40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 EURO looks a bit different lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 EURO is so boooorrrrrriiiiinnnnggggg.... comparatively speaking. Light to moderator event from first wave; GFS makes the second a big dawg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Euro and CMC like the more strung out look. Still gives snow but no blizzard. GFS is probably overdone but otoh euro did in fact take a big step in that direction tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I would not put all your eggs in the blizzard basket. Just be happy and hopefully for a light to moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 BTW Steve-O.....just having fun with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I would not put all your eggs in the blizzard basket. Just be happy and hopefully for a light to moderate event. I completely expect a strung out POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 And yes it may get more hostile later in the 11-15 day. That's just how it goes. We'll see. It did look like it was trying to raise heights in the pna region right at the tail end. Perhaps it would get better if you extrapolated out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I would not put all your eggs in the blizzard basket. Just be happy and hopefully for a light to moderate event. I'm looking forward to it. Ain't no biggie or blizzard happening in this setup. We'll take our 3-6 and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I'm looking forward to it. Ain't no biggie or blizzard happening in this setup. We'll take our 3-6 and be happy. Well maybe. I'm just saying it so weenies aren't bent out of shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm not expecting a blizzard, but one can only be optimistic with the GFS showing something of noteworthy praise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 By the way the GFS shows 60-knot surface winds to go along with the 19"+ of snow, I don't go by the snow maps because they are always wrong and don't have enough resolution to show snowfall on Cape Cod, especially outer Cape Cod and Nantucket. Coolwx.com shows 19" of snow falling on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6z GFS a little flatter through 126 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 6z GFS backs down from major snowstorm, expected. Let's wait and see what the CMC and EURO do over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: 6z GFS backs down from major snowstorm, expected. Let's wait and see what the CMC and EURO do over the next few days. Gfs para is a big hit like the op 0z gfs 6Z gfs still has it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Yes it still has the storm, but it is too far south and weaker than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 25 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm not expecting a blizzard, but one can only be optimistic with the GFS showing something of noteworthy praise. I'm glad you are being cautious and not expecting a blizzard a week out. You're making progress, James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Does anyone know why BOX still doesn't have an AFD since New Year's Eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 50 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes it still has the storm, but it is too far south and weaker than before. You really think the gfs is going to show the same solution on every run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Does anyone know why BOX still doesn't have an AFD since New Year's Eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 overnight Pac. Sounds hopeful to me. NOW THE UNCERTAINTY... AN ARCTIC UPPER IMPULSE ROUNDING THE LARGE POSITIVE ANOMALY WILL DIG THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS THURS. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE ALREADY DRIVING THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY TO THE EAST COAST... WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/PAC NW. THE SAME COMBO OF GFS/UKMET THEN DRIVE ANOTHER VERY DYNAMIC LOOKING IMPULSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT... WHILE THE ECMWF IS JUST PROGRESSING THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH TO THE ERN SEABOARD AND THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS EXTREMELY SLOWER. THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO FACTOR THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE 500MB LOW NEAR COASTAL WA. THE ECMWF IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE SHEARING-OUT AND BECOMING PART OF THE UNIFORM TROUGH WHICH REACHES THE EAST COAST BY SAT. THE GFS IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE... ORIGINALLY WRAPPING IT IN OR MESHING IT WITH THE LARGE WEAKNESS/ANOMALY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PAC. NOW THE 18Z/01 AND 00Z GFS DOES NOT DO THIS AND ALLOWS THE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS TO GET KICKED OUT BY THE DIGGING FEATURE OVER THE NERN PAC. IN FACT... THE ENERGY KEEPING ITS STRENGTH AS IT PROGRESSES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY... WHICH COULD MEAN A HIGH PROFILE STORM SYSTEM WITH EXTREME DEEPENING OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATL COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 And from the overnight diagnostic. Should there not be enthusiasm in sne? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 ...POTENT SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NORTH-CENTRAL MX TOWARD THE ARKLATEX... ...EVENTUAL STRONG COASTAL LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE FORMERLY A CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CA...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY AROUND THE BIG BEND OF TX WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTH OF EAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/12Z UKMET ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LIKE PRECEDING SYSTEMS...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH DECENT DEEPENING OCCURRING. CONSIDERING THE SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE CAMPS...THE CMC ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN QUICKER WHILE THE GEFS/ECMWF MEMBERS ARE ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO BEHIND. THE MOST STABLE AMONG THE BUNCH HAS BEEN THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS THEY HAVE BEEN IN A SIMILAR LOCATION THE PAST FOUR RUNS DATING BACK TO THE 31/0000Z MODEL CYCLE. THE GEFS HAVE FINALLY CAUGHT ON AFTER OVEREMPHASIZING THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW FOR MULTIPLE CYCLES IN A ROW. WILL LEAN ON THIS ECMWF SUITE STABILITY AND FAVOR A COMBINATION OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: And from the overnight diagnostic. Should there not be enthusiasm in sne? Not for a large event. Too early. Hopefully something light to moderate at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 A reference to a low with extreme deepening moving up the coast? That was strong g language though I realize it is 6-7 days out so all caveats apply. But if the energy comes out strong... Btw very razors edge forecast here Tuesday. Hopefully today's runs clarify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Sorry guys, this is a mid Atlantic/SE storm (day 4) imo--and not a great one at that. Flow looks too fast and confluence too strong for this to round the bend. I hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Sorry guys, this is a mid Atlantic/SE storm imo--and not a great one at that. Flow looks too fast and confluence too strong for this to round the bend. There is some ensemble support, but I'm not on board right now for much even here. It's early and things can change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is some ensemble support, but I'm not on board right now for much even here. It's early and things can change though. Scott, do you have any idea if the colder air will stick around when it arrives end of the week? is it short term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 1 minute ago, 512high said: Scott, do you have any idea if the colder air will stick around when it arrives end of the week? is it short term? My guess is we moderate after the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: My guess is we moderate after the 10th. gosh, ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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