USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS digs the first shortwave for Friday better, but still out to sea, and now the main shortwave is super amped up compared to 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, wx2fish said: I pulled up the LEB sounding off that run and that 1000'-1500' layer stays pretty cold. Like you said with his elevation he may get a decent glaze I'm thinking it may be pretty icy even down to here Wed morning. If that secondary can keep advecting in some low level cold out of Maine we could offset some of the latent heating. It's already progged to be about 32-34F as it is. Factor in the typical CAD overperformance and a little extra oomph from the NE flow and maybe it verifies more toward 30-32F. The only thing really against that is that the airmass in Maine isn't exceptionally cold and dry. Looks like the GFS rots me at 33F most of the night and then clears us out at sunrise for some black ice. Either way it could be a slippery commute on the back roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The push northward of GOM moisture has begun around hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is a SNE 3-6" event. It's not a NNE storm Man you're good at 6-7 days out ;). Enjoy the 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 First wave on the GFS is flatter and the second shortwave is getting more pronounced as it inhales GOM moisture. Snow breaks out across the Interior Southeastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I think we get a solid cold and probably reasonably snowy week before things lift out and we ride the line wth at least one snow eating cutter but as scooter has noted, there appears to be a fairly quick reload limiting our time on the line. 1/11-16 looks potentially back and forth but 1/5-11 looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'm thinking it may be pretty icy even down to here Wed morning. If that secondary can keep advecting in some low level cold out of Maine we could offset some of the latent heating. It's already progged to be about 32-34F as it is. Factor in the typical CAD overperformance and a little extra oomph from the NE flow and maybe it verifies more toward 30-32F. The only thing really against that is that the airmass in Maine isn't exceptionally cold and dry. Looks like the GFS rots me at 33F most of the night and then clears us out at sunrise for some black ice. Either way it could be a slippery commute on the back roads. Definitely looks icy for a time there I think. Been trending colder too. If the airmass was a hair colder you'd be getting a pretty good thump. Soundings were closer than I thought, pretty stout CAD right through 850. Stubborn warm tongue above though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS looks like the next weekend storm may develop based on 120 hours pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It looks it still delivers an inverted trough over Cape and Islands. Yes Jerry, the 120 hour prog appears to have favor an EC snowstorm, but too early yet to tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: GFS looks like the next weekend storm may develop based on 120 hours pic. Arkansas is getting hammered with +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS is definitely slower and more amped compared to 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS looks like the next weekend storm may develop based on 120 hours pic. Too much confluence to the north on this run I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Washington DC to NC will get hit with plenty of snow from this system on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John, funny....you hadn't mentioned that gradient yet.. I did actually, though - if you get it conceptually, ".. It's really contributing to why the flow continues to have so many height contours and thus necessarily screaming mid level wind fields everywhere. .." means the same thing the two parameters are 1::1 correlated... increased gradient always means increased velocities - that cannot be physically disassociated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Scott, at least cold air isn't a problem with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Major Ice Storm over my old base at hour 126-132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Wish that northern stream system wasn't outrunning the southern one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Scott, at least cold air isn't a problem with this system. Maybe too much of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Gonna be close. Storm itself is going to be a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 lol...2 different discussions. SNE looking way down the road and I'm looking at tomorrow evening and my ride back from Boston up here on steep dirt roads. GFS again looks colder to me. Like the trend as long as qpf holds off to early evening.. Good luck to you guys down south for later in the week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Congrats Norfolk on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I did actually, though - if you get it conceptually, ".. It's really contributing to why the flow continues to have so many height contours and thus necessarily screaming mid level wind fields everywhere. .." means the same thing the two parameters are 1::1 correlated... increased gradient always means increased velocities - that cannot be physically disassociated If you get it conceptually, you would have sensed that the statement was bathed in sarcasm. jk John....happy new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Congrats Norfolk on this run. Of course in a nne winter.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Not happening for us this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Wish that northern stream system wasn't outrunning the southern one. No help this run, Either need to slow down the northern stream s/w or speed up the southern s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Of course in a nne winter.....lol 693 days and counting since the last winter storm warning in Burlington, VT itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It tries with a late push north as another s/w moves in. It wouldn't need much more help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, eyewall said: 693 days and counting since the last winter storm warning in Burlington, VT itself. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 CMC likes a snowy day Friday-not a big storm but snows lightly all day Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 it's frustrating. it's driving one to distraction ... like, i almost feel these limiting factors that are related to the hyper compression of the flow are in fact so limiting as to render ... all these posts flirting with the epitome of futility - it just seems like nothing's going to happen and we can sum up all energy in even doing this weather social media thing as waste until this prick tease modeled fantasy stops - and it won't happen until the flow relaxes. i'm not willing to be nearly so arrogant - like I said; just frustrating. i am however highly confident that a goodly percentage of storm potential (and the usefulness of our posts), perhaps the top half of it, keeps getting lopped off like stealthy maneuver by a Samurai warrior. yet, we don't learn not to engage in that fight - next model run... rinse repeat. oh i'm sure the 12z Euro do out here soon will go out of its way to bury this sentiment under "qualified hope" - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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