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December 2016 Discussion & Observations


bluewave

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17 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Last nights EPS maintains a snowy pattern

 

38 of 51 ENS support 6+ inches over a 10 day period for most, and 10+ for the interior 

 

also: After a small 1-2 day warm up around Dec 13-15, EPS really pours the cold air back in clean through DEC 20

how warm? and doesn't this conflict with other guidance post-20th?

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Southeast ridge really going to be a problem for us along the coast. Long range looks like cutters or storms just to our north. It will be a struggle along the coast. Looks like cold then warm then back to cold in between storms. NNE going to do well along with upstate NY. 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Southeast ridge really going to be a problem for us along the coast. Long range looks like cutters or storms just to our north. It will be a struggle along the coast. Looks like cold then warm then back to cold in between storms. NNE going to do well along with upstate NY. 

The SE Ridge or WAR has been a problem for the coast during the last 5 Decembers. With the exception of the mid-December 2013 snow, all the significant snowfall for

the coast has held off until JFM. Having the amazing -AO/-NAO and record snowfall for December 2009 and 2010 was a pretty rare feat to pull off two years in a row.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Southeast ridge really going to be a problem for us along the coast. Long range looks like cutters or storms just to our north. It will be a struggle along the coast. Looks like cold then warm then back to cold in between storms. NNE going to do well along with upstate NY. 

Exactly. This pattern is awful for snow unless you are in the far interior northeast and New England. SE ridge and very progressive flow no NAO blocking. Cutter, warm and rain then cold and dry after the cold fropa. Wash, rinse repeat 

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Exactly. This pattern is awful for snow unless you are in the far interior northeast and New England. SE ridge and very progressive flow no NAO blocking. Cutter, warm and rain then cold and dry after the cold fropa. Wash, rinse repeat 

You don't have to go that far... Areas 45+ miles away from the coast already have 5-8" of snow for the season with the potential for more in the next 36 hrs.

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45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Exactly. This pattern is awful for snow unless you are in the far interior northeast and New England. SE ridge and very progressive flow no NAO blocking. Cutter, warm and rain then cold and dry after the cold fropa. Wash, rinse repeat 

Check out the 12z GFS. GFS got rid of the cutters moving forward. Patience my friend.

Very cold air moves into the U.S on the GFS

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55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Exactly. This pattern is awful for snow unless you are in the far interior northeast and New England. SE ridge and very progressive flow no NAO blocking. Cutter, warm and rain then cold and dry after the cold fropa. Wash, rinse repeat 

If the Atlantic continues to remain unfavorable, then we'll need a Pacific thread the needle event to have a shot at near or above normal December snowfall 

for the coast. The coast got lucky in December 2013 and 2008 when the Atlantic didn't cooperate. But there's always  the risk that you don't get the event

and the month finishes with below normal snowfall.

 

2 thread the needle events driven by the Pacific pattern 

12/14/13

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us1214.php

12/19/08

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us1219.php

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the Atlantic continues to remain unfavorable, then we'll need a Pacific thread the needle event to have a shot at near or above normal December snowfall 

at the coast. The coast got lucky in December 2013 and 2008 when the Atlantic didn't cooperate. But you always run the risk that you don't get the event

and the month finishes with below normal snowfall.

 

2 thread the needle events driven by the Pacific pattern 

12/14/13

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us1214.php

12/19/08

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008/us1219.php

 

The '13 event had some brutally cold air in here which helped-took longer than models had predicted for it to be scoured out-we had 6 inches of snow covered by a close to a half inch of ice on top.

'08 event here was all snow, but the rain line stopped just south of me....

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The SE Ridge or WAR has been a problem for the coast during the last 5 Decembers. With the exception of the mid-December 2013 snow, all the significant snowfall for

the coast has held off until JFM. Having the amazing -AO/-NAO and record snowfall for December 2009 and 2010 was a pretty rare feat to pull off two years in a row.

Perhaps we can pull off a 2008 with a front end dump before a change to rain along the coast. The cold air will be around next week 

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