PackGrad05 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 The 18Z GFS took it way further north closer to Wilmington before turning. Gotta keep an eye on the model trends later tonight. Could be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, pcbjr said: Been out of the loop all day - what solution is this? Anything that keeps us out of the storm? It will be bad regardless, but won't really be destructive unless the eye wall comes ashore. If the eye stays 40 miles or so offshore, the effects won't be that horrendous. Anything above cat 1 would be in the eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thesolmachine Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Last few frames definitely show an almost due westward movement. Wow, It's been doing that for a few frames too. What is the steering force pushing it back to the North? Sorry for being a noob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, Thesolmachine said: Wow, It's been doing that for a few frames too. What is the steering force pushing it back to the North? Sorry for being a noob. Follow the outer eyewall for a more real system motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 These hour by hour jogs are standard operating procedure for intense canes moving through island chains, or even over open ocean, what would be more significant would be sustained jogs over 3-6 hours. I would not focus too much on the westward jog, you can be almost 100% certain a northwest motion will resume very soon. Grand Bahama Island may be the reason for the jog in terms of disrupting the circulation very slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 i would stick with higher res models if you're going to use models at all at this point (euro, rgem, hrrr, even the 4k nam). i am not sure how the gfs could be onto something simply by offering it as a solution. the degrees to how far and where the center touches the shoreline vary, but the suite of high res and better performing (euro) models all bring a portion of the eye onshore. to say it's too soon to say "all clear" is an oddly worded statement. we are still much closer to coastal disaster than anything approaching "all clear." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Not sure how accurate this is (wunderground says the station has been offline for 31hrs, which makes no sense), but Freeport's station (not the buoy) is reporting 100mph sustained winds with gusts to 120. https://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.1.78062 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Outer eyewall is winning the battle, constricting inner one into a deadly embrace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Unless Matthew is screaming up the coast, it won't travel in a perfectly straight line paralleling the coast.... thus even if the models never make landfall, the trochoidal wobbles, will certainly increase the chances of multiple landfalls if indeed Matthew rides just offshore by 20 or 30 miles... Nevertheless I think the East Coast of Florida from Melbourne northward will periodically at least be in the western eye wall... ... and that is not even mentioning the often difficult to model land interaction of a core so close to land.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 65 knots sustained, 76 knot gusts from the Freeport buoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 IEW convection notably weaker on radar. Pressure is up 3mb on last pass. Looks like it is losing the fight pretty quickly now. Sat shows the eye clouding back over as well (after briefly clearing out). I think the OEW will begin to take over. Hard to know how long that'll take, but there's unfortunately enough time for him to complete the ERC before land interaction. (Also, this wobble west of the OEW is going to put him back on track with the offc. forecast -- this is why you don't "ruler" wobbling hurricanes). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Pressure fall about 9 mbs past hour at that wind tower (it's not actually a buoy, it's on land at the entrance to West End harbor, pretty much at the northwest tip of Grand Bahama Island). Also available in that report, 20m winds (72 knots) and peak gust of previous hour at the primary 10m height (in this case 85 knots). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 If you trace the path from just west of Nassau to its current position, it's on track to make landfall around Cape Canaveral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Convection blew up again on radar. It's just going through the cycles like it has all day, only now we can see it on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Just now, csnavywx said: IEW convection notably weaker on radar. Pressure is up 3mb on last pass. Looks like it is losing the fight pretty quickly now. Sat shows the eye clouding back over as well (after briefly clearing out). I think the OEW will begin to take over. Hard to know how long that'll take, but there's unfortunately enough time for him to complete the ERC before land interaction. (Also, this wobble west of the OEW is going to put him back on track with the offc. forecast -- this is why you don't "ruler" wobbling hurricanes). The outer eyewall is much larger in size. Wouldn't the ERC put it closer to land? The OEW looks pretty close to me. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AMX-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 LEK makes a very important point that outside readers (emergency management interests for example) should note -- the cane will not just move along steady-state along a smooth path, there will be wobbles and rotations of eyewall features, what is true at one point may not be the case fifty miles north. Hence this becomes a nowcast situation even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 935mb on the most recent recon pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 935mb on the most recent recon pass. Extrapolated. Dropsonde has been 2 or 3 mb higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 One of the coolest features of the near shore-parallel approach angle is getting all this great radar data on a ERC. Plus / minus on number of graduate theses that use this data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Guy on CNN just saw a tornado spun off from the outerbands... Crazy. I will say, while the inner core of this storm has been small, it has a large circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 113 kts surface winds from dropsonde during this last pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: 113 kts surface winds from dropsonde during this last pass. 129kt at 935mb.. Which is only 9mb up from the surface on that dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I know there's an obs thread but I think we should log the highest gusts at land stations in FL each hour. 22z (6 pm EDT) 42 mph (north) at West Palm Beach and 41 mph (northeast) at Vero Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, wxmx said: 113 kts surface winds from dropsonde during this last pass. This was recorded about 20 miles south of Freeport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 hour ago, adelphi_sky said: Long time lurker. I have noticed that there is a lot of extrapolating from current headings as if Matthew's current trajectory won't be influenced an hour, two, three, or 8 hours from now by the same atmospheric patterns that are steering it now. We've gone from cone-watching to micro-adjustments and making predictions off of the micro-adjustments. I thought that was a no-no in these threads. I've heard very little on the overall patterns guiding Matthew today. It's on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Incredible battle between the inner and outer. Outer looks wicked right now. biggest eye to make landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Seems like the outer eye wall is shrinking. Signs of strengthening, after the ERC is complete (if it ever is complete.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Dropsonde held it at 939mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 26 minutes ago, Thesolmachine said: Wow, It's been doing that for a few frames too. What is the steering force pushing it back to the North? Sorry for being a noob. Eyewall convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 21 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Unless Matthew is screaming up the coast, it won't travel in a perfectly straight line paralleling the coast.... thus even if the models never make landfall, the trochoidal wobbles, will certainly increase the chances of multiple landfalls if indeed Matthew rides just offshore by 20 or 30 miles... Nevertheless I think the East Coast of Florida from Melbourne northward will periodically at least be in the western eye wall... ... and that is not even mentioning the often difficult to model land interaction of a core so close to land.... Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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