think the 'snowlessiest' season ever must have seen a flurry here or there.  Plus, it's relative to climo zone, too.  I don't think this year qualifies as a dud in my subjective opinion.  It's not earning any extra-credit if going by that secondary paragraph - no.  

 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Arent the biggest storms favored in february anyway?  They are here. 

Well I think as far as big storms go...I'd rather have them occur in the SST min time. If you are going to have strong NE flow, it would make sense to have it occur when the waters are coldest. We have had some big Jan blockbusters too. I'm sort of reaching here....but I guess you could say Feb is certainly favored in Nino years as we tend to see the mid to later half of winter during Nino years show a tendency for +PNA.

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Need to watch that confluence to the N.  On the 12z GFS a lobe of vorticity rotates S out of the Hudson Bay Area and lowers heights across the northeast just as the storm starts to develop over the southern tier.  If that lifts out sooner we should see the GFS shift N.

Yup.. The slower pace of the 0z vortex gave more time for the confluence to back off and allowed heights to rise more in the east.

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Need to watch that confluence to the N.  On the 12z GFS a lobe of vorticity rotates S out of the Hudson Bay Area and lowers heights across the northeast just as the storm starts to develop over the southern tier.  If that lifts out sooner we should see the GFS shift N.

We only need 300 miles.

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There's a non-insignificant number of GEFS members that are really amped up with wave 2 - would bring snow up into NNE and flip the coastline verbatim. Just another possible solution and shows how much uncertianty there still is and how small changes in the timing of the features can make a big impact.

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4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

For the few of us up in Dendriteland and points north and east the 12Z Euro continues to trend colder for tomorrow nights system.  Some snow down to about Concord NH.  2-3" up here in Northern Lakes Region of NH.  6-10" for the Whites and points north and east....

Good luck with that.

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